NFL Picks: Super Bowl

The epic Saints-Vikes NFC Championship game was probably the best example of how strongly the turnover battle has dominated the NFL Postseason this year. Minnesota semi-literally fumbled that game away, outplaying New Orleans but turning the ball over five times to just one for the Saints. There's no reason the Vikings should have lost that game. The Colts became the first team this postseason to win a game without a positive turnover margin, as both they and the Jets committed one turnover apiece. Good thing the Colts had a positive quarterback margin, as Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis offense were totally unstoppable from the end of the second quarter on. For the record, the 10 playoff game winners thus far are +21 in turnovers.

Last week
Andy: 1-1
Figgs: 1-1
Nick: 1-1
Bucko: 1-1
Gopo: 1-1
Nick's Money Picks ($): 1-1

Playoffs so far
Andy: 2-8
Figgs: 3-7
Nick: 6-4
Bucko: 4-6
Gopo: 3-7
Nick's Money Picks ($): 6-3


Super Bowl XLIV

Sunday 6 pm
COLTS (-6) vs Saints
Andy: I've improved my winning percentage every week so far in the playoffs; (1) .000, (2) .250, and (3) .500. Look for me to nail the Super Bowl and continue the trend. And Bucko, I will discuss turnovers as much as I like.

I've seen this line move up steadily from -4 to -6, and I'm not surprised in the least. The Colts are hot, and no one wants to go against Peyton Manning without getting a TD. That's the conventional wisdom, right? Don't go against Peyton? But is it justified? I mean, the bookmakers must adjust those lines to account for the Colts' offensive prowess, don't they? Well, not very well, they don't, at least in 2010. Including playoffs, Indy is now 12-5-1 against the spread this season. And it's not because of the dome - they're 7-1 ATS on the road and 6-0 on grass. Miami isn't exactly the road, since New Orleans doesn't call Dolphin Stadium home, but it's away from Lucas Oil, and it is on grass. Using this historical trend for the year, the Colts look like a good bet.

Naturally, I'm taking the Saints. Why? Because I like the Saints, that's why. I've been supporting them all year, as you've read during my weekly picks. I want them to win because I love seeing teams win their first championships as long as that team is not located in Maryland and named after a 19th-century short story. I'm sure Nick's head has exploded already, he's repeated his mantra "bet with your head, not with your heart" like 20 times to calm himself down, and may have expressed a dismal view of my intelligence.

But is Nick's mantra good advice? Not really. Let's face it: no matter how much you think these games can be analyzed and bet correctly, there are no locks. They're all toss-ups, even the ones you feel strongly about. That's why bookmaking is profitable. No matter how strong of a feeling you have on a game, it's still pretty much always basically a 50/50 proposition. That's why they have the point spread. As vehemently as Nick eschews backing a team for personal reasons, he's sitting at 50.9% over the past two seasons. That's not far off from flipping coins. I'm not criticizing Nick's record - picking NFL games is hard - but I am questioning the absolutist idea that you should never pick a team just because you like them. I'm not much better, and I know that I don't do better in games I feel more strongly about than ones I don't. The point is: picking a team for personal reasons isn't really much different percentage-wise in the long run than making your best logical analysis. Plus, it's a lot more fun, and that has to count for something.

Saints. Because I want for them to win.

Figgs: Because it's the Super Bowl, are we required to make our comments multiple paragrahs? This piss match going on between Andy and Nick is amusing to me. Andy, quit living in the past, it bothers you that Nick is beating you. As a last place finisher for the second consecutive year, I have the right to comment on these things. Oh, there's a game tomorrow? I feel like I should be looking forward to this matchup a lot more than I really am. It's a really good game with two really talented offenses, and I like both teams. But I think its because I like both of them that I'm not as interested as I would like to be. When teams like Pittsburgh and Dallas are in it, I can root really hard against them. Here, I don't really know who to cheer for. I'll take the Saints, expecting another close Super Bowl.

Nick: Say what you want Francis, but I don't consider my 6-3 playoff record an accident. Perhaps you want to reduce all gambling to roulette due to your Las Vegas bloodbath, but sports gambling requires in-depth analysis that leads you to an informed decision. That decision isn't right all of the time, but your system should lead you to the right decision more often than not, or you should find a new system.

The fact is that the Colts were consistently the best team in the league, and they won every time they put their starters on the field for 60 minutes. I'm willing to bet that we see Dwight Freeney out there - he won't be as effective as normal, but he'll still be an asset. Plus, defenses aren't made by one player. The Colts' overall defensive speed can absorb the loss of Freeney.

The Saints haven't been right (at least from a bettor's perspective) since they stomped the Pats on MNF. They're 1-6 (!) ATS in their last 7. In stark contrast, the Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. Did I mention that their pair of losses were against New York and Buffalo in games when their starters' minutes were limited?

I'm far from some gambling genius, but I had a good feel for the league and the trends as teams headed into the playoffs this year, and that's paid off big time. That 6-3 record is pretty reflective - I probably shouldn't have won that last Colts game, but I easily could have won that Green Bay game in round one.

This season, picking against Peyton Manning burned me alot, and I'm done doing it. The Colts aren't an all-time great team, but they're the best team in a year that lacked any true power teams. Both teams will move the ball, but Peyton Manning's efficiency in the red zone makes him a great horse to back in any close game (line-wise). The Colts win this thing, and if they get an early lead, I wouldn't be surprised if it turns into a lousy game. ($)


Bucko: Does anyone think Francis will ever stop talking about turnovers? I can't believe I went against Peyton last week. I won't make the same mistake again. I'm taking the Colts in this one.
Gopo: saints - i've been going back and forth on this pick, but looking at the line andy posted above sealed the deal for me. plus, to andy's point, i'd rather root for the saints than the colts. let new orleans and brees get their due. i am really looking forward to this game though - what a great matchup. i don't think we could have picked a better two teams to play in the final game. aside from a couple weeks of hicups on both sides, i think these were the two best teams all year. the saints have the more explosive offense while the colts have the more consistent offense. i'm not even going to bother talking about the defenses in this one - its not really going to matter. holding a team to a field goal is basically a stop. i think this one will start out a little slow and become a high octane affair in the second half. saints will come to play in this one.

NFL Picks: Conference Championships

Seriously, somebody shoot me. This week, I added some injury to the insult I post here on FCF by losing $55 betting among the games in Vegas. Thank goodness the Saints came through for me.

An update on my turnover theory, looking at last week's winners:

Jets (+1)
Colts (+3)
Vikings (+3)
Saints (+2)

For those of you scoring at home, the winners of the eight playoff games thus far are a combined +18 on turnovers, better than two per game. My theory has very good grounding - I just haven't correctly picked the identity of the club who would protect the ball better. In retrospect, I guess I should have anticipated Darrelle Revis catching that ridiculous pick off of the Charger WR's leg, Ed Reed making two interceptions in the span of six plays without the Ravens actually gaining possession, and Tony Romo eating a bucket of KFC pre-game. You'll be happy to learn that my remarkable luck in the desert extended to blackjack and roulette as well.

While I'm rehashing last week, I'd like to point out that, in a fair world, my check for $50 from Wade Phillips would be arriving in my Cleveland mailbox any day now. I know they got routed, but everything goes back to Phillips' decision to kick a field goal from the Minnesota 31 on 4th and 1. Why not just tell your team: I don't think you're good enough. I don't think you can win. Aside from the fact that it was strategically stupid (the 'Boys had been rushing very well and their kicker was a midseason add), it was an early sign to the Vikings that the Cowboys were afraid, and they played the whole rest of the game like it. Right before kickoff, I saw a shot of Wade Phillips' face, and immediately lamented having wagered on him. Never again. Update: the Cowboys renewed his contract? Did they not see that game? Wow.


Last week
Andy: 1-3
Figgs: 1-3
Nick: 3-1
Bucko: 2-2
Gopo: 1-3
Nick's Money Picks ($): 3-1

Playoffs so far
Andy: 1-7 (!)
Figgs: 2-6
Nick: 5-3
Bucko: 3-5
Gopo: 2-6
Nick's Money Picks ($): 5-2


AFC Championship

Sunday 3 pm
COLTS (-7) vs Jets
Andy: Or as it's more popularly known, The Battle of Teams That Cost Me $30 Each Last Weekend. At least Indy had the decency to knock out an archnemesis for me. I now see the ability of this Jet team (10th in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings), but I dislike them personally, especially the villainous Braylon Edwards. What a jerk. And when you're 1-7 picking the playoffs through two rounds, you can freely pick the teams you want to win, regardless of whether you think they will. Colts. (And I think they will win the turnover battle and the game.)
Figgs: The Jets really surprised me last week, and should have convinced me that they are a quality team, but for some reason I'm still just not sold. Colts.
Nick: This line opened at 7.5 pretty much everywhere except The Mirage, and that half point is troublesome. But only giving 7, I like the Colts here. Everything has gone the Jets' way so far, from matchups, to turnovers, to Sanchez playing like a mediocre quarterback. I've waffled on the Jets' games the last two weeks and elected to go with them both times, but I'm hoping to time my departure from the bandwagon perfectly. Colts, possibly in a blowout. ($ -9)
Bucko: I'd really like to see the Colts in the Super Bowl again, but I actually think the Jets will at least keep it within 7. Peyton is the man, but they have no running game. I believe the Jets will once again run the ball well, and Revis will control Wayne. I'll be cheering for the Colts, but I think the Jets will take it.
Gopo: colts. i am 100% convinced that the jets are not a quality football team - they've gotten really lucky with some solid matchups against teams that go at their strength. they can't pass the ball at all, and they play defense by blitzing the hell out of the qb. that's not going to work against manning.


Sunday 6:40 pm
SAINTS (-4) vs Vikings
Andy: The Saints have been the most exciting team in the NFL this season - a delight to watch, a great home atmosphere, won me $54 last weekend, and featuring my favorite player in the league in Drew Brees. How can you not root for them in this game? I told Nick after they crushed Arizona that I was taking them in the NFC title game regardless of the line, and I'm sticking with that. Nick called me stupid, by the way, but I went to Carnegie Mellon, so that certainly can't be the case! Saints, all the way. And guess what, Nick? I'm taking them in the Super Bowl too.
Figgs: I really wish the Saints and Colts wouldn't have tanked it at the end of the season, cause a battle of the undefeateds would be so great. I still think the game will happen, just not with the perfect records. Nawlins.
Nick: I like the Saints here, too. The Vikings were 8-0 at home this season, and just 4-4 on the road. That should be enough to take the Saints in and of itself, but the Saints also throw effectively against big blitzes, and their secondary should be good enough to slow down the Vikes' passing attack. Also, it's going to be alot tougher for Favre to make calls at the line this week. Old dome=huge advantage. Saints. ($ -3.5)
Bucko: Guess what? I'm going with Brett Favre, Brett Favre, and Brett Favre.
Gopo: saints for sure. i've been waiting all season for favre to pull off one of his 3 int games, and i think this is it. i hope his arm falls off during one of the throws.

