NFL Picks: Week 5

Um...that wasn't very good. Last week's NFL slate must have been particularly tricky, because all of us would statistically have been at least as well-off had we flipped coins instead of applying our powers of analysis. Figgs still managed to pick up a game on Gopo and I, tying me just one game back of our West Coast friend. In other news, I hope Nick isn't putting too much money on these games. Fun fact: only two NFL teams remain unbeaten ATS so far in 2010: Detroit and Kansas City.

Last Week
Andy: 6-8
Figgs: 7-7
Nick: 6-8
Bucko: 5-9
Gopo: 6-8
Nick's Money Picks ($): 1-3
Figgs' Money Picks ($): 2-1

Standings
Gopo: 32-27-3
Andy: 31-28-3
Figgs: 31-28-3
Nick: 28-31-3
Bucko: 26-33-3

Nick's Money Picks ($): 5-9-1
Figgs' Money Picks ($): 8-4-1


Byes: Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks

Sunday games
1 pm kickoff

BROWNS (+3) vs Falcons
Andy: BROWNS. The line hasn't even been set and it's Monday, and I'm taking us anyway. Fast-forward to Thursday; I'm a bit surprised we weren't getting an extra half- or full-point, but who cares? I am slightly annoyed that Seneca Wallace won't be calling the signals for the Brownies, but we'll win anyway. Also, Figgs, what on Earth is your weird love of Atlanta? You like them almost as you like the Kansas City Chieves. I looked through the archives and discovered that you've picked them 27 out of 37 times. Three of the times you went against them was against the Saints. What's my point? Go Browns, is my point.
Figgs: :cough: Falcons :cough:
Nick: Browns. Can't do it.
Bucko: Falcons. Sorry Andy, I need more than 3pts.
Gopo: Falcons. I'm trying to get through these picks before I get out of town for the weekend, so don't expect too much analysis. I'll start that by saying: not nearly enough points.

BUFFALOES (+1) vs Jags
Andy: Buffaloes. I really need to stop picking this team, but I can't for some reason. They're plucky. Last week was Jax's season as far as I'm concerned, and Buffalo is going to bring it extra to get that first W.
Figgs: Jax. I won't be picking against the Jills for my Eliminator poll for the first time all year, because I'm only about 80% confident they will lose.
Nick: Billskis. I've been riding hard against the Bills this year, but I think they get it together for one week. The Jagoffs will have a letdown after last week's win, and Buffalo's stadium is shitty, drunk, and loud.
Bucko: Jags. Buffalo has new QB and traded their RB, and Jags are coming off a big win.
Gopo: Jags. I think Jacksonville has found their identity a bit - add that to the fact that I think the Bills might be the worst team in the league, and well...

BENGALS (-6.5) vs Bucs
Andy: Bengals. Bounce-back game after Cleveland at home against an eminently beatable Tampa club.
Figgs: Cincy. This is my Eliminator pick this week. Definitely a bounce-back game at home.
Nick: Cincy. Carson looked sharp last week, and the Bucs are a complete illusion. The Bengals really need this game heading into the bye. ($)
Bucko: Bengals. Their defense is still good and I think the offense will put something together.
Gopo: Bucs. I will continue thinking the Bengals aren't very good at playing football.

LIONS (-3) vs Rams
Andy: Rams. They've been quite competitive this year, and I think it'll culminate in Bradford's first road win.
Figgs: Rams. I went back-and-forth with this one. I'll take the Rams, but don't really have any reason to support that.
Nick: Rams. So Vegas thinks these teams are even? The Rams are kinda/sorta good, and have won the last two games by double digits. I can't believe it, but this is my favorite game on the board. ($)
Bucko: Lions. This one could change later depending on injuries.
Gopo: Rams. Really tough game to pick. Without looking at the rest of the matchups, I'm declaring this the toughest game to pick this week. I'm all about the momentum train in my picks this week and the Rams have it.

COLTS (-8) vs Chieves
Andy: Colts. The Chieves have been punching above their weight all year; this is where it comes crashing down against a Colt team whose veteran pride must have been wounded by last week's debacle in Florida.
Figgs: Colts. I originally thought this was too high, but I just see far more scenarios where the Colts win by multiple touchdowns than KC keeping it close.
Nick: Chiefs. Just keep banging away with Jones and Charles. That Indy D is Downy soft.
Bucko: Chiefs. I think the Colts will win, but this is just a little too high for me.
Gopo: Chiefs. See previous comment regarding momentum train. Also, maybe the Colts aren't as good as we think.

REDSKINS (+2.5) vs Packers
Andy: Packers. Hey, I finally got a Washington game right last week! Time to pick against them. If the Packers are the Super Bowl team people think they are, they will not lose this after two straight shaky weeks.
Figgs: Packers. Good for McNabb for getting that win last week, now it's time for the Skins to come back and face the reality that they're not very good.
Nick: Pack. Green Bay is very solid, and this will be a hangover game for the Skins, who got some nice breaks with injuries in Philly last week. I've been talked out of betting this because the Packers have some injury/defensive issues, but they're still the better team, right?
Bucko: Packers. I don't think the Redskins offense will be able to keep up with Rodgers.
Gopo: Packers. I have no idea why this line is so low. The Packers have been super inconsistent, but I have no faith in the Redskins.

