Saturday, September 24

NFL Picks: Week 3

Last Week
Joe: 7-7-2
Nick: 7-7-2
Figgs: 4-10-2

Figgs' $ Picks: 0-1-1
Nick's $ Picks: 4-0-2

Current Standings
Nick: 16-12-3
Joe: 15-13-3
Figgs: 12-16-3

Figgs' $ Picks: 0-3-1
Nick's $ Picks: 5-1-3

Sunday games

BROWNS (+1.5) vs Dolphins
Figgs: Browns. I'm clearly going to pick them every week regardless of oponent or line, but I think they can cover this. Mainly because chad henne is a bitch.
Joe: Browns; I'll probably get Browns games wrong all year. I have a terrible feeling about this one. Miami is much better on the road then at home. But I'm going with my heart here....I guess.
Nick: Browns. That half point is significant.
Note: The Hillis injury swung this to +1.5 at game time.

BENGALS (-2.5) vs 49ers
Figgs: Niners. I'll think about laying some dough on this one if my college games go well.
Joe: 49ers; They are a better team.
Nick: Bengals. SF isn't good, and the Bengals are surprisingly decent.

BILLS (+9) vs Patriots
Figgs: Bills. They're at home and have impressed me thus far. Pats shouldn't have a problem winning this, but it could be close.
Joe: Bills; Nine seems way too high for the Bills at home. Their offense is putting up huge numbers and the Patrionts D is giving up huge numbers (422 yards passing to Chad Henne! Really? Really?) If they don't get the outright win, I at least look for Buffalo to keep it close.
Nick: Bills. Serious backdoor cover potential.

SAINTS (-4) vs Texans
Figgs: Saints. In the Dome and Foster is banged up? I'd be willing to lay 8 or 9 here. ($)
Joe: Saints; Just as I predicted, the Saints rebounded nicely last week against a good team at home. I look for them to keep it rolling this week in what should be a shootout.
Nick: Saints. Houston has to prove they can beat a good team on the road.

EAGLES (-9) vs Giants
Figgs: Giants. Vick will play but I'm not sure how healthy he really is. If he gets knocked out of the game again the Giants could steal one.
Joe: Eagles; Even with a banged up Vick, I like their chances. I could see a 27-17 type game here, so I'll reluctantly give the big spread.
Nick: Giants. This is two points too high.

TITANS (-6.5) over Broncos
Figgs: Broncos. I have no clue on Tennessee. I just feel this is slightly high.
Joe: Titans; I have been dead wrong on the Titans in both weeks so far and I don't know which team is going to show up. But if they play half as good as they did against Baltimore, then they should beat a weaksauce Denver team by a touchdown at home.
Nick: Titans. Denver is a mess.

VIKINGS (+3.5) vs Lions
Figgs: Vikings. I went against the Lions last week and they made me look like a fool. If it happens twice in a row I'll start picking them.
Joe: Lions; It must be bizarro world to have a Detroit team as road favorites, but alas they are. And I'm rolling with them again. Suh and company should be able to contain Peterson enough, and the Stafford to Megatron combo looks like a modern day Young to Rice.
Nick: Lions. This line should be 6. ($ Lions straight up)

PANTHERS (-3.5) vs Jaguars
Figgs: Panthers. No confidence in this pick at all.
Joe: Panthers; I love Cam Newton and I don't care if the whole world knows it! I just want to shout it from the rooftops!
Nick: Panthers. The half point spooks me, but Carolina can score. ($ -3)

CHARGERS (-15) vs Chiefs
Figgs: Chargers. KC looks awfully bad.
Joe: Bolts; Should be a no brainer, but San Diego has a tendency to completely whiff in mismatches like this. However, KC looks like they're already tanking games in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. If they've actually been trying, then they should be embarrassed.
Nick: KC is the worst team in football.

RAIDERS (+3.5) vs Jets
Figgs: Jets. This is probably the most I could like a pick without actually betting it.
Joe: Raiders; Jets are banged up on the O-line. Offensively, Oakland's strength is running the ball, so they won't be testing the Jets' secondary as much as Ryan would like.
Nick: Raiders. Jets feel like sucker pick of the week.

RAMS (+4) vs Ravens
Figgs: Ravens. Baltimore screwed my teaser last week. I think they really come after Bradford and bounce back here.
Joe: Ravens; See my Titans comment.
Nick: Ravens I guess, but more of a vote of no confidence in the Rams.

BUCS (-1.5) vs Falcons
Figgs: ATL. I actually picked against them last week, and they win. Sorry guys, I won't let it happen again.
Joe: Bucs; Not sure why, just a gut feeling. Atlanta is a Michael Vick non injury away from being 0-2. I don't think they are as good as last year and I think Tampa needs this game at home to make a statement that they be taken seriously.
Nick: Bucs. ATL has to convince me they don't suck. Philly outplayed them last week.

SEAHAWKS (+3.5) vs Cardinals
Figgs: Cards. I went back and forth here several times. I guess it comes down to me having zero faith in Tavaris Jackson.
Joe: Cardinals; See my Chiefs comment, and that sums up Seattle's performance through 2 weeks.
Nick: Cards, in the game I'd never bet.

BEARS (+3.5) vs Packers
Figgs: Packers. Aaron Rodgers is the best player in football.
Joe: Bears; I just have a feeling they might pull the upset. If not, I think they keep it close enough to take those points. I see like a 20-17, or 24-21 type game.
Nick: Pack. GB is loaded, and the Bears are mediocre. ($)

COLTS (+10.5) vs shitsburgh
Figgs: Steelers. I hate picking them, but I just don't see Indy keeping this close.
Joe: Steelers; I doubt the Colts will score in this one. Maybe a field goal or two, but I will pretty much guarantee they don't get in the endzone. If I'm right, then Pittsburgh will only need 17 points or so to cover this spread. (If I bet $$ on games, this would be my lock of the week).
Nick: Steelers. Colts can't score. ($ -9)

Monday Night Football

COWBOYS (-4) vs Redskins
Figgs: Dallas. Not sure about Washington right now. Not real confident in this pick but with Homo starting I'll go with the Boys.
Joe: Cowpokes; I would be extemely confident without the injuries, but I still like them here. Each week Grossman is silencing his critics, but I'm waiting for the 4 INT type implosion I know he has in him. I think it might happen with the whole nation watching him this week.
Nick: Skins. Just too many injuries for the Boys.

Figgs teaser: Atlanta (+8.5)/Green Bay (+3.5)/NY Jets (+3.5)
Nick's parlay: Tennessee, San Diego, & Pittsburgh to win

1 comment:

Andy said...

I'm actually enjoying my outsider's perspective of this competition this year. A few thoughts:

1) This is great for anyone who wonders if Nick thinks the lines are mis-set. Nick, that's the point of this - if you have an opinion that differs from the line, then you grab that arbitrage! You can say the line "should be" whatever, but they're almost always right where they should be - the place where Vegas gets even money. Don't look gift horses in their mouths.

2) If Nick picks an underdog, ride it. He doesn't do it enought (only 5 out of 16 this weekend) but he's got an eye for them (4-0 so far). Not to late to put some loot on the 'Skins.

3) The opposite of this precept is to always go against Nick when he's supremely confident or calls one of the teams a "mess." I swear, shaky teams must put his comments on their bulletin board or something.

4) You all should definitely take the W for the Browns using the +1.5 line even though most of you (except maybe Last-Minute Allburn) took them at -2.5. Supporting the Browns should be rewarded here at FCF.

5) Joe, what do I get for the Colts busting your no-end zone guarantee? :)