NFL Picks: Divisional Round

Not a good Wild-Card weekend for the FCF team. We all missed on the Ravens' disgusting win and the Cardinals' shootout victory, and only Nick hit on Dallas' pummeling of Philly. I also managed to miss the Jets for a clean 0-4 weekend, making me 1-7 the past two years on the NFL's opening round.

I was struck last weekend by the extent to which turnovers decide NFL Playoff games. I know it's not groundbreaking analysis to suggest that turnovers are important in football, but the extent to which they matter cannot be overstated. Look at last week's winners and their turnover differentials for the game:

Jets (+2)
Dallas (+3)
Baltimore (+2)
Arizona (+2)

I mean, that's absolutely staggering. This week, I'm going to try to simply pick the team who will turn the ball over the fewest times, as that is apparently the only thing that affects NFL outcomes.

In related news, three of us will be in Las Vegas for the weekend - I know I'll be laying some dollars on each these games to make things a little more exciting while I'm out west. I may even add the amount I'm wagering on each game if I get a chance. I'm also planning to put a few dollars on the Cavs' upcoming NBA Title. Hey, you only live once.

Last week
Andy: 0-4
Figgs: 1-3
Nick: 2-2
Bucko: 1-3
Gopo: 1-3
Nick's Money Picks ($): 2-1


AFC Division Playoffs

Saturday 8:15 pm
COLTS (-7) vs Ravens
Andy: The Ravens just sicken me. What a gross organization. But that's why this is such an appealing bet for me. If I take Baltimore, I get 7 points, making three scenarios possible:
1) Ravens get blown out. I lose some loot, but hey, Ravens get blown out!
2) Ravens lose a close game. Not only is this a quite likely scenario, as Gopo describes, but it's best-case for me, as their stupid purple asses get knocked out and I collect at the window. Drinks on me!
3) Ravens win. At least I'll have my precious money to make things better.
So, I'm taking Baltimore.
Figgs: I like (the pick of) the Ravens a lot here. I think they could win it outright, but probably lose by a few. Either way, I don't see it as a touchdown game. I just want to make sure to clarify that I do not, never have, or will ever like the Baltimore Ravens, I just like the pick here. One more time, Ravens = suck.
Nick: Colts. I should mention up front that I've had the opposite in every game this week, but I've really gotten down on Joe Flacco as the week progressed. If Indy can get ahead early, they'll run away with it. The key to this game? Stop Baltimore's running game. If Indy does that, they'll win handily. You can throw on the Ravens, by the way. Also, they suck.
Bucko: I feel like this might be a closer game than people think. I'm still hoping Indy wins, but I'm going to take the Ravens in this one.
Gopo: i'm really trying to be objective and set aside my hate for the ratbirds. but man, i really hate them. hmmm. this is really going to mess with my rooting loyalties, but i'll go with the ravens. they played them close the first time around and i don't think it'll be different this time.

Sunday 4:40 pm
CHARGERS (-8) vs Jets
Andy: I haven't bought the Jets all year, and I still don't. The Chargers have won 11 straight games, are rested, are at home, and are just a better football team than New York. Remember my turnover-differential discussion in the open to this article? San Diago is +10 for the year while the Jets are -2, thanks to Mark Sanchez' 20 picks, most in the AFC. More than Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn combined! Yeah, the Jets can run the ball, but that doesn't win playoff games in warm weather. Bolts.
Figgs: While watching that Jets/Bengals game last week, I continued to think, "Wow, whoever wins this will get killed by Indy or SD." I just think that the Bolts are a far superior team. San-Di-ego, super Charrrgers.
Nick: Jets. I've flip-flopped on this one like three times, but I'm back to my original pick. Without looking past the surface, I'd totally go Bolts here. Rivers vs. Sanchez should be enough to pick San Diego, right? Here's the thing - the Chargers' weaknesses play right into the Jets' strengths. The Jets can run the ball well, and the Chargers can't stop it. The Chargers are an incredible passing team, and the Jets are incredible against the pass, featuring the best corner in the league. I don't know if the Jets can win this outright, so I'm going to take the points, unlike last week. But 7.5 is too many here, and I think the Jets can keep it within the margin. ($ +7.5)
Bucko: I actually think the Jets are a better team than most analysts think they are. This is just one point too high for me. I take the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets!
Gopo: that line is high. i think the chargers will win, but not sure its by more than a td. i'll go with the jets for now.


NFC Wild-Card Playoffs

Sunday 4:30 pm
SAINTS (-7) vs Cards
Andy: Whoa, it's getting crowded there on the Cardinals' bandwagon! I'll be sticking with the Saints. Rested, home in front of an insane crowd, with a defense that forces turnovers and an offense that can score in bunches. Everyone forgot about them because they lost a tough one to Dallas and a couple of unimportant season-enders, but this is still an excellent team. And check out the TO margin: Saints (+14), Cardinals (-5). The top team in the playoffs vs the bottom. Huge. [Granted, this was also the case with +25 Green Bay a week ago, but I can't let one game override my percentages.] I'll buck the national feeling and lay those points to back the 'Aints.
Figgs: The NFC games are much tougher to pick in my mind. This is gonna be a shootout, which means a late score may be meaningless but flip the spread. I'm going with the Cards, just because I wouldn't be surprised if they made a run like last year.
Nick: Saints. This feels like a huge "fade the public" game, and Kurt Warner can't play like Dan Marino two weeks in a row. The Saints also feel like they're playing for the still-wounded city of New Orleans, and they have one of the few remaining home-field advantages in the SuperDome. This game is kind of a crap shoot, but I'm betting that the Cards have trouble slowing down the Saints, and the Cards can't move the ball as well as they did last week. Plus, I really want to root for the Saints balls-out in this one. This is my dumbest bet of the weekend.
Bucko: I'm so pissed that Green Bay is out. The face mask should have been called. I'm going with the Cards here. I actually think they'll make it to the NFC Championship.
Gopo: i think the saints get shocked by the cards. they haven't been playing very well down the stretch and arizona is coming off a great game.

Sunday 1 pm
VIKINGS (-3) vs Cowboys
Andy: I've been wanting to bet against Minny for a month, and now I get a Cowboy team that's rolling and getting three points with which to do so. Not a huge TO differential (Dal +1, Min +4), but Tony Romo's ball security (ha!) has been excellent - just 5 picks in his past 13 outings. I've been lukewarm on Dallas all season, but it's time for me to recognize that they're good. As long as Tony Romo remembers where Jared Allen is and Brett Favre remembers how much he enjoys throwing the ball to the other team, Dallas can pull this off. Cowboys.
Figgs: I have no idea here. Will Tony Romo 'Tony Romo' it or will Bret Favre 'Bret Favre' it. My bet is that Homo makes the more costly mistake. Vikes.
Nick: Boys. I'm terrified that I've now piggy-backed all of Bill Simmons' picks, but hey, he can't go 0-4 again next week, right? This is my favorite game on the board. The Cowboys look tough, and the Vikings have some key injuries that hurt their defense. The Dallas defense is so fast, and turf will only make them faster. They will pressure Favre without blitzing against a suspect Minnesota line. Plus, I feel for Tony Romo. Dude gets a bad rap. Romo's a good quarterback, and seems like a new enough fella. I don't hate the Cowboys like some people, as I'm indebted to them for beating the Steelers in the Super Bowl back in the '90s. Plus, I like the Cowboys' running game. (Dallas - straight up)
Bucko: Like Frank Caliendo as Madden all I can say is Brett Favre, Brett Favre, Brett Favre! He'll find a way to pull it out in a close game. I'll say it first here. I wouldn't be suprised if Favre is a Brown next year.
Gopo: cowboys. i actually think the cowboys win this one outright - they are just rolling at the right time.

NFL Picks: Wild-Card Round

Another season of guessing NFL lines is complete, at least the regular portion of it, and all of our prognosticators finished above .500. Andy edged Nick and Figgs to take the full-season title at 52.8%, while Dasharath and Bucko made their short-season debuts to the tune of 54.1% and 53.8%, respectively. Nick hit on 55.0% of his Money Picks, making the 2009 season a profitable one as well. Let's look at the Week 17 results and the final standings:

Last week
Andy: 10-6
Figgs: 9-7
Nick: 9-7
Bucko: 9-7
Gopo: 10-6
Nick's Money Picks ($): 3-1

Final regular-season results
Andy: 133-119-4
Figgs: 128-124-4
Nick: 129-123-4
Bucko: 42-36-2
Gopo: 33-28-3
Nick's Money Picks ($): 33-27

But we're certainly not done for the year - it's playoff time! Everyone loves the NFL's postseason, and we at FCF are no exception. We may even have a special feature for next week's division round.

The Wild-Card round is peculiar this year because we have THREE rematches of games played just last week! What are the odds of that? Well, considering that each team has 31 prospective opponents, the chances of any one team facing their Week 17 foe in a first-round playoff matchup should be 1/31. Not so fast - teams play more intraconference games (12) than interconference tilts (4), so it's actually 1/20 (3/4 intraconference games)*(1/15 other conference clubs) . Intradivision games are even more frequent, but not all Wild-Card matchups are necessarily intradivision, so we can't factor that in. But still! That makes the odds of having three such games in one Wild-Card weekend (1/20)*(1/20)*(1/17) = 1/6933, or roughly 0.014%. The 1/17 accounts for the fact that, in the conference with two rematches, two teams are taken out of the randomness. I'm sure I made a mistake in this calculation, but it's at least a good approximation and should give you some idea how odd this is.

Anyway, onto the games:

AFC Wild-Card Playoffs

Saturday 4:30 pm
BENGALS (-2.5) vs Jets
Andy: Wow, did the Jets ever destroy Cincinnati last weekend. Granted, Cincy wasn't at full strength, but still. I feel like people are lining up to get behind the AFC's New Jersey team, but I've liked this Bengal team all year and I still think they're tough. I'm bucking the national feeling (PTI asked: are the Jets a Super Bowl favorite?) and going with my Ohio mates. Bengals.
Figgs: I've been back and forth with both of these teams all year, so I'm pretty torn in this one. I don't have any confidence in Sanchez at all, but I do have a lot of confidence in their running game. Jets.
Nick: I really like the Jets here. Revis will take Ocho away, and I don't think Cincy has enough left in the passing game to make an impact. What the hell happened to Carson Palmer? He looked like the heir apparent to Manning a few years ago. These teams are kind of mirror images in that they both do the same things well - play defense and run the ball. The thing is, the Jets are doing both of those things better right now. Sanchez on the road in cold weather spooks me, but I think the Jets scheme around him and win the right to get destroyed in Indianapolis next week. ($ - straight up)
Bucko: I'm going with the J-E-T-S in this one. I completely agree with Nick's comments. I also feel the week off for Benson is going to hurt him.
Gopo: i too have gone back and forth on this several times. i'm going with my gut and picking the jets - also because the bengals haven't been playing very well recently. plus, it's always dangerous when your team is saying "we'll just step it up this time" after getting blown out the week before.

