Tuesday, May 13

Outs are fun!

Couple of quick thoughts on the Tribe:

1) Yes, we're not always putting a whole lot of runs across (it's more a question of inconsistency than total runs, though overall scoring is down a bit), but I tire of the TV announcing crew constantly advocating giving away outs. Our batters are making more outs, so the solution is...make more outs! On purpose some times! I'm being reductionist, but "moving runners" isn't, in the long-run, going to win games.

I think what really bugs me is how they always put things like bunting and stealing under the super-overused heading of "aggressive," which in modern sports announcing is used as a synonym for "good." You know what seems like an "aggressive" strategy to me? Using all three of your outs to bat.

2) As I write, the Tribe is .500 and has a +23 run differential. They are just 1 game out of first place. Baseball Prospectus gives a 24% chance of winning the division (26.7% to win the wild card) using performance so far. The odds go up to 54.8% for the division and 61% for the playoffs using PECOTA player projections. We're doing alright! Fans are still pretty nervous about the club's prospects, and I think it's because of the close games the Tribe plays and their pitching-first mentality. If they had the same run differential but had scored and yielded 50 more runs, people would be less concerned. I think it's easier to appreciate a team that wins 10-8 slugfests over one that wins 3-1 pitcher's duels.

We'll be just fine.

3) Cliff Lee's season so far is absurd. There's really nothing I can add.


JHH said...

It's so much easier going into a game knowing your team can score at will.

Sitting here almost eight innings into a 1-0 game, while exciting, is killing me. I know if the bullpen blows the lead our prospects aren't good. Well at least my gut says they're not good.

Just imagine the situation where the Tribe was hitting and the pitching was like this.

Andy said...

Just imagine the situation where the Tribe was hitting and the pitching was like this.

You mean, September 2007?

Nick said...

Somehow I doubt that Rick Manning and Matt Underwear have run a regression analysis to determine the statistical significance of stolen bases and sacrifice bunts. In fact, I'd bet my soul on it. (Any takers?)

Why should we bunt and steal?

Because that's the way I was taught, and that's the way I did it when I played!