Thursday, September 24

Go for it!

I'd like to highlight this fascinating piece of research from Advanced Football Stats regarding 4th down decision-making. Outstanding work.

The message is clear: coaches don't attempt 4th down conversions nearly enough. The reasoning is equally clear: they're motivated by risk aversion and job insecurity. These things are well-known, but this author does a terrific job of marshaling the numbers to explain them neatly and powerfully.

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