Monday, September 6

Over/Under NFL Win Totals

It's no secret that we here at FCF enjoy a little sports gambling. Well, recreational sports gambling - after all, betting on sports is illegal in this country...

With that in mind, we'll get ready for NFL kickoff by taking a look at all the NFL win totals, and making an over/under pick.

Note: Because there are odds on these win totals, we'll pretend that we're putting $100 on each pretend bet, and I'll calculate totals at the end of the season.

Arizona Cardinals -- 7.5 wins
Over -140, Under +110
Andy: Under. I can't take the over on a team actually conducting a quarterback competition between Leinart and Anderson.
Figgs: Over. I'm kinda banking on them keeping Leinart here and not starting DA, but they're still in a poor division and have lots of talent.
Nick: Under. Arizona has a solid club, but they're too spooky at QB for me to give -140 here.
gopo: Under. I can't take the over on a team that feels Derek Anderson won a QB competition.

Atlanta Falcons -- 9.5 wins
Over -115, Under -115
Andy: Over. I think the Dirty Birds can touch 10.
Figgs: Under. That's right where I would have put the line, I see them at 9 or 10 wins. Touche Vegas.
Nick: Under. I like the ATL this year, but this seems like 1/2 or 1 win too high.
gopo: Under. I think they'll end up at 9 wins - too many ifs for me to go over: Ryan taking a leap, Turner staying healthy, players starting to refer to themselves as Dirty Birds again...

Baltimore Ravens -- 10 wins
Over -120, Under -110
Andy: Over. [Grimaces.] Am I the only one tired of these fuckers being good every year?
Figgs: Over.
Nick: Over. Unfortunately I have a tough time seeing the Ravens winning fewer than 10 games.
gopo: Under. Fuck Baltimore - plus, I think our division is better this year than most people are giving us credit for.

Buffalo Bills -- 5 wins
Over -120, Under -110
Andy: Under. The memory of that 6-3 Browns "victory" is still in my mind. Plus, I was recently alerted to just how ugly Marshawn Lynch truly is.
Figgs: Under. They are really bad.
Nick: Under. Buffalo is the worst team in the AFC, and maybe in all of football.
gopo: Under. If they weren't in the AFC east I'd say over, but I can't see them winning a single division game.

Carolina Panthers -- 7.5 wins
Over +120, Under -150
Andy: Under. Too much competition in the NFC South.
Figgs: Over. I'm right on the fence with 7.5, so I'll take the +120 instead of giving the -150.
Nick: Over. I'd feel better about this at 7, but the bottom line is that I'd have trouble giving -150 to take the under.
gopo: Under. Agree with Andy's assessment of the NFC South; I also don't like putting too much stock in a QB who hasn't played a full season.

Chicago Bears -- 8 wins
Over -115, Under -115
Andy: Under. Hell no. I think they could finish dead last this year. As much as I respect Nick's football acumen and appreciate him running my fantasy draft, I feel the same way about him picking Cutler as our QB as Frank Costanza did about Steinbrenner trading Jay Buhner.
Figgs: Under. Not a fan of Cutler.
Nick: Under. I don't have a good feel for these Bears, but everybody seems to think their O-line is lousy.
gopo: Under. But it's the Mike Martz offense! He's unbelievable! Umm... actually, he was just unbelievable once - with the Rams, and maybe that didn't have much to do with him...

Cincinnati Bengals -- 8 wins
Over -135, Under +105
Andy: Over. These guys ran the division last year (6-0) and added some weapons. They play solid D, stay in games, and should be a little more explosive in 2010.
Figgs: Over. This is a playoff caliber team.
Nick: Over. I've done a 180 on the Bengals in the last few weeks. They fell apart late last year, but they have 2-3 key defensive starters getting healthy. They'll make a strong run at a Wild Card.
gopo: Under. Don't think these guys are as good as everyone thinks - Palmer is washed up. I think this will be a push, but since I have to pick one, I'll keep my "not picking any Overs" streak going.

Cleveland Browns -- 5.5 wins
Over -125, Under -105
Andy: OVER. Go Browns. Figgs, I want you to sit down with Calico Jack until you've reconsidered this shameful excuse for a pick.
Figgs: Under. No comment.
Nick: Over. I can't see us winning fewer than 5 games, and I could see us winning as many as 8 or 9 with some breaks.
gopo: Over. Ok, had to pick one over - I think they'll struggle in the division, but will surprise some people. This is assuming Cribbs touches the ball like 700 times a game and Delhomme isn't the disaster he was last season. Wait, those are two BIG ifs... maybe I should change this to under. I might have to revisit this.

Dallas Cowboys -- 10 wins
Over -110, Under -120
Andy: Over. Dallas is a tremendous regular-season team.
Figgs: Over. I'm not thinking Super Bowl like many people are, but 11 or 12 wins is very realistic.
Nick: Under. Everything fell into place for Dallas last year and they have a tough schedule this season.
gopo: Under. Think this will be a push as well, but agree with Nick - a lot of things went right for them last year.

