Tribe things

Wow, check out "ball" 3 (pitch #6) from the mlb.com Gameday from Wednesday's Tribe game. It's not just a strike - it's a strike that lies about halfway within the very center sub-square of the strike zone. No wonder Hamilton was so incredulous about it.

- Hamilton also made a point about how most closers don't have a very good move to first base and can be run upon. I think he's right, but does this make any sense? How hard is it to develop a decent throw over to first? I'm going to go ahead and say: not that hard. It takes so much natural ability to be a closer, especially a great arm and nerves of steel. Seems like you'd want to complement those rare attributes with a fairly commonplace way to prevent every guy who reaches first from strolling down to second.

- Ezequiel Carrera doesn't need to play winter ball to improve his game so much as he needs to spend a few hours a day with a baseball tutor. The guy has some skills, slotting in as a good option for a fourth OF, but he's made an astounding number of mental mistakes in his short time with the Tribe. He's been picked off at least five times that I remember counting (in just 45 times on base), got caught between second and third for no apparent reason the other day, lost a key game for us by losing a ball in the sun with his sunglasses resting upon his hat, takes weird routes to the ball, thinks he can bunt because he did one time and it worked...the man just needs some basic instruction in how to play smart baseball. I mean, he's on-basing .338, so he's not without value, but he has much to learn.

- Who's your Indians MVP? If the season ended today, I think I'd take Justin Masterson. He leads the club in WAR at 4.2, so I could end the argument there, but there's more. He's been the anchor in the rotation all season long (Josh Tomlin has been good too, but not at Masterson's level) despite a dearth of run support that could have been really deflating. He's 4th among AL starters in ERA and 7th in WAR among pitchers, in large part because he allows a league-best .288 home runs per nine innings, a figure 40% lower than second-place Doug Fister.

A couple of weeks ago, Asdrubal Cabrera would have been my frontrunner here, but Cabrera's production has dropped off as the season has progressed. His OPS has dipped to just .750 in August - still solid production, but not the .830 level he posted before that. Cabrera does a lot for this team, appearing tonight in his 133rd game, and he's been their best position player, but as of now I'm taking Masterson.

Buckeye Season Preview Part II

It’s hard to believe the Buckeyes will kickoff the season in just a mere 72 hours. Before I get into the defense, there have been a few developments on the offensive side of the ball since my last post. As expected, Joe Bauserman has been named the starting QB for this weekend’s game vs. Akron. Coach Luke Fickell said that the competition is still open and expect to see a lot of Braxton Miller against the Zips as well. I called that one. Also, Jaamal Berry tweaked a hamstring and will be held out of the opener. This is not good news for a unit already missing Boom Herron, but it doesn’t sound too serious and Berry should be ready by Week 2. Jordan Hall-Carlos Hyde-Rod Smith will be the RB rotation this weekend. Lastly, redshirt freshman Verlon Reed will get the surprise nod at the starting receiver spot opposite Corey Brown, who we’re apparently calling “Philly” this season to avoid confusion with Corey Brown the defensive back. Now that we got that out of the way, let’s get on with the preview.

The Defense
The 2010 Ohio St defense ranked first in the Big Ten and in the top ten in the NCAA in the following categories: points, rushing yards, passing yards, total yards, turnovers. They were pretty good. Unfortunately, starters Cameron Heyward, Dexter Larimore, Brian Rolle, Ross Homan, Chimdi Chekwa, Devon Torrence, and Jermale Hines are all no longer with us. Each year it seems I’m talking about the talent OSU lost on defense and how it seems an impossible task to not have a huge dropoff in production, but each year there seems to be a new group of emerging stars that keep this unit near the top in the country. As the saying goes in Columbus, they don’t rebuild, they reload. Let’s look at the players the Buckeyes will be reloading with this season.