Sunday 1 pm
PATRIOTS (-3) vs Ravens
Andy: I don't have a really strong feeling on this one either way, except for two factors: 1) New England is really, really good at playoff games and 2) I really, really hate the Baltimore Ravens. Pats.
Figgs: Just like everyone else said. Brady, Belichick, Gillette, and the playoffs all put together? Even without Welker you gotta like the Pats in this one.
Nick: If I were forced to bet this, I'd go Pats because they're really tough at Gillette and it's usually pretty safe to pick Brady/Belichick in the playoffs. That said, the Welker thing throws a huge wrench into this, and I came to the conclusion that the only reason I was betting this game was to increase my interest - and that's not good when you're trying to win your bets. Hating the Ravens gives me plenty of interest, because with Pittsburgh on the outside looking in, Baltimore is now my number one enemy that needs to be destroyed. Pats.
Bucko: The Pats are without Welker, but I believe Baltimore is down a DB as well. I just don't think Rice can carry Baltimore in this one. Plus the Pats are at home.
Gopo: the only team i might hate more than the pats is the ravens. i wish them zero success. pats for one week only.


NFC Wild-Card Playoffs

Saturday 8 pm
COWBOYS (-4) vs Eagles
Andy: A few weeks ago, I would have laughed at this line, but Dallas completely dominated a Philly team with lots at stake last weekend to earn home-field in this one. The Cowboys are peaking, and Philly hasn't looked too strong these past couple of weeks. But I'm still taking the Eagles, who had a 6-game winning streak before their Dallas debacle. Andy Reid is good at two things: 1) wearing that one awesome hat he had in like 2002 and 2) advancing his team to the NFC title game. Eagles.
Figgs: I was planning on going with Philly for weeks, but now I don't know after last week's game. I guess I'm still gonna lead towards the Eagles, but I'm not comfortable with this one.
Nick: Dallas is getting hot at the right time, and they'll be at home with 110,000 packed into Dallas Stadium. You're telling me that the Boys are only a point better than the Iggles at a neutral site? I'm not buying it. Philly might have called off some of their blitz packages in the second half, but the Cowboys were running the ball at 6 YPG in addition to throwing it around. Philly's center is out for the remainder of the season, which is enormous this late in the year. The only way Philly has a shot is if Donovan can hook up with DeSean Jackson for two or three big plays. I think Dallas contains him. Pokes. ($)
Bucko: I know the Eagles got pounded last week, but for some reason I think they will bounce back here. I think they will do a better job of containing the Cowboy's running game. McNabb plays very well and Wade is still winless in the playoffs.
Gopo: eagles have been a team to be hot and cold all year. if they had won last week, i would have picked the cowboys. since they lost, i'm picking the eagles. makes perfect sense, right?

Sunday 4:40 pm
CARDS (-1) vs Packers
Andy: In taking the Bengals and Eagles, I've assumed a certain degree of revenge/pride motivation on the part of teams with rematches against opposing clubs who embarrassed them just a week earlier. For some reason, I view the Cards as too quirky and soft to draw such inspiration. Plus, I don't think they can stop Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense. Packers.
Figgs: I like the Pack here too. Rodgers might just take this team to the Super Bowl.
Nick: I'm calling for a complete repeat Sunday. The Packers could easily be riding an eight-game winning streak if not for the debauchery in Pittsburgh, and you could argue that they're playing the best football in the NFC. Green Bay's going to score enough to win, it's just a matter of whether or not their defense can contain Fitz and force Kurt Warner to move laterally. You pressure Warner and limit Fitz's big plays, and you win. Maybe even comfortably. Pack. ($)
Bucko: Packers all the way in this one. Rodgers has already had a great year, and he is getting a little better protection from his line. This guy should be in the MVP discussion. 4th in yards, 4th in QB rating, 4th in TD's, only 7 int's (least among starters), 64.7 completion %. Boldin still appears to be hurt. Woodson is playing awesome this year, and will be all over Larry Fitz. I'm predicting a GB vs. Indy Super Bowl. Both teams are possibilities for Bucko's future favorite team. Go Pack.
Gopo: packers. the only game i feel good about picking out of these four, which probably means that i'm getting it wrong. i don't think the cards d has a chance in hell of stopping the packers, and i think the packers will stop the cards enough to take this one.

Third time's the charm

"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
- Albert Einstein

BROWNS (-1.5) vs Jags
Andy: BROWNS.
Figgs: BROWNS.
Nick: Browns run the table.
Bucko: Browns
Gopo: yags.

Sorry, Gopo, had to give you a hard time. Four-game winning streaks for the Browns are incredibly rare.

NFL Picks: Week 17

This season can't end soon enough, as far as ATS-guessing goes. Hell, I can't even type things in right. The Raider line was obviously +10.5, and Figgs is right, there's no week 17 MNF. It's because of College bowl games.

Last week
Andy: 6-9-1
Figgs: 10-5-1
Nick: 6-9-1
Bucko: 9-6-1
Gopo: 6-9-1
Nick's Money Picks ($): 1-0

Year to date
Andy: 123-113-4
Figgs: 119-117-4
Nick: 120-116-4
Bucko: 33-29-2
Gopo: 23-22-3
Nick's Money Picks ($): 30-26

Sunday games
1:00 pm kickoffs

BROWNS (-1.5) vs Jags
Andy: I'm totally with Nick, especially when I look out my window and see the snow blowing. The Jags are totally not going to be interested in playing this contest, and the Browns have thrived in these conditions of late. I mean, I'm not even going, and I live here. And you have no idea how much I want to post this part as a comment with Dasharath picking against the Browns and being wrong three weeks in a row. That would be terrific. BROWNS.
Figgs: Three down, 20 to go. Look out Colts. BROWNS.
Nick: I was going to go Jags until I checked the forecast. As Arnold Schwarzenegger once said, "It's time....TO FREEEEEEZE!!!!" Browns run the table.
Bucko: I don't know if the Browns can win 4 in a row. I wonder if the Jags have given up yet. They need too much help to make it. Browns
Gopo: yags - browns have been coming up big, but i can't see them taking down the jaguars.

BUFFALOES (+7) vs Colts
Andy: I'm taking the Buffaloes here. Manning played a half against the Jets and they got smacked at home, so it doesn't seem right to give so many points here. It's up to -9, but everyone else picked on -7, so I'll accept that. Buffaloes.
Figgs: I don't know what to think after The Coach let me down last week. I still go with Indy.
Nick: I switched this one late. Just like the Jags, the Colts are not going to want to be outside in Buffalo with nothing to play for.
Bucko: Why are the Colts even showing up? Buffalo
Gopo: bills - colts are rolling over these days, and i think buffalo will come out to play.

LIONS (+3) vs Bears
Andy: This is one of those odd lines that makes me wonder if I'm missing something. Anytime I wonder, "why on earth would you take so and so?" they end up covering. But still, why would you take the Lions and only get three? They're averaging a 14-point loss this season. Bears.
Figgs: I'm with everyone else, Chi-town.
Nick: Lovie Smith needs this win to help justify his job, and the Lions are awful. Bears. ($)
Bucko: Cutler and the coach are playing for pride. Bears
Gopo: bears - cutler won me my fantasy league last week after sucking it up all season. i'll pick the bears for that reason alone.

RAMS (+7) vs 49ers
Andy: I don't think even Matt Foley could motivate St Louis for this game. I hope Ndamukong Suh has the NFL Sunday Ticket so he can watch his new team. 49ers.
Figgs: Niners.
Nick: The Rams clinch the number one pick this week. Niners. ($)
Bucko: 49ers
Gopo: niners - rams are really bad. and it doesn't look like steven jackson is going to play (though that guy is a beast, so i wouldn't be surprised if he does).

DOLPHINS (+3) vs Steelers
Andy: The Steelers have Pushed two weeks in a row, and I think they're going to win by 3. What's a brother to do? I suppose I'll take Miami so I can root against the Steelers without inner conflict. Dolphins.
Figgs: Steelers, but hopefully they still won't get in.
Nick: I'll go Fish. Both teams have been playing tight games, and Pittsburgh's playoff hopes end NOW.
Bucko: Steelers
Gopo: steelers - pittsburgh needs this win. they can finish this awful season on a high note.

VIKINGS (-9) vs Giants
Andy: Remember how we all took the Vikings the past two weeks and they didn't cover? Um, Vikings anyway.
Figgs: Too high of a line for a team that has layed an egg the last two weeks. G-Men.
Nick: I like Bucko's thinking. Vikes.
Bucko: The Giants might be sitting a few banged up people. Favre is playing for a bye. Vikings
Gopo: vikings - giants just aren't a good team right now.

BUCS (+2.5) vs Falcons
Andy: I like the Falcons in this one - they've been solid if unspectacular all year, and that should be enough to beat Tampa. Birds.
Figgs: Definitely too low of a line. ATL.
Nick: Birds. I feel like this should be higher, but the Bucs have burned me the last few weeks so I'm going to stay away.
Bucko: Falcons
Gopo: falcons - ryan looks like he's back. bucs come back to earth.

PANTHERS (-3) vs Saints
Andy: Panthers. Losing Jake Delhomme was the best thing to happen to this club.
Figgs: The Saints are obviously sleep walking through the finish of the regular season, and playing against a suddenly inspired Carolina squad. Cats.
Nick: Panthers.
Bucko: Saints
Gopo: panthers - saints can't stop the run, and that's all the panthers do.

TEXANS (-9) vs Patriots
Andy: I have literally been waiting all season to pick a Texans game where they have a chance to go 8-8, and here's my chance. They're 8-7, so on general principle, I have to pick against them - nice that I get 8 points to do so. Pats.
Figgs: The Texans probably win this, but 9? Against New England? No way. Pats.
Nick: Texans. Belichick's dumb if Brady plays a single snap.
Bucko: Texans
Gopo: texans - they need this game for the playoffs, and i don't think the starters play all the way through for the pats.


4:00 pm kickoffs

CARDS (-3) vs Pack
Andy: Who wants it less? I'll go with Green Bay, mostly because of how much Arizona has annoyed me this season. Packers.
Figgs: This is kind of a toss up, so I'm just gonna go with whoever is getting points. Pack.
Nick: Would you ever bet this game? Pack.
Bucko: CARDS
Gopo: packers - two teams that can't play d, but can throw with the best of them. i'll take the points.

CHARGERS (-3.5) vs Redskins
Andy: Chargers, even without their top guns in. These guys will definitely be playing all-out to get 11 straight, and the Redskins don't care. Bolts.
Figgs: Chargers.
Nick: Another game that I would never bet. Billy Volek's starting, but the Redskins are in total disarray. Bolts.
Bucko: Redskins
Gopo: chargers - why is this line so low? chargers should win by over a td.