Denver Broncos -- 7.5 wins
Over +105, Under -135
Andy: Under. Denver was lucky to get eight last year. "Denver sucks ass."
Figgs: Under. They could finish last in an awful AFC West.
Nick: Under. Denver feels like a solid 6-7 win team.
gopo: Under. I only pick Unders except for the Browns.

Detroit Lions -- 5 wins
Over -130, Under is even
Andy: Over. Hard to pick this many wins for a club that averaged a 15-point loss every time out last year, but I'm doing it anyway.
Figgs: Over. I think Stafford is gonna have a real good year.
Nick: Over. The Lions are going to score some points. I wouldn't be shocked if they finished ahead of the Bears.
gopo: Over. I think this team will be a lot better - I believe in Best and Suh and as long as Stafford is ok, they should crack 5.

Green Bay Packers -- 10 wins
Over -130, Under is even
Andy: Over. I thought this was going to be 11 or 11.5. Easy choice.
Figgs: Over. Tough call for me here, but I'm on the Aaron Rodgers bandwagon, and they have A.J. Hawk.
Nick: Over. Pack and Saints look neck and neck as early NFC Super Bowl contenders.
gopo: Over. These guys are an offensive powerhouse - only a few teams in the league can score with them and even fewer who can matchup on D to stop them.

Houston Texans -- 8.5 wins
Over -110, Under -120
Andy: Under. Regular FCF pick readers have to know how happy I am about this, as the perennial 8-win Texans are headed for 8-8 once again. I cannot believe they got nine last year, but order will be restored this year.
Figgs: Over. I've picked Houston to finally get over the .500 hump and make the playoffs the past two years and I'm still waiting. This is your last chance, Texans.
Nick: Under. Here's a really close one, but Indy and Tennessee will be tough, at almost even odds my money's on Houston to win 8 games, not 9.
gopo: Over. This is the year Houston makes the division interesting.

Indianapolis Colts -- 11 wins
Over -125, Under -105
Andy: Over. They won 14 last year and their division isn't appreciably better. I can't see a Manning team not winning 11 this season.
Figgs: Over. I'm not betting against Peyton Manning until he gives me a reason to.
Nick: Over. I have trouble seeing the Colts winning fewer than 11 games. You have to pick them to win 12 or 13 games until they stop doing it.
gopo: Over. Agreed - these guys are going to be good again, unfortunately.

Jacksonville Jaguars -- 6.5 wins
Over -115, Under -115
Andy: Under. I would never bet this in real life.
Figgs: Under. They'll be lucky to get one divisional win.
Nick: Under. Tough division, and very little upside. Enjoy Tyson Alualu.
gopo: Under. If Jones-Drew isn't 100% healthy, these guys are screwed. Garrard is a fantastic backup Fantasy QB, though. So they have that going for them... which is nice.

Kansas City Chiefs -- 7 wins
Over -115, Under -115
Andy: Under. SEVEN? Are the Chieves playing some games against college squads that I'm not aware of? Weirdest line on the whole board.
Figgs: Under. They'll be better, but I don't see them as a .500 team yet.
Nick: Under. I have a tough time seeing these guys getting to .500, even in the soft AFC West.
gopo: Under. They can't even get their shit together to start the best running back on their team - doesn't give me a huge amount of confidence picking this club.

Miami Dolphins -- 8.5 wins
Over -135, Under +105
Andy: Over. I like the Fish this year, despite their loser quarterback, who Nick inexplicably added to our fantasy team. Any time you can stock the QB position with a guy who no one likes, looks like he's drunk, and threw 26 interceptions a year ago, you gotta back him up with a guy who went to michigan.
Figgs: Under. Suck it, Chad Henne.
Nick: Under. I could easily see them winning this division, but there aren't many holes in that schedule, so I'll take the extra juice.
gopo: Under. Tough division, I just don't see them pulling out 9 wins.

Minnesota Vikings -- 9.5 wins
Over is even, Under -130
Andy: Under. Too bad they can't play the Bears three times.
Figgs: Over. The Pack probably win this division, but I like the Vikes as a 10-6 wild card team.
Nick: Under. An improved division, serious health concerns, and it's a year after everything went right.
gopo: Under. I don't think Favre has the season he did last year, and I don't even think he makes it all the way through this one.

New England Patriots -- 9.5 wins
Over -145, Under +115
Andy: Over. A healthy Brady will get them to double digits.
Figgs: Over. I never thought I would say this, but I think people are underestimating Brady and Belichick.
Nick: Over. See Colts, Indianapolis.
gopo: Over. Dammit, I hate it when the Patriots are good. They will, of course, be Super Bowl contenders by November.

New Orleans Saints -- 10.5 wins
Over is even, Under -130
Andy: Over. I still like this team.
Figgs: Over. This is still the best team in the NFC.
Nick: Over. The Super Bowl hangover has been pretty bulletproof, but the Saints look tough and their division isn't very good.
gopo: Under. I don't think their defense will be as good, and I have a hard time seeing everything falling their way again. Sign me up as a believer in the Super Bowl hangover.

