Thursday, October 4

NFL Picks: Week 5

Last Week:
Figgs: 8-7
Joe: 8-7
Nick: 8-7
Figgs' $ Picks: 4-0!
Nick's $ Picks: 1-0

Season to Date:
Joe: 30-30-3
Nick: 29-31-3
Figgs: 20-40-3
Figgs' $ Picks: 6-5*
Nick's $ Picks: 3-5, -1 Schrute Buck

Thursday Night Football, 8:20
RAMS (+2.5) vs. Cardinals
Figgs: Cards. STL hasn't looked bad but this Arz D looks terrific. ($)
Joe: Rams
Nick: Rams

Sunday 1:00 kickoff
GIANTS (-9) vs. Browns
Figgs: NYG. I'll be the first to do it this year. Our games have been much more exciting this year but we're still not very good.
Joe: Browns; We seem to have a recent knack for knocking of defending Super Bowl champions.  We've beaten the Saints, Giants and steelers coming off Lombardi Trophy seasons.  I say we do it again this week. 
Nick: Browns. Wish I could've gotten the opening line of 10, but I'll take it. This feels like the classic "Browns lose close" game.

REDSKINS (+3) vs. Falcons
Figgs: ATL. Of course they don't cover on the week that I come back to them, but I feel like they did that on purpose to spite me for leaving them. Punishment accepted.
Joe: ATL; They seem to be rolling on all cylinders thus far in the season.  Even last week when they appeared to be beaten, they still were able to pull off a victory.  I like them to remain unbeaten after Sunday.
Nick: Falcons. Definitely a possible trap game, but this line should be higher than three. The Redskins don't have much in terms of defense, and the excitement of RG3 is now influencing the line, just as it does with Cam Newton. ($ --- 3 Schrute Bucks)

STEELERS (-3.5) vs. Eagles
Figgs: steelers. I really need to stop picking this guys.
Joe: Eagles; I don't really believe this pick.  pittsburgh is coming off a bye and Philly has won their 3 games by a combined 4 points.  They aren't that good.  However, I have made a pact with myself to pick against the steelers every week, and doing so has gotten me a win 2 out of 3 times so far.  Why not again this week?  Besides, I'm getting more than a FG, so it's not that much of a stretch. 
Nick: Eagles. The extra half point makes all the difference here. This could be a close one, and I'm banking on LeSean McCoy - the league's best running back -  getting loose once or twice.

COLTS (+7) vs. Packers
Figgs: GB. I like the Pack a lot here. Should be over by halftime, hopefully Indy doesn't backdoor cover. ($)
Joe: Packers; I think Green Bay should roll here.  I would pick them if they were giving 3 TDs, so I will gladly give just 1 TD.  Again, if I still bet games, I would lay a ton of dough on this one. 
Nick: Pack. I want to pick the Colts badly, but this just isn't enough points.

BENGALS (-3.5) vs. Dolphins
Figgs: Cinncy. I just realized this week that the chad henne era has been over for a long time so I really have no reason to keep hating on these guys. I guess I'll keep it going because they deserve to suffer for a couple more years for ever making that mistake to begin with. ($)
Joe: Bengals; Dolphins aren't as bad as I thought, but they still aren't good either.  In Miami, I wouldn't give more than a FG, but at home, I'll take the Bengals.  They seem solid enough, and AJ Green seems to get better every week.  Considering how good he already was, that's pretty scary (Thank God he's in our division). 
Nick: Bengals. Joe, it's fortunate for us that Andy Dalton is his quarterback. Dalton is good enough that they won't try to replace him, but not good enough to be transformative. The Bengals won't win the big one unless the rest of their team is superior. ($ -4.5 --- 3 Schrute Bucks)

CHEIFS (+6) vs. Ravens
Figgs: ratbirds. I wouldn't be surprised if KC kept this under six. Pretty much a coin flip game for me.
Joe: KC; This is one of my gut feeling games where there is no conceivable reason to take the dog, but for some reason I feel it.  Baltimore may be a Super Bowl favorite, and they should win this game, but I just feel like the Cheifs keep it close. 
Nick: Ravens. Kansas City is one of the worst teams in the league, and Baltimore will take care of business here. It's weird having to root for Baltimore constantly, as they represent the lesser of two evils. The Browns need to get better. ($ -4.5 --- 3 Schrute Bucks)

(4:25 kickoffs)

VIKINGS (-6) vs. Titans
Figgs: Titans. I like the Vikes to win close but wouldn't be at all shocked if the Titans took it outright.
Joe: Vikings; I bought them for the 1st 3 weeks, then foolishly bailed on them last week.  I don't like giving this many points with this team, but playing at home against a bad team, I can't talk myself out of taking them.
Nick: Titans. Classic "whatever side I pick, I'll pick it wrong" game, so give me the points.