Cameron Heyward was a beast, and will certainly be missed, but the defensive line will be the strength of the defense and should be one of the best units in the conference. Leading the way will be returning starters and All-Big Ten hopefuls Nathan Williams and John Simon. DE Williams led the team in sacks last season, and should be poised for a monster senior season. Simon can create matchup problems with his ability to line up at end or tackle, but should see most of his snaps in the middle. Alongside Simon will be sophomore Jonathan Hankins, who played some last year but struggled with his weight, which hovered around 350 lbs. He’s now down to a slim 325. Garrett Goebel looks to be the front-runner to replace Heyward at end, with Adam Bellamy and Melvin Fellows pushing him. If these guys don’t impress in the first few weeks, Solomon Thomas will get a shot when he returns from his five-game suspension.

Ohio St rolls out All-American caliber linebackers year after year, so even though this group doesn’t have a ton of experience, I’m confident they can be very effective. Also, they have the coolest names of any position on the team. Andrew Sweat is the lone returning starter, and will be the leader of the unit. He started mostly on the strong side last year, but should move to the weak side this season to be more in space. Etienne Sabino and Storm Klein will take over the other two starting roles, with Sabino most likely in the middle and Klein on the strong side, although they could switch. Sabino was a special teamer extraordinaire and saw limited action at linebacker in ‘09 before being redshirted last season. He broke his hand this off-season but will be ready for the opener, playing with a cast on. Klein was beaten out by Sweat for a starting gig last year, but seems primed to be a tackling machine opposite Sweat this year. The ‘backers will be a little thin with Jonathan Newsome transferring and Dorian Bell being suspended for the whole year. With those two no longer in the mix, Jordan Whiting and Tony Jackson will be the top reserves. Tyler Moeller will attempt to make another comeback, and should play safety, but may see some time at LB if he is needed.

The secondary is certainly filled with the most question marks on the team. Chekwa, Hines and Torrence made up one of the best defensive backfields in the nation last year, and will be borderline impossible to replace. The good news is there is a lot of promise in the current secondary, but there are also some injury concerns. Travis Howard and Dominic Clarke will take over the corner spots. Howard showed positive signs at the beginning of last season, but spent the majority of the year on the bench with a shoulder injury. He expects to be back at full strength, and looks to be the playmaker of the DBs. Clarke played well on special teams as a freshman in ’10, and comes into this season as the top cover corner. Dionte Allen and Corey Brown will be the first to get in in nickel and dime situations.

Orhian Johnson will return to start at safety and has the most talent of the group, but must stay healthy and come up with more big plays. The most interesting story line of the secondary revolves around Tyler Moeller. Moeller played at linebacker back in 2008, then missed all of the 2009 season after being violently jumped in the offseason and suffering a serious head injury, one that doctors said may prevent him from ever playing football again. Against the odds, Moeller was ready to play the following season and was moved to safety, where he was incredible in the first four games before suffering a torn pectoral muscle that sidelined him for the remainder of the season. Finally catching a break, Moeller was granted a sixth year of eligibility for this season and the starting strong safety spot should be his, provided he can stay healthy. If he cannot, Johnson would most likely switch to strong and C.J. Barnett, who is returning from an injury himself, would take over at free safety. Barnett beat out Johnson for the starting FS spot last season but injured his knee in game one and missed the entire season.

The Buckeye special teams offer two completely opposite ends of the spectrum when they are kicking and when they are receiving. When OSU is on the receiving end, look out. Jordan Hall and Jaamal Berry averaged 27.9 and 25.4 yards per kick return, respectively, last season. Hall also averaged a respectable 9.9 yards per punt return. Hall should get the majority of the work, but both he and Berry can break off a big one at any given time.

On the other hand, I could not be more worried about the kicking game. Super-reliable Devin Barclay is gone, with Drew Basil taking over placekicking duties. Basil has a massive leg, but needs to prove he can connect on mid-range field goals on a consistent basis. Don’t even get me started on punter Ben Buchanan. I don’t think I’ve ever disliked a Buckeye more, except for maybe Jon Thoma, the punter he replaced. Then of course there’s the issue of covering kicks. Ohio St gave up two scores on kick returns and one on a punt, while allowing a miserable 10.5 yards per punt return. This needs to be fixed.