New York Giants -- 8.5 wins
Over -125, Under -105
Andy: Over. They'll switch places with Philly behind Dallas. I agree with Figgs that nothing jumps out at me here. The NFC East is hard for me to handicap.
Figgs: Under. This is the toughest one on the board for me. Gun to my head, I say they go 8-8.
Nick: Over. I'm starting to feel like these cats bounce back and win the NFC East.
gopo: Under. I'm with Figgs - think they end up at 0.500.

New York Jets -- 9.5 wins
Over -110, Under -120
Andy: Under. OVER-RATED (clap clap clap-clap-clap)
Figgs: Over. I'm not drinking the Jets Super Bowl kool-aid, but don't see why they can't go 10-6.
Nick: Under. I need to see it from Sanchize before I believe. This was a 7-7 team until the Colts and Bengals laid down for them, and if karma is at all real there are some jerks on this team ready for their comeuppance.
gopo: Under. +1 on Andy - think these guys are completely over rated. No way Dirty Sanchez steps up and get's that offense in gear.

Oakland Raiders -- 6.5 wins
Over -115, Under -115
Andy: Over. Why the hell not? I can't pick everyone in the AFC West to lose 12 games, and not having JaMarcus Russell around can only help.
Figgs: Under. Campbell is a huge upgrade at QB, but they're still the Raiders.
Nick: Over. Basically a coin flip. I wish this was either 6 or 7.
gopo: Under. Until proven otherwise, I will continue to assume the Radiers will win no more than 5 games every year.

Philadelphia Eagles -- 8.5 wins
Over +110, Under -140
Andy: Under. The first year of the Kolb era will be inconsistent, and like I said, I see the G-Men supplanting them.
Figgs: Over. I predict 8-8 for them, but not confidently enough to lay the -140.
Nick: Over...but barely. If not for the -140, I'd take the under.
gopo: Under. I don't think they come together very well this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers -- 8.5 wins
Over -140, Under +110
Andy: Under. The Cleveland Browns defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 13-6 the last time the two teams met.
Figgs: Under. Suck it, Pittsburgh.
Nick: Under. Another close one, but the Steelers' line hasn't improved enough, and Troy Polamalu can still get hurt.
gopo: Over. I think we come out of the Rapistberger suspension 2-2 with plenty of opportunities to hit 9 games.

San Diego Chargers -- 10.5 wins
Over is even, Under -130
Andy: Over. Why on earth isn't this higher? They won 13 a year ago and play in football's worst division.
Figgs: Over. Not enough competition within the West.
Nick: Over. I'd love to take the under, but with such a soft schedule and some Ewing Theory action, I'll take the even odds.
gopo: Over. Their division sucks too much for me to see anyone else winning games.

San Francisco 49ers -- 8.5 wins
Over -125, Under -105
Andy: Under. Singletary will wear these guys out.
Figgs: Under. I'm not sold on these guys and still like the Cards to take the West.
Nick: Over. Starting to look like the default division winner.
gopo: Under. I think they are a year away from being counted on for 9 wins.

Seattle Seahawks -- 7.5 wins
Over +110, Under -140
Andy: Over. This is my sleeper team, based on no analysis whatsoever.
Figgs: Under. Not sure why this is so high, I would take the under at 5.5.
Nick: Under. How is their total so high? Seattle and Buffalo are probably the two most talentless teams in the league.
gopo: Under. They do have the best bald QB in the league, so it's tough to pick against that. But he also has horrible lower back issues, and that might be the only thing that scares me more than turf toe.

St. Louis Rams -- 5 wins
Over +105, Under -135
Andy: Under. They've won six the past three years combined.
Figgs: Under. I wanted to take the odds, but just can't picture them winning six games.
Nick: Over. I have trouble seeing them win 6, but they could easily steal a few games in a lousy division, so I'll take the better odds.
gopo: Under. Unless Bradford is amazing this year, they don't have a chance at 5.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 6 wins
Over is even, Under -130
Andy: Under. No.
Figgs: Under. Possibly the worst team in the league.
Nick: Under. Not a good football team, and certainly not a 7-win team.
gopo: Under. These guys suck, and so does their head coach. Not a good combination.

Tennessee Titans -- 8.5 wins
Over +105, Under -135
Andy: Over. The Titties never stay down for long, and they somehow won eight last year. Vince Young wins football games.
Figgs: Under. I don't see them and Houston hitting 9+ wins, and I already took the over on the Texans.
Nick: Over. Another close call, but they somehow managed to win 8 last year, and I love me some Jeff Fisher.
gopo: Over. I don't think they'll be that good, but 9 wins seems reasonable with that running game.

Washington Redskins -- 8 wins
Over -105, Under -125
Andy: Under. Ha! Albert Haynesworth is a fat, selfish jerk. These guys might win three.
Figgs: Under. 8-8 is the best I could see them doing.
Nick: Under. Donovan's banged up already? Goodnight, sweet prince.
gopo: Under. Their offense will be better with McNabb, but their D is going to suck.

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