SEAHAWKS (+4.5) vs Titans
Andy: Titans. The Seahawks have just been getting kicked around recently, even in Qwest.
Figgs: Seattle is really bad. Fighting Fishers.
Nick: Titans. Seattle's bad enough that their home field advantage can't save them anymore.
Bucko: Titans
Gopo: titties - seahawks are done.

RAIDERS (+10.5) vs Ravens
Andy: Fuck Baltimore. I want to be able to root for this one cleanly and direct my full venom at the Ratbirds, so I'm going Raiders.
Figgs: I'm pretty sure this is supposed to be Oakland +10.5 Editor's note: yes. Either way, Ravens.
Nick: I got in on the Birds three weeks ago at -5.5 for a few bones, further proof that I'm a genius. I'll take them at both lines though.
Bucko: This spread is crazy. Obviously I mis-typed it - Andy Ravens
Gopo: raiders - going with my heart here. hope the raiders can step up.

COWBOYS (-3) vs Eagles
Andy: Nice little Week 17 matchup. Philly's seeding can end up anywhere from #2 to #6. They'll take this one. Eagles.
Figgs: Close call, but I'll go Philly.
Nick: The Boys have shaken off their December swoon, but the Eagles have quietly won six straight. I'll take the Iggles and the points in what could be a very entertaining game.
Bucko: Eagles
Gopo: eagles - cowboys have been playing well, but i think the eagles are the most talented team in the nfc.

BRONCOS (-13) vs Chieves
Andy: Nick is right - the Broncos destroyed KC in KC, and they've playing for a potential playoff spot here while KC is playing for nothing. Denver, even with all those points.
Figgs: Broncos, but I'd be a lot more comfortable if it were three or four points lower.
Nick: My instinct says this is too high, but the Broncos did beat Kansas City by 31 at Arrowhead a month ago, and I think they help tighten the noose around the Steelers' collective neck. Donks.
Bucko: Broncos
Gopo: chiefs - i will continue picking against the broncos.

Sunday Night Game
8:30 pm kickoff

JETS (-10) vs Bengals
Andy: I'm going with Cincy. People have been underestimating them all year, and I don't see them getting blown out here. Bengals.
Figgs: I went back and forth with this one, but with Cincy's starters sitting, I'll take the Jets. By the way, this is the Sunday Night game and Den/KC is 4:15. There's never a Week 17 Monday Nighter for some reason. Corrected
Nick: Jets. The Bengals are a paper tiger (get it?) when they play their starters, and they'll get beat up without them.
Bucko: The Bengals will be playing it safe here. Jets
Gopo: bengals - jets win this one, but i think the line is too high. hope i'm wrong and the bengals come out to play...

NFL Picks: Week 16

Let's face it: the magic is gone for Andy Francis. After a stellar 2008 campaign and strong first half of 2009, the wheels have fallen off, as I've placed last three weeks in a row. With just two weeks left in the regular season, my lead is increasingly in jeopardy, sitting at just three games. All I need is one strong week to put it away, but those have been hard to come by of late. Meanwhile, newcomers Bucko (52%) and Gopo (57%) have made solid early showings. Let's see how our team sees the penultimate week shaking out:

Last week
Andy: 6-8-2
Figgs: 7-7-2
Nick: 7-7-2
Bucko: 6-8-2
Gopo: 7-7-2
Nick's Money Picks ($): 2-1

Year to date
Andy: 117-104-3
Figgs: 109-112-3
Nick: 114-107-3
Bucko: 24-22-2
Gopo:17-13-2
Nick's Money Picks ($): 29-26

Friday game
8:20 pm kickoff

TITANS (-3) vs Chargers
Andy: These teams are on a combined 16-1 run; not a bad matchup at all. I think the Titties need this one and will come through on xmas day. Titans.
Figgs: This should be a another good game that no one will see. I'm hoping for the Titans to hurt the Steelers, but I just can't see any reasoning on why they would be favored. If this was Chargrs -3 it would be a really tough call, but +3? SD, "book it."
Nick: Titans. Tennessee has more to play for, and Vince Young wins games. Happy birthday Jesus!
Bucko: I'm not for sure what Chargers team will show up, but I know Johnson and the Tit-ans will. Titans.
Gopo: chargers - the team is just playing well right now. i have a hard time seeing the titties stop that offense. johnson is going to have a huge day, but i think the titties will have to throw to stay in it.


Sunday games
1:00 pm kickoffs

BROWNS (-3) vs Raiders
Andy: Nick and I are going to this game, straight representin'. Time to strech this to three against a cold, disinterested Raider team that would rather play absolutely anyone at QB instead of JaMarcus Russell. BROWNS.
Figgs: Wait, we're predicited to WIN a game?!?! BROWNS.
Nick: Browns. There's a new NFL rule that grants a playoff exemption to one 5-11 team each year. After we finish off the Raiders and Jagoffs, I think we're a strong candidate. Super Bowl.
Bucko: Browns
Gopo: Raiders. Andy's note: I'm hoping that our Steeler-fan cohort Gopo turns into a WWE-style heel and picks against the Browns every week.

FALCONS (-9) vs Buffaloes
Andy: I don't see why Atlanta is getting quite so many points here - I'll take Perry Fewell's Buffalo squad.
Figgs: Buffalo seems like a good pick here, but I like pickng the ATL and I hate picking the Jills. Dirrty Birrds.
Nick: I like the Billskies here too. Atlanta's getting too much credit for past performance.
Bucko: Buffalo.
Gopo: Buffaloes

BENGALS (-13.5) vs Chieves
Andy: Bengals. I've seen Kansas City try to defend the rush, and it isn't pretty. The Bengals are going to be refocused after the tough loss to San Diago and should just pound the Chieves.
Figgs: Bengals have no problem winning this one, but the line's a little high for me. KC.
Nick: Cincy. The Chiefs are really bad against the run, and that's one thing that the Bengals do really well.
Bucko: Chieves
Gopo: Chieves

PACKERS (-14) vs Seahawks
Andy: It's simple: you lose to a 1-12 team by 19 points at home, I don't take you the following week. Look for the Pack to regroup in the cold against a suddenly-awful Seattle team.
Figgs: Suddenly awful? I don't remember a time when they didn't blow. Pack.
Nick: Gotta take the Pack here, right? They need this game and Seattle's really been one of the league's worst. They just got stomped by the Bucs at Qwest, after all.
Bucko: Packers
Gopo: Seahawks

STEELERS (-3) vs Ravens
Andy: I think the Steelers have their mojo back after that win against the Packers. They nearly knocked off Baltimore in the Murder City a few weeks ago with Dennis Dixon quarterbacking - I think maybe a guy who threw for 500 yards last week might be able to get them over the hump. Steelers.
Figgs: I hate when the situation makes me root for one of these teams, as I have to cheer for the ratbirds in this one to knock the Stillers out of the playoffs. That has nothing to do with my pick however, as I'm going with shitsburgh.
Nick: Ugh, Steelers. These goddamn cockroaches won't go away. My feelings towards the Steelers and their fans are just like Indiana Jones' feelings towards Nazis - "I hate these guys." My friend Chris: "People don't understand how much I hate Pittsburgh. I hate the very idea of Pittsburgh. I hate everything it stands for."
Bucko: Ravens
Gopo: Steelers

DOLPHINS (-3) vs Texans
Andy: Hate this game. The Texans are at .500, so I can't use my usual rule with them, the Dolphins are finicky, both teams have the same record, and Miami is getting the customary three-point home-field edge. Dolphins.
Figgs: I'm with Andy, toughest one on the board this week. I don't want to offend Nick this week so I'll just say Texans.
Nick: The Dolphins keep playing these coin flip games. I'll keep riding them.
Bucko: Texans
Gopo: Dolphins

PATRIOTS (-9) vs Jaguars
Andy: If Buffalo could keep it close with New England, one would think a playoff-contending Jacksonville team could too, but they suck on the road. What's the weirdest NFL score of 2009: Seattle waxing the Jags 41-0, or New England pasting Tennessee 59-0? Since that 100-0 combined effort happened with the Jags on the road and Pats at home, let's go Pats.
Figgs: Sound logic by Andy. Pats.
Nick: Pats. The Jags seem to play well at home, and not so much on the road.
Bucko: Jaguars
Gopo: Patriots

SAINTS (-14) vs Bucs
Andy: This week, I'll spare everyone an essay on why the Saints should win big and simply pick them. Saints.
Figgs: The Saints have kept games close lately, but not this one. NO.
Nick: Really like the Saints here.
Bucko: Saints
Gopo: Buccaneers

GIANTS (-7) vs Panthers
Andy: I'm now 3-11 picking the Panthers. They own me. This is ridiculous. And since I don't have a good feel for this, I'm going to pick them just so they lose, out of spite. Fuck you, Carolina. Panthers.
Figgs: The Giants win, but by less than a TD. Cats.
Nick: I'm having trouble feeling out this Giants team, but I'll pick them at home in a game they have to win against a mediocre opponent.
Bucko: Panthers
Gopo: Panthers

4:00 pm kickoffs

49ERS (-13) vs Lions
Andy: Detroit is AVERAGING a 22-point loss every time they set foot on an opponent's field, and they're missing their starting QB. 49ers.
Figgs: Too high of a line for a team that's not very good. Lions.
Nick: 'Nuff said, Andy. Niners.
Bucko: 49ers
Gopo: Lions

CARDS (-14) vs Rams
Andy: Wouldn't you think that Arizona at home, even with 2 TD's, should be taken against a team as bad as the Rams? You would, but Arizona is just 3-3 at home and has yet to cover a spread of this magnitude, even against Seattle. Meanwhile, St Louis loses a lot, but have only been routed once in the past 7 weeks. Weirdly, I say Rams.
Figgs: I like the Cards to put up some big numbers here.
Nick: Cards
Bucko: Cards
Gopo: Rams

COLTS (-5.5) vs Jets
Andy: A half of Manning and company is good enough against the punchless Jets. Colts.
Figgs: If I were to bet on a game this week it would be this one. (Besides San Diego on Friday, who I did bet on. How easy was that? Underdogs?) As The Coach told us last week, Peyton and his boys will play most if not all of this game, and Indy wins by over a touchdown.
Nick: The Jets suck enough for the Colts to win by 6 in a meaningless game. Colts.
Bucko: Jets
Gopo: Colts

EAGLES (-7) vs Broncos
Andy: After a 6-0 start, Denver fell to Earth like they'd been dropped from a mile high. Thanks, I'll be here all weekend. Eagles.
Figgs: I feel like Kenny Bania trying to follow that one. Philly.
Nick: This line should be higher. Eagles.
Bucko: Eagles
Gopo: Eagles

8:20 pm kickoffs

REDSKINS (+6.5) vs Cowboys
Andy: All of my "if this happened, then this should happen" hypotheses fall flat, but seriously, if Dallas could go into the Superdome and stick it to the Saints like they did, can't they roll the hapless 'Skins up by a TD? I say yes. 'Boys.
Figgs: Washington's players quit last week, as did Jim Zorn. Did they really run that awful fake even after NY knew it was coming, when it was a terrible play and terrible time to do it in the first place? Cowboys all day here.
Nick: 'Boys in my favorite game on the board. ($)
Bucko: Cowboys
Gopo: Cowboys


Monday Night Game
8:30 pm kickoff

BEARS (+7) vs Vikings
Andy: I don't pick the Bears, and with good reason: they're the league's worst against the spread, along with another team I picked against this week. Vikings.
Figgs: I don't know why spreads aren't higher against Chicago, they're awful. Vikes.
Nick: Vikings. I turned on the Bears right after they stomped the Browns, which was the perfect time. They suck. Lovie Smith should be fired. He got carried to that Super Bowl by a great defense.
Bucko: Vikings
Gopo: Vikings

NFL Picks: Week 15

More like Sin City Fanatics! Week 14 was an excellent week for all five prognosticators (53-27 combined record), highlighted by Bucko's sparkling 12-4 mark and a solid 10-6 debut from Gopo. We'll see if this gets trickier over the last few weeks, as a lot of lines stay Off until late because of QB injuries and teams clinching playoff position and resting starters.