PANTHERS (+1.5) vs Bears
Andy: Panthers. They should have some renewed confidence after playing New Orleans tough on the road last week, and the Bears are starting Todd Collins, who is 47 years old. Have fun behind that Bear offensive line.
Figgs: Bears. I originally put a star next to this game when I first saw the lines on Tuesday as a possible money game, then realized that Collins would be starting. I still think the Bears D can do enough to get the win, but I'm not very confident.
Nick: Panthers. You know that whatever side you pick in this game, you'll be wrong.
Bucko: Bears. Their D is playing really well.
Gopo: Panthers. Todd Collins is starting. I believe people are aware of this, but still. Worth repeating: Todd Collins is starting.

RAVENS (-7) vs Broncos
Andy: Ravens. Annoyingly, Baltimore is possibly the class of the AFC, and by "class" I mean "team with the most murderers who plays well and whom Bucko adores and probably has a Terrell Suggs jhirt." By the way, I was in Baltimore last week, and all their purple garbage strewn about the city is completely and utterly disgusting, except for the "Raytorious" sign we affixed to my friend Ray's back. Also, Baltimorons have nicknamed Joe Flacco "Cool Joe," which...I can't even go on. Too much stupid.
Figgs: Ravens. I was not in Baltimore last week, but still back everything that Andy just said.
Nick: Rats. I could see Denver beating the number, but a cover seems more likely.
Bucko: Ravens. That's right Andy. The Broncos have no running game, and I look for Orton to make a couple of mistakes.
Gopo: Broncos. I hate the Ravens and I still don't think they are that good. The fact that this is a home game for the Ravens makes the line a little more realistic, but you know what? Fuck those guys.

TEXANS (-3) vs Giants
Andy: Giants. The Texans have the worst defense in the NFL, yardage-wise, making me think they might be a bit house-of-cardsy. This is a risky pick, but the G-Men can pressure QB's and should be able to score on Houston.
Figgs: Texans. I've been right on picking Houston games this year, as the only time I went against them was against Dallas. This one will be tough, but I like them at home.
Nick: Giants. Too many injuries/DNPs on that Houston offense, and the Giants will move the ball against that D. I'll take the points.
Bucko: Giants. No reason just a gut feeling
Gopo: Giants. I think the Texans are really hurting without their left tackle. Andre Johnson's injury is just making things worse because Schaub can't throw it up for grabs anymore. Momentum pick.

4 pm kickoff

CARDINALS (+6.5) vs Saints
Andy: Saints. Fuck the Cardinals, I tried to take them once and San Diago is STILL scoring points on them. How did they get so bad in two years?
Figgs: Saints. I'll tell you how they got so bad in two years...K. Warner > D. Anderson. There isn't an alligator mouth in the world that can show by how much.
Nick: Saints. The Cards are truly awful.
Bucko: Saints. I think I could QB a team and beat the cardinals.
Gopo: Saints. I don't know how the Cards have even won two games. They might be one of the 3 worst teams in the league.

COWBOYS (-6.5) vs Titans
Andy: Tit-ans. Pfft, I'm not giving this many points to take an inconsistent Dallas club.
Figgs: Titans. Cowboys probably win this, but that line is just too high for me. Nick: Titans. Could totally see Fisher's boys pulling off an upset here.
Bucko: Cowboys. I think last week's bye helps them out here. The should be able to keep Johnson in check.
Gopo: Cowboys. They have too much talent on offense to continue being inept there. Two strong wins in a row for the Cowboys? I think so.

RAIDERS (+6) vs Chargers
Andy: Chargers. I like taking the Raiders, but I'm making a Saturday-afternoon edit and going with San Diago, who's shown that they can pummel shaky teams at home.
Figgs: Chargers. I just don't see Bruce Gradkowski keeping this up. ($)
Nick: Chargers. Isn't this the time of year when the Chargers go on their mini-run? Plus McFadden is out, and he's been very effective for Oakland this season. ($)
Bucko: Raiders. They should be able to keep the Chargers passing game in check.
Gopo: Chargers. I think the Chargers are finding their offensive game. I can see this being another 41 to 23 win.

Sunday Night Football, 8 pm

49ERS (-3.5) vs Eagles
Andy: 49ers. They're desperate for a W, playing a night game at home against the probably-Vickless Eagles...I absolutely hate this line. No outcome would surprise me here.
Figgs: Philly. I have this line at Eagles +3. Vick or not, I don't see the Niners winning this game. ($)
Nick: Niners. San Fran really needs a win, and the Eagles have a lot of moving parts right now.
Bucko: 49ERS. Unless vick is playing.
Gopo: 49ers. If Vick was playing, I'd take the Eagles with this line, but not with Kevin Kolb. Though being away will probably help him here.

Monday Night Football, 8 pm

JETS (-4) vs Vikings
Andy: Jets. I've been undervaluing them all season and I don't think Minnesota is particularly good. I also think Braylon Edwards is one of the top douches in all of the NFL, for what that's worth.
Figgs: Vikings. I'm going against myself on this one, as I had the line Jets -6.5, but I just have a feeling Favre has something up his sleeve.
Nick: Jets. We definitely all undervalued them after that opening clunker on Monday night.
Bucko: JETS. The Viking offense is a mess. Maybe this would be different if Moss had been there sooner.
Gopo: Vikings. No basis at all, just the first thing that popped into my head. I also don't like the Jets, so that helps. Those two things might be related.