The Schedule
Ohio St opens the season welcoming two Ohio schools to The Shoe to get obliterated. Akron comes first (three more days!) followed by Toledo. September 17 provides the Bucks with their first test, at Miami. The Hurricanes are in the midst of a scandal of their own, and three of their players will be suspended for this contest. QB Jacory Harris and four others will have served their one-game suspensions. Going to Miami without Boom Herron, DeVier Posey, and Mike Adams has me slightly worried, but Ohio St should still be able to pull this one out. Colorado then comes to Columbus to close out non-conference play. Don’t let the fact the Buffaloes are in the Big 12 scare you - Toledo is a much more formidable opponent.

Big Ten play begins with two of the year’s toughest tests. Michigan St visits Ohio Stadium on October 1 in the final game of suspensions for the “Tat 5.” The Spartans return QB Kirk Cousins and RBs Edwin Baker and Le’Von Bell to form one of the conference’s best offenses. The Buckeyes will welcome back Herron, Posey and Adams the following week. Their coming-home gift? A trip to Memorial Stadium, home to an ongoing record of 311 consecutive sellouts and #10 ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers. The returning players will have no time to adjust and be asked to carry this team to an upset victory in a hostile environment.

A visit to Illinois is up next. Nathan Scheelhaase is one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the Big Ten, but the Illini don’t have much else. October 29 will be another tough game at home against Wisconsin. RBs Montee Ball and James White could each be All-Americans if they played on separate teams, making up the nation’s best backfield. The Badgers have a tough schedule coming into this contest including games against Oregon St, Nebraska, and at Michigan St, but could be undefeated when they visit The Shoe, providing a chance for the Buckeyes to pay them back for last season.

Ohio St should be able to breathe easy the next two weeks, facing Indiana at home and going to Purdue. Penn St comes to Columbus November 19 before Ohio St closes out the regular season in michigan. New head man Brady Hoke seems to have people in Ann Arbor thinking they are back, but I’m not sold yet. Can’t-Tie was in the absolute perfect situation in a Rich Rodriguez offense, and he still couldn’t be successful. I’m supposed to believe he’s going to be All-Big Ten in a dropback-style offense? Pass. (Which, along with tying his shoes, is something else Can‘t-Tie can’t do.) If the Buckeyes can take the conference’s Leaders Division (Wisconsin being the only real threat with Penn St having an outside chance), they will most likely have a rematch with Nebraska to determine the Big Ten Champ.


The Outlook
With the conference’s addition of Nebraska, the suspensions to star players, and the graduation of most of a devastating defense, this will certainly be the toughest of the past seven seasons for the Buckeyes to grab another Big Ten title. While this does look like a down year for the program, a down year at Ohio St is a hell of a year for most schools. Looking at the schedule, I definitely don’t see any more than four losses there. Realistically, I could see the Bucks posting a 4-1 mark during the suspensions, splitting with Nebraska and Wisconsin, winning the rest of their games and finishing 10-2 with a possible shot at a conference championship game.

I think I’ve said all I could possibly say about this team without even seeing them on the field yet. All we can do now is put our faith in Luke Fickell and cheer our asses of for another season of Buckeye football (and make as many michigan jokes as possible).


GET EM

Wolverine's

I thought Id break up Figg's article's on the Buckeye's to show reader's this fine piece of sport's apparel designed for fan's of the michigan wolverine's. Lets go indeed! Its one of the more excellent um t-shirt's I've seen in some time, even besting those super-awesome "big house" thing's some of your cooler michigan fan's ware.

Of course, if you actually bought this t-shirt, the missing apostrophe should be the least of your concerns, especially because none of your co-fans will likely have the acumen to call you out on it. The fact that you actually like michigan "football" is a far more serious and systematic problem that you need to address, probably sooner rather than later.

But until then, by all means, enjoy the shirt, and Beat Ohio! Because we know the state of Ohio only has one FBS football program. OK, fine, it actually has eight. But only the Buckeyes have beaten you guys in recent seasons.

Except that one other team in 2008.