In other news, this is the one week per year where I enter a fun nickname for every team! I haven't decided whether I'm going to have a Spanish picks week yet.

Things are really close heading down to the last three weeks, with me holding a slim four-game advantage over a hard-charging Nick. Part of this may be due to the fact that I've been holding Houston Texan-like at .500 over the past six weeks. As Snoop would say in his Snoop Dogg's iFizzle App: "Step yo' game up!"

Last week
Andy: 10-6
Figgs: 10-6
Nick: 11-5
Bucko: 12-4
Gopo: 10-6
Nick's Money Picks ($): 1-1

Year to date
Andy: 111-96-1
Figgs: 102-105-1
Nick: 107-100-1
Bucko: 18-14
Gopo: 10-6
Nick's Money Picks ($): 27-25

Thursday game
8:20 pm kickoff

JAGONS (+3) vs Peytons
Andy: I was leaning Jags in a bold pick, but I'm not taking them if I only get 3 points. Besides, why get cute and pick against a team that's won twenty-two straight games against a club I haven't bought into all year? Horsies.
Figgs: I'm sticking with Nick's philosophy of not picking a team that you don't think will win the game if the line is low. I'll taking the Fighting Peyton's.
Nick: It's 5:36, and I'm about to pull a 180 on this one. All things being equal, I'd take the Colts. The Colts are usually good ATS on the road, and the Jags typically struggle ATS at home. But the home teams have fought hard in these "nationally broadcast" Thursday nighters, and I just don't have a feel for how the Colts are going to handle playing their starters. And there's the psychological factor - the Jags are fighting for their playoff lives, but what's Indy's incentive to lay it on the line in the second half? The shine's been taken off a 16-0 regular season since New England did it two years ago. I might be talking myself into this one, but a great coach once said, "In any fight, it's the guy who's willing to die who's gonna win that inch." That's Jacksonville. Book it.
Bucko: It sounds like Manning is playing. I'll take the Colts tonight. Peyton is the shit!
Gopo: colts - as long as manning plays, i'll stick with them. surprised the line is so low though...


Saturday game
8:20 pm kickoff

'AINTS (-7.5) vs America's Team
Andy: For some perspective on this matchup, let's go to Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips for his thoughts on facing the 13-0 Saints:
Usually when people say you can't do something, people bow up and have a lot of pride...I don't think our confidence is we can't do it and we got to do something else to be able to do it...We're not going to cow down to these guys.
Let me get this straight. I'm supposed to take the club that is facing the undefeated New Orleans juggernaut, playing a Saturday night game on the road in the league's toughest venue, riding a 37-game December losing streak, AND whose head coach can't form a coherent sentence and expects his team to "bow up" but not "cow down"? No thanks. Saints.
Figgs: I've been going back and forth on this one. I don't like picking against the Saints, and Phillips' rambling doesn't give me too much confidence, but I'm gonna go with Dallas. The Saints stay undefeated, but closer than the experts think.
Nick: The Saints were lighting up the league early this season and Vegas adjusted with some big lines. As such, the Saints have struggled the last six weeks or so against the spread. Here we have a combination of the pendulum swinging back a bit and the usual Vegas juice for the Cowboys of around three points. The Saints have squeaked by the last two weeks, but it's been in afternoon games on the road against mediocre opponents. This is a slaughter in the Super Dome. Saints. ($ -7)
Bucko: I'd love to see the Saints just destroy the Cowboys here, but I don't believe that's going to happen. We may only have one undefeated team after this one. Saints could pull it out, but the BadBoys will cover. Cowboys
Gopo: cowboys - i've changed this pick while writing this sentence twice already. i think saints will win, but they've been keeping things close against worse teams the last couple weeks. that said, i might log back on in 5 minutes and change this again.


Sunday games
1:00 pm kickoffs

BUFFALOES (+7) vs Patsies
Andy: I just don't know about this New England club anymore. I'm not saying there isn't a good chance they can win this - there is - but they're not the dominant force they once were. Plus, Buffalo has been scrappy for their new coach and I get seven points. PLUS, I just rewatched the 1993 AFC Wild-Card game where they came back from down 35-3 (the Frank Reich Game) and I'm on a bit of a Buffaloes kick. Buffalo.
Figgs: It's been hurting me that I keep sticking with New England, but I've come this far, I might as well keep running with em. Pats.
Nick: New England usually has Buffalo's number. This lineis higher than it should be, but I'm going to bank on New England winning this one comfortably.
Bucko: Pats. I believe they will win this big.
Gopo: pats - i think they're starting to feel the pressure after a couple losses they didn't think they'd have. they pull it together.

MOTOR CITY KITTIES (+12.5) vs Are There Even Actual Cardinals in Arizona? Why Not Change to the "Cacti" When You Moved?
Andy: This Detroit team simply plays no defense. The up-and-down Cards picked a good week to be on the way up, so I'm going Arizona here. They can't turn the ball over 7 times in two consecutive weeks, right? Cardinals.
Figgs: Cards.
Nick: I'm going to go Cards here too. This line is probably about where it should be, but like Andy said, the Lions just can't stop anybody. Most good teams should cover big numbers against them.
Bucko: The birds bounce back this week. Cards
Gopo: cards - would have considered the lions if stafford was playing, but i have no faith in culpepper.

TITTIES (-4) vs Fish
Andy: I have a soft spot for Tennessee, and this one is a bit of a toss-up for me so I think I'll lean their way in my least favorite game on the board. Plus, I always give them a little extra credit during the week where I call them the "titties." Don't know why that might be. Titties.
Figgs: To quote the Dead Schembechlers, "Chad Henne is a bitch, a motherfucking bitch." Titans.
Nick: Maybe a little too far with the "Dead Schembechlers" thing, Figgs. This was the toughest game for me to pick. I might change this later, but right now I think I've got to take the points here because Tennessee simply hasn't been viery good ATS against good teams. I'll stick with the Dolphins for now.
Bucko: I think the Tit-ans can win by a least a TD.
Gopo: dolphins - these are two of the same teams basically. run heavy, ok qbs. i think it'll be close.

CHIEVES (+1) vs Brownies
Andy: Damn, so close to being a favorite! I'm sure Pittsburgh fans will be eager to check out this matchup of two out of the past three teams to have defeated them; if they miss it, they can catch another such matchup next Sunday at Cleveland Browns Stadium. This will be a really interesting game for our heroes - was the Pittsburgh game an anomaly against a struggling team in weird weather, or have the Browns toughened up? I'm putting my vote behind the latter, plus I get to bet against a KC team that is really pretty awful. BROWNS!
Figgs: I can't pick against us when there's actually a chgance we can win. Brownies.
Nick: I don't expect much throwing in this one, and the Chiefs have been giving up nearly 200 YPG on the ground recently. The Browns really aren't a bad running team, and I think a Cribbs/Jennings combo can do some real damage. For the second week in a row, Browns.
Bucko: For the first time I'm actually picking the Browns to win.
Gopo: chiefs - sorry boys, i think kc is a better club than what you guys have right now. plus browns have a bunch of folks on d hurt.

EWES (+14) vs .500's
Andy: Texans, big. If there's one thing this New Galveston team does, it's beat bad teams by a lot. And finish .500. This game is perfect for both of those. Cows.
Figgs: This is a big line, but Houston can out up some big points. Texans.
Nick: Can't imagine taking the the Rams here. If you're betting, you either stay away or take the chalk.
Bucko: I'm going with the Texans, but I might change before kick-off.
Gopo: texans - ugh. line is so big. last week i went against a giant line with the rams and it bit me. never trust a qb named 'null'

J!E!T!S! (-6) vs The ATL
Andy: New Jersey can run the ball, has a chance at a playoff spot, will have Sanchez at QB, and is facing an ATL team I don't trust in cold weather and possibly snow. I'll lay these six. Jetz.
Figgs: Is Ryan or Turner playing? I'll go with the Dirrty Birrds in case one of them does.
Nick: I'm not sure what the quarterback situation is here, but right now I'm going Birds.
Bucko: Once again we are going to see some heavy JET running. Jets
Gopo: falcons - they surprised me last week by keeping it close. i think they play well. especially since matt ryan is back.

IGGLES (-9) vs Gold-Diggaz
Andy: Philly should win this easily, though San Fran's unusually strong MNF performance spooks me a bit. Still, Philly's riding a four-game win streak and knows this one virtually assures them of the NFC East. Eagles.
Figgs: Little too high of a line for me, I like the Niners to keep it close.
Nick: Niners on the East Coast in the snow? I like the Eagles big here.
Bucko: Very hard one for me, but I'm going Niners
Gopo: niners - philly is a roller coaster team. i think they come back down on this one.

ART MODELL WILL NEVER DESERVE TO BE IN THE HALL OF FAME (-11) vs Da Bears
Andy: I hate this, but Ravens. Hate this. Hate the Ravens. I feel like C-3PO describing Jawas - disgusting creatures. Ratbirds.
Figgs: Ugh, ratbirds.
Nick: Ravens, in one of my favorite games of the week. ($ -9.5)
Bucko: Ravens
Gopo: bears - i'm picking the conditions in this one. i don't think either team puts up many points in this one.

