Friday, January 22

NFL Picks: Conference Championships

Seriously, somebody shoot me. This week, I added some injury to the insult I post here on FCF by losing $55 betting among the games in Vegas. Thank goodness the Saints came through for me.

An update on my turnover theory, looking at last week's winners:

Jets (+1)
Colts (+3)
Vikings (+3)
Saints (+2)

For those of you scoring at home, the winners of the eight playoff games thus far are a combined +18 on turnovers, better than two per game. My theory has very good grounding - I just haven't correctly picked the identity of the club who would protect the ball better. In retrospect, I guess I should have anticipated Darrelle Revis catching that ridiculous pick off of the Charger WR's leg, Ed Reed making two interceptions in the span of six plays without the Ravens actually gaining possession, and Tony Romo eating a bucket of KFC pre-game. You'll be happy to learn that my remarkable luck in the desert extended to blackjack and roulette as well.

While I'm rehashing last week, I'd like to point out that, in a fair world, my check for $50 from Wade Phillips would be arriving in my Cleveland mailbox any day now. I know they got routed, but everything goes back to Phillips' decision to kick a field goal from the Minnesota 31 on 4th and 1. Why not just tell your team: I don't think you're good enough. I don't think you can win. Aside from the fact that it was strategically stupid (the 'Boys had been rushing very well and their kicker was a midseason add), it was an early sign to the Vikings that the Cowboys were afraid, and they played the whole rest of the game like it. Right before kickoff, I saw a shot of Wade Phillips' face, and immediately lamented having wagered on him. Never again. Update: the Cowboys renewed his contract? Did they not see that game? Wow.


Last week
Andy: 1-3
Figgs: 1-3
Nick: 3-1
Bucko: 2-2
Gopo: 1-3
Nick's Money Picks ($): 3-1

Playoffs so far
Andy: 1-7 (!)
Figgs: 2-6
Nick: 5-3
Bucko: 3-5
Gopo: 2-6
Nick's Money Picks ($): 5-2


AFC Championship

Sunday 3 pm
COLTS (-7) vs Jets
Andy: Or as it's more popularly known, The Battle of Teams That Cost Me $30 Each Last Weekend. At least Indy had the decency to knock out an archnemesis for me. I now see the ability of this Jet team (10th in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings), but I dislike them personally, especially the villainous Braylon Edwards. What a jerk. And when you're 1-7 picking the playoffs through two rounds, you can freely pick the teams you want to win, regardless of whether you think they will. Colts. (And I think they will win the turnover battle and the game.)
Figgs: The Jets really surprised me last week, and should have convinced me that they are a quality team, but for some reason I'm still just not sold. Colts.
Nick: This line opened at 7.5 pretty much everywhere except The Mirage, and that half point is troublesome. But only giving 7, I like the Colts here. Everything has gone the Jets' way so far, from matchups, to turnovers, to Sanchez playing like a mediocre quarterback. I've waffled on the Jets' games the last two weeks and elected to go with them both times, but I'm hoping to time my departure from the bandwagon perfectly. Colts, possibly in a blowout. ($ -9)
Bucko: I'd really like to see the Colts in the Super Bowl again, but I actually think the Jets will at least keep it within 7. Peyton is the man, but they have no running game. I believe the Jets will once again run the ball well, and Revis will control Wayne. I'll be cheering for the Colts, but I think the Jets will take it.
Gopo: colts. i am 100% convinced that the jets are not a quality football team - they've gotten really lucky with some solid matchups against teams that go at their strength. they can't pass the ball at all, and they play defense by blitzing the hell out of the qb. that's not going to work against manning.


Sunday 6:40 pm
SAINTS (-4) vs Vikings
Andy: The Saints have been the most exciting team in the NFL this season - a delight to watch, a great home atmosphere, won me $54 last weekend, and featuring my favorite player in the league in Drew Brees. How can you not root for them in this game? I told Nick after they crushed Arizona that I was taking them in the NFC title game regardless of the line, and I'm sticking with that. Nick called me stupid, by the way, but I went to Carnegie Mellon, so that certainly can't be the case! Saints, all the way. And guess what, Nick? I'm taking them in the Super Bowl too.
Figgs: I really wish the Saints and Colts wouldn't have tanked it at the end of the season, cause a battle of the undefeateds would be so great. I still think the game will happen, just not with the perfect records. Nawlins.
Nick: I like the Saints here, too. The Vikings were 8-0 at home this season, and just 4-4 on the road. That should be enough to take the Saints in and of itself, but the Saints also throw effectively against big blitzes, and their secondary should be good enough to slow down the Vikes' passing attack. Also, it's going to be alot tougher for Favre to make calls at the line this week. Old dome=huge advantage. Saints. ($ -3.5)
Bucko: Guess what? I'm going with Brett Favre, Brett Favre, and Brett Favre.
Gopo: saints for sure. i've been waiting all season for favre to pull off one of his 3 int games, and i think this is it. i hope his arm falls off during one of the throws.

1 comment:

LDUTheCoach said...

The majority of people are taking the Colts to kill the Jets this
week but you have to consider how well New York matches up against
Indy. Indy has the worst running game in the league, and is ALL
Peyton. The Jets have the #1 pass-defence and if they can put the
clamps on Peyton early… it could very well be a Jets win. TheCoach
isn’t calling a J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS win but they will cover the
spread. I know Indy shut down Baltimore’s running game last week
but the Jets strive on being quick and elusive.. something Ray Rice
isn’t…

Minnesota and New Orleans is going to be such a good game. I was
hoping all season long these two would meet up in the NFC
Championship and honestly.. either team could team this game. The
Saints are -3.0 favourites and historically home team get given three
points for the home-field advantage… so basically this game is a
pick-em and there is ONE thing that I like about the Saints and its
that home-field advantage. Last week Warner and Romo combined for 7
sacks and 4 fumbles largely in part to not being able to communicate
with their offence. The SuperDome is NUTS and I don’t care how much
experience Favre has, the crowd can help a team and also hurt the
other so much.

Feel free to check out my picks with scores (and of course
cheerleader pictures) @
http://www.lionsdenu.com/category/sports/nfl-guide-2009-2010/

Best of luck to all this week,
Regards,
TheCoach