An FCF look at the 2009 Cleveland Indians

Welcome to Forest City Fanatics' roundtable discussion of the upcoming 2009 Indians season! JHH, Andy, Nick, and Figgs will be taking a look at some of the questions that will define the campaign, as the Tribe seeks to reclaim the top spot in the AL Central and possibly end their 60-year championship drought. Early problems with the bullpen and some cold bats dug the 2008 Tribe too big of a hole to climb out of, though they were one of MLB's finest clubs post-All Star break and finished at 81-81, giving us reason to be hopeful in '09. The offseason additions of Mark DeRosa and Kerry Wood have the Tribe poised to earn a title in a competitive division with no clear front-runner.

Let's now take a look at some of the topics that will define the season, several of which I copied and pasted directly from last year's. JHH suggested that we run some of these by an accredited writer like Paul Hoynes before publishing here, but inasmuch as Hoynes predicted that Torii Hunter would win the MVP last year, I question his credibility. Anthony Castrovince already provides enough information and comedy in his mailbags without us cluttering it. We could have sent questions to Sheldon Ocker, but I didn't see the need for a bunch of unnecessarily mean-spirited, completely unfunny non-answers. So, it's just us. Enjoy!


Which Travis Hafner will we get: the 2008 turkey, the 2007 decent hitter, the 2005-06 monster, or something in between?

JHH: Did we ask this question last year? Either way I suspect this could be the last year we do ask it. Spring training, while meaningless, has revealed a rusty Hafner who hasn't been able to reach the outfield consistently against no BP pitching. I've always been upbeat about Hafner but at this point I have to say if we see a glimmer of the old Hafner he'll have to stay healthy the entire season and work out the bad habits he picked up before. I'm going with 2007-like hitter who finished with just under 100 RBI. Well that's what I would have said had this article been published say two weeks ago. Too much information has come out about how poor Hafner looks not only in games but even batting practice. Hafner is officially an albatross on this team and look for a rotation of guys to take over the DH spot.

Andy: He's toast. I don't expect him to be a starter after the early stages of the year. I hope this goes the way of my Cliff Lee prediction from last year, but this guy has washed-up written all over him. I like Hafner, I just don't think he can contribute anymore.

Nick: I should put up one of Fox Mulder's "I WANT TO BELIEVE" signs with a picture of Pronk. I just don't know about this cat. I want to believe he was really injured last year, and I want to believe he can come back. I recently had a conversation with my dad, and we agreed that the Indians have the bats to replace Hafner; it's the guaranteed money that's the problem. We'll have to wait and see, but if we can get an OBP in the range of .360 and 20-plus homers, I think we can live with it.

Figgs: I unfortunately have to agree. He's done. It's a shame, but I just don't see him being productive.


What minor league position player and pitcher do you expect to make surprising contributions this year?

JHH: Brantley is my pick. His speed and ability to get on base is what this team needs at the top of the order.

Andy: Dave Huff. We're going to need bonus starters, like all teams do, and I think he might be able to come up and give us some quality innings.

Nick: I'll give you a pitcher and a position player; Tony Sipp and Michael Brantley. Sipp's in the bullpen by August, and there's a good chance that Brantley's starting in left by the end of the season.

Figgs: Is it too cliche to say LaPorta? Or does he not even count as a minor leaguer? I definitely haven't paid enough attention to spring training this year.


Best lineup, 1-9, let's have it

JHH: Brantley, DeRosa, Sizemore, Peralta, Martinez, Shoppach, Francisco, Choo, Cabrera

Andy: Sizemore, DeRosa, Martinez, Peralta, Shoppach, Garko, Choo, LaPorta, Cabrera.

Nick: Choo, DeRosa, Sizemore, Martinez, Shoppach, Peralta, Garko, Francisco, Carroll.
This is my diminishing OBP lineup theory, with some minor adjustments. Everyone is in order according to their OBP from last season except Victor (I used his career numbers due to the injury), with some minor adjustments for OPS (1 point of OBP is worth roughly 4 points of slugging). Carroll is in the lineup ahead of Cabrera because, well, he was a better hitter last season (.355 OBP!).

Figgs: Sizemore, DeRosa, Martinez, Peralta, Shoppach, Choo, Garko, Francisco, Cabrera.


Cliff Lee: WTF?

JHH: Boy did I get lucky last year with my preseason faith in Lee. Cliff's return to earth is expected. My main realistic concern is his health. If he's healthy the whole year I expect 16 or 17 wins. My inner pessimistic Indians fan thinks much worse. Lee's ability to change speeds with his fastball and curve are too good for him not to have some level of success in 2009.

Andy: The fundamentals of Cliff Lee's pitching are strong! Hacky, badly-timed political joke aside, nothing Lee did last year was fluky in terms of how he accomplished it: JHH's aforementioned speed variation, plus pinpoint control. Last year was historic, but he'll remain among the league's elite this year. I refuse to cite a predicted win metric.