4:00 pm kickoffs

SUPER CHARGERS (-6.5) vs Cincitucky Bungles
Andy: This one says "stay away" to me loud and clear, because: how will the Bengals respond after a drubbing in Minnesota and the death of Chris Henry? My read is that they won't be able to rally back this quick, especially against a really good San Diago team gunning for their 9th straight W and a division title. Chargers.
Figgs: I see Andy's point, not really sure on this one. Chargers.
Nick: I agree with Andy's points, and I think Cincy's a paper tiger. Bolts.
Bucko: I'm going with the Bungles in a close game.
Gopo: bengals - andy is totally right. this is a stay away game all the way. however, i can't pick against a team that has the emotional drive that the bengals will have for this game.

SHANNON SHARPES (-14) vs Charlie Frye and his Los Angeles Raiders
Andy: Fuck it, I'm backing Chuck and the Silver and Black. I jumped off the Denver bandwagon a while back and don't feel like getting back on, especially not if I have to give 2 TD's. Raiders.
Figgs: Why not, Raiders. Just as long as Frye doesn't get hurt and they have to put in J.P. Losman.
Nick: Raiders. Char-lie! Char-lie!
Bucko: I think Frye is going to have some trouble here, but can keep it within 14. Raiders
Gopo: raiders - no way i'm giving two touchdowns to denver. they are not that good.

SQUEALERS (-1) vs The Pack
Andy: Call me crazy, but I think the Steelers are going to show up for this one. The Packers are better on paper and SHOULD win this, but I think Pittsburgh is going to salvage some pride. The pride they left at Cleveland Browns Stadium last time they visited. You know the weirdest part of this? I don't even feel yucky taking them like I normally do. Steelers.
Figgs: I likewise think the Steelers come back for this one.
Nick: The Steelers are in disarray. Go! Pack! Go!
Bucko: Rodgers is going to light it up. Cheese Heads
Gopo: packers - the steelers are not good. after having watched every game this year, that much is clear.

SHEHAWKS (-6.5) vs Buccos
Andy: Seattle might be my favorite game on the board here. They're not great, but they're 4-2 at home and always a handful in Qwest and the Bucs are AVERAGING a thirteen-point loss this season. Am I missing something here? Seahawks.
Figgs: I like the Hawks at home.
Nick: What Andy said. Seahawks.
Bucko: Seahawks
Gopo: seahawks - at home, those guys are solid. freeman isn't going to be able to handle qwest.

8:20 pm kickoff

CATS (+9) vs Purple People Eaters
Andy: I like this one even less than the TEN-MIA game, in part because of the wishy-washy (-9) line, but in part because Carolina has destroyed me this year - I'm 3-10 picking their games. Let's say...Minny.
Figgs: Eh, Vikes.
Nick: I'm not really comfortable with this one either. Vikes?
Bucko: I need Sydney Rice to play big for my fantasy team. Vikings
Gopo: vikings - don't think deangelo is playing, which is going to hurt carolina.


Monday Night Game
8:30 pm kickoff

NATIVE AMERICANS (+3) vs G-Men
Andy: Giants here almost seems too simple, although I think I trust them more now on reputation than on actual performance. I'm still going NYG, though.
Figgs: Giants.
Nick: Giants. They've just got to beat the Skins by >3, right? ($ -3)
Bucko: Redskins
Gopo: giants - redskins are neither good nor consistent. every one of their games is a tossup for me. since the line is low, i'll go with the better team.

NFL Picks: Week 14

What a disaster. In the past 2 weeks, I'm 2-15 at 1 pm starts, 10-5-1 on other games. Nick picked through the Week 13 minefield to pick up games on everyone - perhaps that will assuage the financial hit he took by going against Cleveland. Bucko will look to improve on his debut, while Gopo joins the fray. Hopefully the Browns win on Thursday night so I can don't owe him a case of PBR again.

Last week
Andy: 5-11
Figgs: 4-12
Nick: 9-7
Bucko: 6-10
Nick's Money Picks ($): 0-1

Year to date
Andy: 101-90-1
Figgs: 92-99-1
Nick: 96-95-1
Bucko: 6-10
Nick's Money Picks ($): 26-24

Thursday game
8:20 pm kickoff

BROWNS (+10) vs Steelers
Andy: Time to hand these idiots their 5th straight L. I'll be there freezing myself for the club - time for them to come through for me. BROWNS.
Figgs: I picked against the Browns the last two weeks, and got burned. Not a chance in hell I pick against them against these faggots. BEER WE GO BROWNIES!!
Nick: Why not? LET'S GO BROWNS!
Bucko: Browns. I don't think they will win, but I believe they will cover.
Gopo: Browns - I was initially thinking that this would be the bounce-back week where Pit took the losing out on a team that's clearly worse than they are, but then I remembed that I've been thinking that for the last three weeks. Pit wins but doesn't cover.


Sunday games
1:00 pm kickoffs

FALCONS (+10.5) vs Saints
Andy: Saints
Figgs: No Ryan, I gotta go Saints.
Nick: It looks like Ryan's out, so why would you ever pick the Birds? Who 'dat?
Bucko: Saints
Gopo: saints - can't see the falcons covering with redman.

BEARS (+3) vs Packers
Andy: Packers
Figgs: I have a lot of faith in the Pack here, the Bears are no good.
Nick: Packers. I have no faith in this pick. There's no way I will ever win money off of this game. ($ -4)
Bucko: Packers
Gopo: packers - the bears suck, and maybe jay cutler isn't all that good either.

BUCS (+3) vs Jets
Andy: Jets
Figgs: I'm not a big fan of the Jets, but this is way too low.
Nick: How can I help my totals and help mathematically eliminate the Steelers and Ravens? By picking the J-E-T-S - JETS JETS JETS!
Bucko: Jets
Gopo: jets - bucs have some fight in them, but the jets should win this easy.

JAGS (-3) vs Dolphins
Andy: Dolphins
Figgs: Toughest one on the slate, Fish?
Nick: If Marty and Doc Brown came back in the Delorean and told me the score, I'd believe just about anything. Is there a tougher team to gauge week-to-week than the Jags? Dolphins, I guess.
Bucko: Jags
Gopo: yags - i think the jags are getting going at the right time.

RAVENS (-13) vs Lions
Andy: Lions
Figgs: This is kind of a toss up, and I hate Baltimore, so Lions.
Nick: I guess I have to hold my nose and pick the Ratbirds.
Bucko: Ravens
Gopo: lions - they'll keep it close (and hopefully win). i'm glad everyone finally stopped sucking off flacco (though he is a delaware product...)

TEXANS (-6) vs Seahawks
Andy: Texans
Figgs: This is too low, Houston.
Nick: Texans. Shouldn't this line be 9 or 10? The Hawks are awful outside of the friendly confines of Qwest Field.
Bucko: Texans
Gopo: texans - i might have considered picking the seahawks here if they were home.

COLTS (-7) vs Broncos
Andy: Colts
Figgs: I made a rule several weeks back to not go against Peyton. Colts.
Nick: Colts. Like the Saints game, can you envision anyone feeling really good about the Donks here? I'll take my chances that an undefeated team can win by >7 at home.
Bucko: Colts
Gopo: colts - though the broncos play some crappy dink and dunk football that could work against the colts d.

CHIEVES (-1) vs Buffaloes
Andy: Chieves
Figgs: First time I pick the Jills all year.
Nick: The Bills are the more talented team, and they've played decent football the last three weeks, including a win over the Fish. On the other hand, the Chiefs have been butchered by San Diego and Denver. Bills.
Bucko: Buffalo
Gopo: buffaloes - i have no idea.

VIKINGS (-6.5) vs Bengals
Andy: Bengals
Figgs: This is definitely too many points. I can see the Vikes winning by a touchdown, but I gotta go Cincy.
Nick: This is too many points, but it's tough for me to envision a scenario in which Cincy wins this. Vikings.
Bucko: Vikings
Gopo: vikings - i don't think the bengals are as good as their record.

PATRIOTS (-13.5) vs Panthers
Andy: Panthers
Figgs: Probably too many, but I'm still going Pats.
Nick: Another tough one, but should the Pats be giving 13.5 to anyone at this point, let alone a team that can run the ball effectively at times? Cats.
Bucko: Patriots
Gopo: panthers - especially with a shaky brady.

4:00 pm kickoffs

RAIDERS (+1) vs Redskins
Andy: Raiders
Figgs: Not really sure on this one, Skins I guess.
Nick: I really like the Raiders in this one. (Wait, I "really like" the Raiders?)
Bucko: Redskins
Gopo: redskins - another set of teams that are total enigmas.


TITANS (-13) vs Rams
Andy: Titans
Figgs: Titans.
Nick: Titans. Here's a big spread that I'm pretty confident can be covered.
Bucko: Titans
Gopo: rams - i don't see the titties running away with this. especially if vince doesn't play.

COWBOYS (-3) vs Chargers
Andy: Chargers
Figgs: Chargers are playing too well to go against them now.
Nick: This really feels like a Chargers trap pick. Too obvious, right? Sooner or later the Cowboys are going to get something going in December, and they need this game more than the Bolts. Cowboys.
Bucko: Chargers
Gopo: chargers - another team that's playing well at the right time.

8:20 pm kickoff
GIANTS (-1) vs Eagles
Andy: Eagles
Figgs: I like both of these teams, and think they will both make the playoffs. In order for that to happen, the Giants need this one.
Nick: Giants. The Eagles make me nervous against good teams in night games.
Bucko: Eagles
Gopo: giants - mostly because the eagles should win this game and whenever i think they're playing well, they shit the bed.

Monday Night Game
8:30 pm kickoff

49ERS (+3.5) vs Cards
Andy: Cards
Figgs: The Niners blow. Cards.
Nick: Cards. This almost feels like a Chargers trap game, except I don't think the 49ers are very good. On a side note, I had a private bet with myself on how long it would take Kurt Warner to thank God during the post game interview last week. It took about 10 seconds. That was longer than I expected. ($)
Bucko: Cards
Gopo: cards - its in the cards (and not in the cards for the 49ers).

NFL Picks: Week 13

Last week wasn't a stellar one for any of our three competitors. Figgs went against the Browns in a rare move and paid for it, Nick talked smack on Thanksgiving and went 1-2, while I managed to go 1-6 in the Sunday early slate. Just when you think you're getting to know the league a bit better...

We also had our first push of the year, thanks to that crazy Tennessee-Arizona ending. As silly as the "Vince Young wins football games" thing has been in the past, it's been nothing but true this year, as the Titans have ascended from 0-6 to 5-6 since inserting him at QB. I wonder why no pushes this year? Too many half-point lines? Big lines from the wide good/bad gap in the league making accurate lines tougher? Maybe it's just a statistical oddity, who knows.

And finally, we have a new member of the team for the rest of the 2009 slate: longtime FCF reader Bucko. We'll see how he fares against our admittedly not-super-strong competition.