Buckeye Season Preview Part I

At the beginning of the calendar year, Ohio St was celebrating a thrilling victory over Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl. In just about nine short months, the landscape of the Buckeye football program has changed drastically. Amidst a scandal regarding several high-profile Buckeye football players "allegedly" receiving improper benefits throughout their tenures in Columbus, legendary coach Jim Tressel has stepped down and superstar quarterback Terrelle Pryor has left the team. It is no secret that this once-proud and storied program is in the middle of a total shit-storm (NCAA sanctions still pending), and new head coach Luke Fickell is being called on to be the man to bring them back to where they belong - in the top echelon of collegiate football. Let’s take a look at how he plans to do that, and whether or not he can be successful so soon after the mess that was this off-season.


Last Season
Ohio St came into the 2010 football season ranked #2, with expectations where they typically are in C-Bus - National Championship or bust. If it were not for the first two-and-half quarters on an October Saturday night in Madison, WI, it just may have been the former, but let’s start from the beginning.

OSU cruised through their opener against Marshall leading into their showdown with Miami. The Bucks prevailed in The Shoe, 36-24, but some bone-headed Buckeye mistakes made this game look closer than it was. Another couple of drubbings against far inferior Ohio and Eastern Michigan teams put Ohio St at 4-0 heading into conference play.

In another game that was closer than it should have been, OSU beat Illinois 24-13 in the Big Ten opener. The Bucks stomped Indiana before that forgetful night against the Badgers. Ohio St’s defense seemed invincible all season long, save for this one performance, where Wisconsin running backs John Clay and James White bitch slapped them for nearly 200 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. OSU dug themselves a hole early, trailing at 21-3 at halftime. They provided a bit of a comeback in the final two quarters, but the deficit was too much to overcome and the #1 ranked Buckeyes fell 31-18.

Ohio St came back with a vengeance, outscoring their next three opponents (Purdue, Minnesota, Penn St) by a combined 139-24. OSU then toppled Iowa 20-17, in the regular season’s most exciting game. In the regular season finale, the Buckeyes dropped a close one to michig...oh wait, this is a post from this decade, meaning Ohio St easily disposed of its rival, like always, 37-7. OSU finished the season tied for first in the Big Ten, claiming themselves at least a share of a sixth straight conference title. The Sugar Bowl was an exhilarating one, with Ohio St getting a big lead early only to blow it in the second half before finally prevailing on a last-minute interception of Ryan Mallet in the red zone to beat Arkansas 31-26.


The Offense
With the departure of Jim Tressel and, to a lesser extent, Terrelle Pryor, Ohio St will usher in a new era of Buckeye football. So who will be under center to lead this new era? Well, as I write this we are nine days away from kickoff, and the answer to this question is still unclear. OSU came into spring camp with a wide open, four-man race. Let’s take a look at our candidates, shall we?

Joe Bauserman, Sr. - The only one with any experience, and it isn’t much. In mop-up action last season, Bowser completed 16 of 22 passes for 174 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. Remember Todd Boeckman? Well, picture him, with a weaker arm and without that one year of All-Conference play. Probably the front-runner to start early on in the season.

Kenny Guiton, So. - The dual-threat sophomore has thrown all of two career passes. He showed some flashes with a great Spring Game last year, but couldn’t unseat Bauserman as the backup in ‘10, so that pretty much tells you all you need to know.

Braxton Miller, Fr. - Surely the most talented of the group, and definitely the fan favorite to win the gig. The drawback, as it goes with any true freshman, is the lack of experience and leadership. I see very few scenarios that don’t play out with this guy leading the team by mid-season, but he even has a shot to take over from Week 1.

Taylor Graham, Fr. - The redshirt freshman is son of former OSU standout Kent Graham. He definitely has the best arm of the group but also is the least mobile. His only chance to see the field this year is if the others all really struggle, particularly in the downfield passing attack.

With practices all but over and the season ready to begin, I’m sure Fickell and the coaching staff have a plan in place for the QB position - they just haven’t filled me in yet. My guess is that Bauserman will start opening day, but will be pulled early in the season in favor of Miller.