PANTHERS (-3) vs. Seahawks
Figgs: Cats. Seattle's not the same on the road, Panthers need to get their shit together.
Joe: Panthers; I refuse to trust Seattle on the road until they prove they can win one.  Also, I may or may not like Cam Newton. 
Nick: Seahawks. Yeah, Seattle's on the road, but between these two teams, which one can do something well? I'd say that the Seahawks can play solid defense and run the ball. Why do we think that the Panthers can do anything well?

JAGUARS (+5.5) vs. Bears
Figgs: Bears. Cutler wasn't great last week, but the defense was. They will eat Gabbert alive. ($)
Joe: Bears; Chicago looked great on Monday Night last week, despite Kristen Cavalleri's boyfriend still showing he has the maturity of an 8 year old.  I like the Bears' D, their running game, and they now have solid wideouts.  I don't like much of anything about Jacksonville. 
Nick: Jags. Maybe I'm talking myself into this one, but the Jags can be a tough out at home, and I could see the Bears coming out flat after a huge win on Monday night.

PATRIOTS (-6.5) vs. Broncos
Figgs: Broncos. The renewal of the classing Brady-Manning rivalry. Since one of those guys went to a regular school and one is gay, I always go with Peyton.
Joe: Broncos; Pats looked like the Pats last week, scoring at will in the 2nd half.  But Buffalo's defense also gave up 48 pts to the pitiful Mark Sanchez this year, so that may not be the best game to judge New England on.  Denver looked great last week as well.  Basically, Manning vs. Brady:  I don't feel like giving either one of these QBs 6.5 points, so I'll take the Broncos as dogs here.
Nick: Patriots. So why do we think that the Broncos are good? They're going on the road, Peyton Manning can't throw deep, and the Pats just dropped 45 on this defense last January.

49ERS (-10) vs. Bills
Figgs: Niners. This could look a lot like last week's beatdown of the Jets.
Joe: 49ers; San Fran is possibly the best team in the NFL.  Buffalo is not good.  They may play them slightly closer than the Jets did, but probably not by much.  Niners.  Big.
Nick: Niners. I hate giving double-digits, but the Niners are smart enough to take the run away and dare Fitzy to throw deep (which he can't).

Sunday Night Football
SAINTS (-3.5) vs. Chargers
Figgs: Saints. Brees will break the record on the first drive, then not slow down.
Joe: Saints; I've been right about the Saints so far, but they will still win a fair amount of games.  This week is one of them.  I have no real feel for the Bolts yet.  3 wins against teams they should have beat (which they usually didnt do in the past) but a blowout loss vs. their only tough opponent.  Primetime in the dome with Brees going for the record, I like the Saints, possibly in blowout fashion.
Nick: Chargers. Another game I might be talking myself into, but the Chargers are 3-1 and have a solid offense. I know that San Diego's three victories are against lousy teams, but the Saints have yielded an average of 32.5 points per game...doesn't that make them closer to lousy team than a good one?

Monday Night Football
JETS (+8) vs. Texans
Figgs: Texans. Boy are the Jets a mess.
Joe: Texans; Again, Houston is giving a lot of points.  Again, I feel very comfortable giving those points.  No Revis or Holmes.  After last year, I don't think the Texans will feel sorry for any team that has key injuries.  I think ESPN will have to spend most of the game talking about Tebow, because Houston will put it out reach well before halftime.
Nick: Texans. As much as I want to take an eight-point home doggy on Monday night, the Texans might be the best team in the league and are winning games by an average margin of 17.5 points.

Other Bets
Nick: Parlay Ravens, Niners, Patriots to win ($4 Schrute Bucks)


Andy said...

Joe, fyi, I was at those games where they defeated the defending champion steelers and Giants (on MNF), my two best memories from Browns stadium.

While I'm here, I've managed to attend six wins at CBS; those two fantastic ones, two so-so ones over Carolina (2010) and Jacksonville (2011), plus my debut at the Stadium in an orange-jersey rout of the Texans (2002), and a nice win over Chicago (2005) where Antonio Bryant caught two TDs and hit butt fell out of his pants.

Also, Figgs, it's not too late to switch your pick - the Giants are a great road team but a shaky home team (look it up), and the Browns have been in every game this season.

Andy said...

Also, I find the haterade that Figgs manages to sprinkle throughout these picks to be delightful.

Joe Figgs said...

Nick, in regards to your comment on the Redskin game, we all know that the only reason the Skins don't have much excitement on defense is because All Pro Linebacker Brian Orakpo is still out with an injury. (No word yet if he is still able to show up for the pancake socials or not though).