Last week
Andy: 7-8-1
Figgs: 7-8-1
Nick: 5-10-1
Nick's Money Picks ($): 2-2

Year to date
Andy: 96-79-1
Figgs: 88-87-1
Nick: 87-88-1
Nick's Money Picks ($): 26-23


Thursday game
8:20 pm kickoff

BUFFALOES (+3) vs Jets (in Toronto)
Andy: Both of these clubs far exceeded my expectations last week; Buffalo by trouncing the Dolphins and New Jersey AFC by handling the Panthers. I'm taking Buffalo here for the first time in a while; I like them in Canada, I think they're playing hard for this interim coach, Ryan Fitzpatrick is coming on strong, and I can't give points to take the J E T S on the road. Buffaloes.
Figgs: Jets, because the Jills burned me last week to the tune of 100 smackers (maybe I should have listened to Andy's "I wouldn't bet this game" comment).
Nick: Jets. Mark Sanchez's QB rating is 62, but oddly ESPN isn't plastering that all over SportCenter. This line should be lower, but Buffalo loses their formidable home field advantage in Toronto. I want to take the Bills strictly on principle, but I look at the Jets' last four games, featuring a win over mediocre Carolina, and respectable losses to three good teams, and I think they'll have enough to beat the Bills by more than three. Jets.
Bucko: I'm going to go with the Jets. I think this will be a battle of the running game. I think Thomas Jones will have a big game against the terrible rushing defense of Buffalo.

Sunday games
1:00 pm kickoffs

FALCONS (+5.5) vs Eagles
Andy: The Battle of the Birds! Philly isn't really all that, and Atlanta is inconsistent, but I'm not willing to give that many for Philly. Falcons.
Figgs: I feel this game will be close either way, so I'll go with the underdogs. ATL.
Nick: Atlanta's QB situation has me a little nervous. Eagles.
Bucko: Atlanta is really beat up right now, and Philly always plays strong near the end of the season. Eagles.

BEARS (-9) vs Rams
Andy: I don't see why the Bears should beat anyone by nine points. Rams.
Figgs: I can't believe I'm picking them, but Bears.
Nick: I'll take the Rams strictly on principle. But if Jacko is out, I might switch.
Bucko: Rams are beat up. I think Bears win by 10 - 13 here. Da Bears

BENGALS (-13) vs Lions
Andy: If the Bengals couldn't beat the Browns by this many points, it isn't logical that they'll beat the Lions by this many. Plus, they really don't score that many points. Yeah, they're 8-3, but it's with solid defense and rushing, not big-play scoreboard-pounding. Detroit.
Figgs: I just can't bring myself to pick the Lions. Cincy.
Nick: I like what Andy said. The Bengals are built to win close games with fundamentals, not to cover big spreads. Lions.
Bucko: Bengals D plays well, and Palmer has a big day. Bengals

REDSKINS (+9.5) vs Saints
Andy: The Saints will win, but they're still floating after demolishing the Patriots and might struggle early, as they've done from time to time. I originally picked Washington, and I kinda wish I was getting 10, but I've really liked this Saint club all year. Why would I not want to take them here? N'awlins.
Figgs: Gotta go Saints here.
Nick: What's the worst case here? Saints by seven? Gimme' New Orleans.
Bucko: Redskins have a solid defensive backfield, but just not enough points here. Saints

PANTHERS (-5.5) vs Bucs
Andy: Fuck the Panthers - they never cover for me. The Bucs, meanwhile, I've been underestimating for awhile. I like this bet.
Figgs: Delhome isn't playing, so that works in their favor. Cats.
Nick: Eh, this feels like a sucker bet, but I'm taking the Cats. As long as Delhomo doesn't throw eleventy billion picks, the Panthers win by at least seven, right?
Bucko: Doesn't look like like Jake is playing. I'll go with the underestimated Bucs.

JAGS (Even) vs Texans
Andy: Texans. Please. Not only do the Jags suck, but Houston has a golden opportunity to return to .500, which they always gravitate to.
Figgs: I don't think either team is very good, but I like Andy's theory of Houston getting back to .500.
Nick: Jags. JAX is tough at home, they're still in the hunt, and I feel like this heartless Houston team is a walking corpse.
Bucko: Jags just don't have anything besides Jones-Drew. Houston in a tight one.

COLTS (-7) vs Titans
Andy: Vince. Young. Wins. Football. Games. These guys might sneak into the playoffs at 9-7. Titans.
Figgs: I gotta stay with VY here. Titans.
Nick: Titans. I'm really rooting for the Titans to pull this run off, and I wouldn't be surprised if they win this game outright.
Bucko: Titans streak ends here. Colts.

CHIEVES (+5) vs Broncos
Andy: Chiefs. The Broncos aren't going to come out as strong as they did last week, and KC is as good a 3-8 team as you'll find.
Figgs: Broncos.
Nick: This line should be seven. Even after last week, Vegas doesn't fully trust the Donks again. I don't trust them either, but I trust them enough to cover against lousy teams. Kansas City qualifies. WHY DON'T YOU JUST GO HOME CHIEFS? YOU CAN'T BEAT DENVER!
Bucko: Broncos

DOLPHINS (+4) vs Pats
Andy: Patriots. I'm kinda over the Fish after they got mauled in Buffalo. Wow, I timed that bandwagon jump badly.
Figgs: I like the Pats by a whole bunch.
Nick: Miami wins this game outright. The Dolphins are a playoff caliber team, but they used
Bucko: Patriots rebound in this one. Hopefully they wear the throwbacks too. Pats

STEELERS (-14.5) vs Raiders
Andy: Pittsburgh at home, in December, fighting for a playoff spot, against a disinterested Raider team, with Big Ugly back in the lineup. I'll roll that.
Figgs: Ugh, Stillers.
Nick: Sadly, I've also gotta go Steelers.
Bucko: Welcome home, Gradkowski. About 0.5 pts too many for me here. Raiders.


4:00 pm kickoffs

BROWNS (+13.5) vs Chargers
Andy: [Tries to envision a scenario under which the Browns allow fewer than 40 points.] I stepped up and bought some Dawg Pound seats for this one. Yeah, we're huge underdogs, and some fans are whiny about the team, and some are even betting against their own team, which is awful, but I'm doubling down and sticking with my team. Browns.
Figgs: Chargers. We really suck.
Nick: Isn't this the lock of the century? Chargers. ($ -13)
Bucko: The Browns sucked before the injuries, so we suck even more. Bolts.

GIANTS (+2.5) vs Cowboys
Andy: Cowboys. It seems clear to me that the Giants suck, though the Cowboys are notoriously bad in December. I don't like this game. At all
Figgs: I'll pick up one on everyone when the Giants take this one.
Nick: I hung on with the Giants for too long, and now there's no way I can trust them against a decent team. 'Boys.
Bucko: Giants running game is hurting, Cowboys

SEAHAWKS (Even) vs 49ers
Andy: 49ers, I guess, who the hell cares?
Figgs: I'm with Andy, who really cares? Niners.
Nick: The classic coin flip game. I feel like the Niners have a little more to fight for. Plus Mike Singletary might pull down his pants.
Bucko: I feel the 49ers have a slight edge here. It's time for Crabtree to have a breakout game.


8:20 pm kickoffs

CARDS (+3) vs Vikings
Andy: Is Warner back for this game? If so, I'm taking him and the points. If not, I'll go with Minny. Bucko, aren't both QB's ageless wonders? Nick, what does "most balanced" mean? The Browns are every bit as balanced - they suck in all facets of the game. Looks like I'm going Cards. The Vikes have had the easiest schedule this side of Penn State so far in 2009, and the Cardinals are making a playoff push.
Figgs: I really like both of these teams, but I'm going with AD and the Vikes.
Nick: The Vikes are rolling. They might be the most balanced team in the league. I'll stick with them on the road and indoors.
Bucko: I'm going with the ageless wonder here. Vikings


Monday Night Game
8:30 pm kickoff

PACKERS (-3) vs Ravens
Andy: Packers. The Ratbirds' playoff push ends right here, right now.
Figgs: I hope I'm wrong, but I'm going ratbirds.
Nick: Lambeau on Monday night in December? What a home field advantage! GO! PACK! GO!
Bucko: I like what Andy and Nick both said. Packers

NFL Picks: Week 12

Last week
Andy: 9-7
Figgs: 9-7
Nick: 7-9
Nick's Money Picks ($): 1-4

Year to date
Andy: 89-71
Figgs: 81-79
Nick: 82-78
Nick's Money Picks ($): 24-21

Thursday games
12:30 pm kickoff
LIONS (+10.5) vs Packers
Andy: Way too many points. The Lions are coming off an energizing win, the Pack didn't cover at home against a suspect 49er team, and Thanksgiving brings out the best in Detroit.
Figgs: Stafford and maybe CJ are out. I like the Pack big here.
Nick: Packers huge. The Pack are getting their act together, and Detroit is even worse than normal without the Staff Infection. Plus, Detroit will be more complacent coming off a win. ($)

4:15 pm kickoff
COWBOYS (-13.5) vs Raiders
Andy: I picked the Cowboys to win giving a lot of points last week and picked the Raiders to lose getting a lot, and got both wrong. I refuse to learn my lesson. Dallas.
Figgs: I think these first two lines should have been switched. This is a tough one for me, but I'll go 'Boys.
Nick: I'll go Raiders here. The Cowboys haven't looked good the last two weeks, and the Raiders seem to be playing harder for B-Grad.

8:20 pm kickoff
BRONCOS (+6.5) vs Giants
Andy: In all my time operating this blog and predicting NFL games and lines, I've never missed a guess worse than I did this one. Broncos.
Figgs: I'm with Nick here, it's time for the G-Men to start getting things together.
Nick: Giants. The book is out on the Broncos, and they're banged up at quarterback. The Broncos have lost by 23, 18, 10, and 29 points respectively in the last 4 weeks. Thanks for letting me back in the game, Francis. ($ -6)


Sunday games
1:00 pm kickoffs
BENGALS (-14) vs Browns
Andy: It's too bad we can't just go play the Lions again - that was fun, for the first 60 minutes anyway. The last zero minutes were not. Browns.
Figgs: Cincy wins this by 20+.
Nick: Browns. If the Browns can score some points again, I think that Cincy wins but doesn't cover.

FALCONS (-11.5) vs Bucs
Andy: I wanted to reflexively take Atlanta here, because after a few inspired weeks, I think Tuberculosis has fallen back to earth. Yet the Falcons haven't done much to inspire confidence in me, losing to Carolina and the Giants. I the end, I'm putting my pick on the Georgia Dome and going ATL.
Figgs: The ATL has not done as well for me this year, but I'll stick with them against a sorry TB team.
Nick: I'm going Atlanta here, too.

