tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2365802854240344401.post1895627140321369021..comments2024-03-16T03:36:19.829-04:00Comments on Forest City Fanatics: NFL Picks: Super BowlUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2365802854240344401.post-24534764853163986502010-02-06T16:32:28.076-05:002010-02-06T16:32:28.076-05:00It can be convenient to think so when you're l...<i>It can be convenient to think so when you're losing.</i><br />I didn't want to have to play this card, but here it goes: I won our competition both years we've held it.Andyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13047104184007592041noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2365802854240344401.post-28456067024587225282010-02-06T00:52:41.426-05:002010-02-06T00:52:41.426-05:00I'll reiterate my point: it's still pretty...<i>I'll reiterate my point: it's still pretty much a toss-up.</i><br /><br />It can be convenient to think so when you're losing.Nickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07547155466256645567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2365802854240344401.post-44601801024063940202010-02-05T10:10:17.805-05:002010-02-05T10:10:17.805-05:00Say what you want Francis, but I don't conside...<i>Say what you want Francis, but I don't consider my 6-3 playoff record an accident.</i><br />Do you consider your 4-5 mark in betting the 2008 playoffs also not an accident?<br /><br /><i>Perhaps you want to reduce all gambling to roulette due to your Las Vegas bloodbath,</i><br />Perhaps you'd like to argue facts instead of making ad hominem arguments? I'm arguing long-term trends, not one weekend. And betting sports is a lot like roulette - it's very unpredictable.<br /><br /><i>but sports gambling requires in-depth analysis that leads you to an informed decision.</i><br />Which turns out to be wrong roughly half the time.<br /><br /><i>That decision isn't right all of the time, but your system should lead you to the right decision more often than not, or you should find a new system.</i><br />So you're saying you should try to get more games right than wrong? This is all logical and true, but my point is, regardless of system, most of us don't beat 50% by a whole lot and you're not giving up much, if anything, statistically by picking a team just for fun.<br /><br /><i>The fact is that the Colts were consistently the best team in the league, and they won every time they put their starters on the field for 60 minutes.</i><br />No dispute here: that's why they're giving 6 points in the Super Bowl to a 15-3 opponent.<br /><br /><i>The Saints haven't been right (at least from a bettor's perspective) since they stomped the Pats on MNF. They're 1-6 (!) ATS in their last 7.</i><br />I won $55 on that one. Boo-ya!<br /><br /><i>In stark contrast, the Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. Did I mention that their pair of losses were against New York and Buffalo in games when their starters' minutes were limited?</i><br />Yes, I already pointed out how well they've done ATS and how these things are reflected in the point spread.<br /><br /><i>I'm far from some gambling genius, but I had a good feel for the league and the trends as teams headed into the playoffs this year, and that's paid off big time. That 6-3 record is pretty reflective - I probably shouldn't have won that last Colts game, but I easily could have won that Green Bay game in round one.</i><br />Congratulations on your success. Did you not have the same feel last year? I'm glad you're doing well, but a lot of it is luck.<br /><br /><i>This season, picking against Peyton Manning burned me alot, and I'm done doing it. The Colts aren't an all-time great team, but they're the best team in a year that lacked any true power teams. Both teams will move the ball, but Peyton Manning's efficiency in the red zone makes him a great horse to back in any close game (line-wise). The Colts win this thing, and if they get an early lead, I wouldn't be surprised if it turns into a lousy game. ($)</i><br />First off, how is two teams starting 13-0 a lack of true power teams? I've heard you say several times that there aren't any elite teams this year, and I don't agree.<br /><br />Your pick here uses good logic and a well-supported argument. I'll reiterate my point: it's still pretty much a toss-up.Andyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13047104184007592041noreply@blogger.com