Nick: Good, not great. 16-9, ERA under 4.00. We'll be happy that we didn't overpay him for the long term.

Figgs: I'm not quite as optimistic, but I do expect positive things. I don't see him performing at the level he did last year, but I could see a solid contribution of 12-15 wins.


What would it take for skipper Eric Wedge's job to be in jeopardy?

JHH: Two seasons of this team tanking and basically giving up by August. You still may not like Wedge's use of the bullpen or refusal to play certain players but what the Indians did in the second half of last year was impressive. Not giving up and going out there to win because that is their job has is a credit to the team this front office put together and Wedge's day to day ability to get the most out of these guys.

Andy: You mean tanking and giving up by August in both 2009 and 2010? I'm guessing you didn't mean to imply they did so last year. Anyway, as soon as the Tribe has a bad year that cannot be attributed to something well outside the manager's control (I'm looking at you, bullpen), Wedge may want to get the resume ready.

Nick: Eh, basically nothing. Shapiro is married to Wedge, and I have no problem with that. If the Tribe sucks it up for the next two years, someone's head will have to roll, and that would likely be Wedge's.

Figgs: These days in sports, no one is safe. If the Tribe are out of things by the All-Star break like last year, Wedge is in serious jeopardy.


Seriously, how long is Pavano in this rotation?

JHH: Will he be mediocre or will he get hurt? The longshot bet is that he is neither, but come on. I say he's not pitching in the Indians rotation by late June.

Andy: Who? I'm just kidding. He'll miss some games, but will be a part of the rotation (maybe not the postseason rotation) for the duration of the season.

Nick: He'll miss four starts, and receive oddly high run support a la Paul Byrd circa 2006. 14-8, 4.97 ERA, and one final payday next off season.

Figgs: I guess if no one is expecting anything from him, he can only be a pleasant surprise, right? I could see him being a decent end of the rotation guy throughout the year, missing starts here and there due to injuries, but hopefully no significant periods of time.


Best off-season move?

JHH: Is this basically a DeRosa versus Wood question? Oh there was Joe Smith too. All good moves really. Wood no question. When was the last time you weren't worried the Indians closer would blow it? Mesa? Well be prepared to head for Scorcher's for a celebration once Wood takes the mound.

Andy: No, JHH, I think you're confused - Joe Smith was a guy the Cavs got. I know the teams play next door to one another, but come on. But back to the question: I don't even know what it's going to be like having a closer who can throw the ball fast. Can someone bring a video of Mike Jackson to Opening Day? Even Doug Jones will do. If Wood stays healthy and pitches like last year, he's the key to the AL Central.

Nick: Wood. Over/under for erection ("I've got Wood," etc.) jokes that Milkey and I make per game: 127.5.

Figgs: I don't have anything to add that these guys haven't said already. If Wood stays healthy, he's a big time addition.


With the Tribe still in contention in late summer, what position do you see them most likely trading for?

JHH: Barring a injury, I have to say starting pitching. Pavano's a big question mark to make it through the entire season, the battle for the fifth starter is looking shaky, and Reyes has that bad elbow history. I hate the idea of trading for pitching because we aren't the type of team to trade LaPorta and Brantley for a few months of C.C. but we'll just have to wait and see.

Andy: My favorite trick question - I'm going with: nothing. They have AAAA starting depth and won't be able to get better late in the year on the market for anything close to a reasonable price. On the other hand, I'm looking forward to our annual raid of Seattle's minor-league system.

Nick: None. Like Andy said, that's what our farm team's for. Maybe we can promote Valbuena, move Cabrera to short, Peralta to third, and trade DeRosa to the Dodgers for a catcher destined for major league stardom who shares a name with a famous guitar player?

Figgs: It's Cleveland, do we ever do anything?


What will be the order of finish in the AL Central?

JHH: Indians, Twins, Tigers, Royals, White Socks

Andy: Tribe, Twinkies, White Socks, Tigers, Royals

Nick: (W)indians, Twins, Pale Hosers, Royals, Tigers (their attendance will be tragically bad)

Figgs: Indians, Twins, Tigers, White Sox, Royals


How many games will this team win, will they qualify for the postseason, and how successful do you expect said postseason run to go?

JHH: This team wins 89 games and represents the AL Central in the postseason. They get eliminated first round. Tough question. There is no way I'm confident in anything I just typed.
Andy: Let's take the easy question first: they're going to win the World Series. As even as the AL Central is, they could very well take the division with 88 wins.
Nick: They'll win 90 games, win the division, and lose in the divisional round to the Red Sox. There I've hedged my bets; if we lose, then I'm right, and if we win, then we win.
Figgs: Once the Cavs take home the NBA title in a couple months, the Cleveland Curse will be lifted, so I see no reason why the Tribe won't win the World Series. Here's to the Brownies making it three-for-three! (Sorry, got a little carried away)
(P.S. I bought Frogger on my phone to practice for Tribe Weekend)


GO TRIBE!!!