BILLS (+3.5) vs Dolphins
Andy: Dolphins, I suppose. I would never bet this game.
Figgs: I would surely bet this game. The Jills blow. Miami.
Nick: I'd bet it too. The Dolphins are a playoff caliber club. ($ -3)

RAMS (+3) vs Seahawks
Andy: The Rams are improving, having covered three consecutive spreads despite their 1-9 mark. The 'Hawks, meanwhile, are 3-7 ATS this year, have only a win over the Lions to their credit in their past five outings, and are quietly becoming one of the league's crummiest teams. I'll take the Rams and the points.
Figgs: I'm not really comfortable taking either of these teams. 'Hawks.
Nick: I might have to check Jackson's status again before kickoff, but I'm going to go Rams here.

JETS (-3) vs Panthers
Andy: Take what I wrote above and make the following substitutions: "Panthers" for "Rams", "three of four" for "three consecutive", "4-6" for "1-9", "Jets" for "'Hawks", "4-6" for "3-7", "Raiders" for "Lions," "seven" for "five", and "Panthers" for "Rams."
Figgs: Didn't that take more effort to do all that than it would have to just write it over? Jets.
Nick: Panthers. The Jets shouldn't be favored in this game.

EAGLES (-9) vs Redskins
Andy: The Redskins have righted their ship somewhat, with a win over Denver and a near-upset of Dallas. However, Philly needs this one, and already toppled the Redskins by 10 in Washington a month ago. I'll take the Eagles.
Figgs: Washington's D looks inspired, but I'm still going Philly here.
Nick: Redskins. The Eagles just haven't put it together like I thought they would.

TEXANS (+3.5) vs Colts
Andy: This was a late line, but it looks like Manning is playing. Nevertheless, I'm going for Houston here.
Figgs: I like this Houston team this year, but why would anyone pick against Peyton? Indy.
Nick: Houston always plays Indy close, and the Colts' secondary is banged up. I'll take the points.

4:00 pm kickoffs
CHARGERS (-13.5) vs Chieves
Andy: As much as I like taking the Chieves this year, and as much as I owe them a debt for knocking off Pittsburgh, I can't take them here. The Chargers are on a serious roll with five straight wins (including a mauling of Denver), and KC won their Super Bowl last week. Bolts.
Figgs: I've been picking with these high lines this year, and it's been working out pretty well for me. But I'm gonna flip the switch here and go KC.
Nick: I've gotta go Chargers here too.

49ERS (-3) vs Jags
Andy: The 49ers have covered twice for me in the past two weeks by a combined 1.5 points. Combine that with my reluctance to ever, ever take Jax on the road, and I'm rolling San Fiasco.
Figgs: Two overrated teams. Garrard is more consistent than whoever SanFran's QB is, and MJD is way more talented than anyone else on the field. Jax.
Nick: The Jaguars are rounding into form, and they'll keep their playoff hopes alive here.

VIKINGS (-10.5) vs Bears
Andy: Come on. Vikings. Why would you want the Bears in this. Seriously, shoot me an e-mail.
Figgs: I'm still mad at Cutler for that Niners game, and I've been mad at Forte all year for sucking in fantasy. Vikes.
Nick: Vikings, although Peterson's status seems to be up in the air. ($ -7)

TITANS (-3) vs Cardinals
Andy: Vince Young wins football games. Titans. While we're here, MNF was a lesson in how close these picks are; Houston's kicker misses a 50-yarder and Tennessee's nails his, and I lose. Flip those late kicks around, I win. That's just how NFL picking goes. Still, the Titties are a fun story - what if they win five or six straight after that awful 0-6 start? I want to see it.
Figgs: Five or six? What if VY pulls off 10 straight and makes the playoffs? I'd love to see it, but wouldn't count on it. Cards.
Nick: Remember earlier this year when I was picking against the Titans until I had a reason not to? Now the opposite applies. Tennessee.

8:20 pm kickoffs
RAVENS (-8) vs Steelers
Andy: Ratbirds.
Figgs: Steelers.
Nick: I couldn't take the Steelers getting fewer than 10. Worthlessberger's out, and almost as important, Polamalu's still out. Tough call, but I'll go Ratbirds.


Monday Night Game
8:30 pm kickoff
SAINTS (-2) vs Patriots
Andy: I don't feel strongly here, but I like the Saints way more than the Patriots and don't mind giving two to a 10-0 team at home on Monday night.
Figgs: Pats, for the sole reason of needing Brady to outplay Brees in fantasy.
Nick: Patriots. The Pats are my pick to win the title right now.

NFL picks: Week 11

Nick picked up a game on me last week by virtue of the Baltimore Ravens.

Nick's Edit: I picked up a game by virtue of any of the number of games on which I beat you.

Last week
Andy: 7-8
Figgs: 4-10
Nick: 8-7
Nick's Money Picks ($): 3-3

Year to date
Andy: 80-64
Figgs: 72-72
Nick: 75-69
Nick's Money Picks ($): 23-17

Thursday game
8:00 pm kickoff
PANTHERS (-3) vs Dolphins
Andy: The Panthers have put themselves back together after a disastrous start and are playing solid football. Couple that with Ronnie Brown's season ending for the Dolphins, and I like Carolina here.
Figgs: Miami contiues to screw me each week. Without Brown, I'll go Cats.
Nick: Nick told me over the phone Monday night that he was taking Carolina. Correct.


Sunday games
1:00 pm kickoffs
LIONS (-3.5) vs Browns
Andy: I said today that I thought the Browns could win this, but I don't know if I really think that. Browns.
Figgs: The Lions probably win this fairly easily, but if there's even a chance we can win a game, I have to pick us, right? Browns.
Nick: Lions. Thanks guys. ($ -4)

COWBOYS (-11) vs Redskins
Andy: I certainly didn't see the Cowboys getting dominated like they did against the Pack last Sunday, and I think Washington surprised a lot of people with their performance last week. I see a lot of mean-regressing here, and a Dallas cover.
Figgs: I see the Skins coming back down to reality here and Dallas covering.
Nick: This feels like a layup Dallas cover. ($ -10)

PACKERS (-6.5) vs 49ers
Andy: This line baffles me. I guessed the Packers (-1)! Thus, I feel compelled to take the 49ers, even though it's unlikely Aaron Rodgers will throw 5 INT's their way like Jay Cutler did last Thursday.
Figgs: This is a little higher than I thought as well, but I'm still going with the Pack.
Nick: I have no faith in the San Francisco offense - they couldn't score more than 10 against the unbelievably bad Bears defense.

CHIEVES (+10) vs Steelers
Andy: KC has been fun for me this year, and I hate the Steelers, so let's roll the Chieves.
Figgs: Steelers.
Nick: Steelers. They're going to be pissed after last week. ($)

GIANTS (-6.5) vs Falcons
Andy: It's the Battle of Teams Who Started Well But Faded Into Mediocrity! I would stick with my guns and take ATL, not necessarily out of loyalty, but more out of I thought I'd only get three with them, but I'm taking a post-bye-week Giant team due for a rebound.
Figgs: Big game for both teams. The Giants probably win, but the line is too high for me. ATL.
Nick: Tough game to pick. I'll take the Falcons because New York's secondary is awful.

BUCS (+11.5) vs Saints
Andy: Saints. The Bucs had their fun the past couple of weeks, and New Orleans has struggled early in a couple of games, but that ends here.
Figgs: I'm with Andy. Saints.
Nick: The Bucs are due for a blowout. Saints.

JAGS (-9) vs Buffaloes
Andy: Who do you think is happier this week: the people at firejauron.com, or the people at firedickjauron.com? Or perhaps the folks at firedickjauron.blogspot.com? I counted roughly 70 Facebook pages recommending Jauron's ouster (including the classy "Dick Jauron Has a Vagina"), which was still fewer than Eric Mangini's (Mangina) total, mostly because Mangini has alienated two fan bases and Jets fans didn't bother to remove their pages. Jacksonville, in front of 9,000 lucky spectators.
Figgs: The Jags are quietly right in the thick of the playoff race, and the Jills are flat out terrible. Jax.
Nick: I don't see myself picking Buffalo much down the stretch. Jags.

RAVENS (+1) vs Colts
Andy: Can I really take a team that played the Browns to a scoreless draw for a half against a 9-0 club? Nope, especially when I absolutely fucking hate said team. Indy.
Figgs: I'd probably take Indy -6.5.
Nick: This line is off by a full touchdown. Go Colts!

VIKINGS (-10.5) vs Seahawks
Andy: I simply do not take Seattle on the road. Minnesota.
Figgs: Vikings.
Nick: Damn, I'm giving alot of points this week. Vikes, also.

4:00 pm kickoffs
RAMS (+9.5) vs Cardinals
Andy: Only 9.5? Arizona.
Figgs: This is too low. The Cards have been a surprisingly great road team this year.
Nick: I mirror those sentiments. Cards. ($)

PATRIOTS (-9.5) vs Jets
Andy: This is one of those games where I feel like maybe I should take the road underdog, but can't necessarily find any legitimate reason to, so I'm not going to. New England.
Figgs: I'll take the Pats by double-digits.
Nick: I love how Rex Ryan gets no shit from the media because he gives them sound bytes. Eric Mangini was a decent coach in NY and they couldn't wait to axe him. Funny stuff. Pats.

RAIDERS (+9.5) vs Bengals
Andy: Only 9.5? Cincy.
Figgs: I don't really see Bruce Gradkowski turning this team around. Bengals.
Nick: The Bengals usually aren't good at covering big numbers, but can you really pick the Raiders if you're getting less than double digits? 'Nati.

BRONCOS (+4.5) vs Chargers
Andy: Subbing in Chris Simms for an injured Kyle Orton actually works against me, because I really wanted to pick against the suddenly-bad Broncos in favor of the suddenly-good Bolts. I'm still taking San Diago, but the points are less favorable than they would be and Simms probably isn't a huge downgrade.
Figgs: Chargers.
Nick: I'm pretty much going Chargers unless it's over 10. Chargers it is - Andy

8:20 pm kickoffs
BEARS (+3) vs Eagles
Andy: Can't back Jay Cutler after last week. Can't. Philly.
Figgs: Jay Cutler cost me a win last week, and I said I wouldn't make that mistake again. Philly.
Nick: The Bears have been a secretly lousy team for most of the season. People are finally acknowledging that, although Vegas apparently doesn't know that yet. Eagles. ($)

Monday Night Game
8:30 pm kickoff
TEXANS (-3) vs Titans
Andy: A slightly better matchup than last week's MNF, no? There are two compelling arguments here in favor of Tennessee: for one, Vince Young wins football games. For two, this game gives the Texans an opportunity to get back to .500 for losing. However, I developed (too late) an appreciation for teams coming off a bye week, which Houston is. Let's hope I'm jumping back off the Titan bandwagon at the right moment. Texans.
Figgs: A couple of weeks ago this looked like it'd be a real dud, but both teams have been playing real well as of late. I like VY to keep winning. Titans.
Nick: I'm going Texans here too. The Bills were tied with the Titans until they imploded in the fourth quarter.