NFL Picks: Super Bowl

The epic Saints-Vikes NFC Championship game was probably the best example of how strongly the turnover battle has dominated the NFL Postseason this year. Minnesota semi-literally fumbled that game away, outplaying New Orleans but turning the ball over five times to just one for the Saints. There's no reason the Vikings should have lost that game. The Colts became the first team this postseason to win a game without a positive turnover margin, as both they and the Jets committed one turnover apiece. Good thing the Colts had a positive quarterback margin, as Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis offense were totally unstoppable from the end of the second quarter on. For the record, the 10 playoff game winners thus far are +21 in turnovers.

Last week
Andy: 1-1
Figgs: 1-1
Nick: 1-1
Bucko: 1-1
Gopo: 1-1
Nick's Money Picks ($): 1-1

Playoffs so far
Andy: 2-8
Figgs: 3-7
Nick: 6-4
Bucko: 4-6
Gopo: 3-7
Nick's Money Picks ($): 6-3


Super Bowl XLIV

Sunday 6 pm
COLTS (-6) vs Saints
Andy: I've improved my winning percentage every week so far in the playoffs; (1) .000, (2) .250, and (3) .500. Look for me to nail the Super Bowl and continue the trend. And Bucko, I will discuss turnovers as much as I like.

I've seen this line move up steadily from -4 to -6, and I'm not surprised in the least. The Colts are hot, and no one wants to go against Peyton Manning without getting a TD. That's the conventional wisdom, right? Don't go against Peyton? But is it justified? I mean, the bookmakers must adjust those lines to account for the Colts' offensive prowess, don't they? Well, not very well, they don't, at least in 2010. Including playoffs, Indy is now 12-5-1 against the spread this season. And it's not because of the dome - they're 7-1 ATS on the road and 6-0 on grass. Miami isn't exactly the road, since New Orleans doesn't call Dolphin Stadium home, but it's away from Lucas Oil, and it is on grass. Using this historical trend for the year, the Colts look like a good bet.

Naturally, I'm taking the Saints. Why? Because I like the Saints, that's why. I've been supporting them all year, as you've read during my weekly picks. I want them to win because I love seeing teams win their first championships as long as that team is not located in Maryland and named after a 19th-century short story. I'm sure Nick's head has exploded already, he's repeated his mantra "bet with your head, not with your heart" like 20 times to calm himself down, and may have expressed a dismal view of my intelligence.

But is Nick's mantra good advice? Not really. Let's face it: no matter how much you think these games can be analyzed and bet correctly, there are no locks. They're all toss-ups, even the ones you feel strongly about. That's why bookmaking is profitable. No matter how strong of a feeling you have on a game, it's still pretty much always basically a 50/50 proposition. That's why they have the point spread. As vehemently as Nick eschews backing a team for personal reasons, he's sitting at 50.9% over the past two seasons. That's not far off from flipping coins. I'm not criticizing Nick's record - picking NFL games is hard - but I am questioning the absolutist idea that you should never pick a team just because you like them. I'm not much better, and I know that I don't do better in games I feel more strongly about than ones I don't. The point is: picking a team for personal reasons isn't really much different percentage-wise in the long run than making your best logical analysis. Plus, it's a lot more fun, and that has to count for something.

Saints. Because I want for them to win.

Figgs: Because it's the Super Bowl, are we required to make our comments multiple paragrahs? This piss match going on between Andy and Nick is amusing to me. Andy, quit living in the past, it bothers you that Nick is beating you. As a last place finisher for the second consecutive year, I have the right to comment on these things. Oh, there's a game tomorrow? I feel like I should be looking forward to this matchup a lot more than I really am. It's a really good game with two really talented offenses, and I like both teams. But I think its because I like both of them that I'm not as interested as I would like to be. When teams like Pittsburgh and Dallas are in it, I can root really hard against them. Here, I don't really know who to cheer for. I'll take the Saints, expecting another close Super Bowl.

Nick: Say what you want Francis, but I don't consider my 6-3 playoff record an accident. Perhaps you want to reduce all gambling to roulette due to your Las Vegas bloodbath, but sports gambling requires in-depth analysis that leads you to an informed decision. That decision isn't right all of the time, but your system should lead you to the right decision more often than not, or you should find a new system.

The fact is that the Colts were consistently the best team in the league, and they won every time they put their starters on the field for 60 minutes. I'm willing to bet that we see Dwight Freeney out there - he won't be as effective as normal, but he'll still be an asset. Plus, defenses aren't made by one player. The Colts' overall defensive speed can absorb the loss of Freeney.

The Saints haven't been right (at least from a bettor's perspective) since they stomped the Pats on MNF. They're 1-6 (!) ATS in their last 7. In stark contrast, the Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. Did I mention that their pair of losses were against New York and Buffalo in games when their starters' minutes were limited?

I'm far from some gambling genius, but I had a good feel for the league and the trends as teams headed into the playoffs this year, and that's paid off big time. That 6-3 record is pretty reflective - I probably shouldn't have won that last Colts game, but I easily could have won that Green Bay game in round one.

This season, picking against Peyton Manning burned me alot, and I'm done doing it. The Colts aren't an all-time great team, but they're the best team in a year that lacked any true power teams. Both teams will move the ball, but Peyton Manning's efficiency in the red zone makes him a great horse to back in any close game (line-wise). The Colts win this thing, and if they get an early lead, I wouldn't be surprised if it turns into a lousy game. ($)


Bucko: Does anyone think Francis will ever stop talking about turnovers? I can't believe I went against Peyton last week. I won't make the same mistake again. I'm taking the Colts in this one.
Gopo: saints - i've been going back and forth on this pick, but looking at the line andy posted above sealed the deal for me. plus, to andy's point, i'd rather root for the saints than the colts. let new orleans and brees get their due. i am really looking forward to this game though - what a great matchup. i don't think we could have picked a better two teams to play in the final game. aside from a couple weeks of hicups on both sides, i think these were the two best teams all year. the saints have the more explosive offense while the colts have the more consistent offense. i'm not even going to bother talking about the defenses in this one - its not really going to matter. holding a team to a field goal is basically a stop. i think this one will start out a little slow and become a high octane affair in the second half. saints will come to play in this one.