So with a new quarterback, Ohio St will be relying heavily on their workhorse running back and play-making receiver...starting in Week 6. This is the case because Dan Herron and DeVier Posey were two of the players in the aforementioned scandal, resulting in their suspensions from the first five games of the season.

Boom Herron is a stud - he proved that time and time again last year - but the outlook at RB isn’t all that bleak even with his suspension, as the Buckeyes have a stable of guys ready to carry the load. Jordan Hall will most likely be the “primary” back, although this will by all means be a running back-by-committee. Hall’s 37 carries were tops last year among returning Buckeyes, and his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield makes him an attractive option, considering a new QB may need his check-down guy often.

The most explosive runner on the team is sophomore Jaamal Berry, who averaged a stupid 8.3 yards per carry in limited time last season. I predicted 2010 to be a breakout year for the youngster from Miami, FL, but with Herron being said stud and the since-departed Brandon Saine getting his touches, carries were hard to come by last season. Herron’s suspension just might be the catalyst in Berry becoming a household name. Big man Carlos Hyde and redshirt freshman Rod Smith will also see some action. If one or two of these guys show some promise early on, expect them to split carries with Herron once he returns, forming one of the best ground attacks in the NCAA. Don’t forget about fullback Zach Boren, one of the best lead blockers in the nation.

While the Ohio St running game should be fine sans Boom for a few weeks, the case is much different in the receiving corps without go-to man DeVier Posey. The OSU wides were very thin last year, so the suspension to Posey paired with the graduation of Dane Sanzenbacher leaves the Bucks in dire straits. The only players with a single catch to their resume are sophomores Chris Fields and Corey Brown, who have combined for a whopping 11 career grabs. They appear to be set as the starters in the season’s first five games, and will certainly need help in the form of immediate contributions from true freshmen Devin Smith and Evan Spencer. Redshirt freshmen Verlon Reed and T.Y. Williams may also find their way into the mix. This is not good news for a new starting QB, so tight ends Jake Stoneburner and Reid Fragel will have huge tasks to be the go-to-guys early on to try and steady their signal-caller, whomever that may be. Week 6 cannot come soon enough.

The offensive line will have some new faces, but this unit should once again be the strength of the Buckeye offense, thanks mostly in part to All-Big Ten center and team captain Mike Brewster. Fellow senior J.B. Shugarts is solid and will be back to man the right tackle position, as long as he can shake off a few nagging injuries. The third member of the trio of would-be returning starters, Mike Adams, is - you guessed it - suspended for the first five games.

Sophomore Andrew Norwell looks to have the first shot at replacing Adams, but other young players, including four true freshman, may get their opportunities should he falter. With Justin Boren and Bryant Browning graduated, there is open competition for the two guard spots. Marcus Hall, who seemed to be in Jim Tressel’s doghouse much of last season, should have one spot, as sophomores Jack Mewhort, Corey Linsley, and Ivan Blackman vie for the other. When Adams, another All-Conference performer, returns, this should be one of the better O-lines in the country.


Check back in next week to read my thoughts on the defense, how the schedule shapes up, and overall what we can expect the Buckeyes to accomplish this season.

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Forecasting the Browns' season

With our resident Browns expert Nick apparently still sidelined with ten broken fingers, I thought I'd take a look ahead at what awaits the Cleveland Browns in the almost-here 2011 season. While I do that, I want to simultaneously undercut my entire analysis by evaluating the volatility of the NFL season year-on-year.

You see, there's a certain temptation to look up and down the Browns schedule, evaluate the opponent, and mark prospective W's and L's depending on how that team performed last year. Cincinnati: W. Indianapolis: L. Dolphins: W. And so on. There are two major problems with this.

1) The Browns, even though they haven't been anything resembling good of late, always manage to defeat at least one team that no one gives them a chance against, one of those "guaranteed" L's on the slate. What did you think when you scanned ahead and saw dates at New Orleans and vs New England awaiting a team sporting a 1-5 record and a -37 point differential, starting a rookie third-string QB? Exactly. But look back, we do it every year: 2007 (Seahawks), 2008 (Giants), 2009 (Steelers, hell yes), 2010 (Saints and Patriots). There is a team somewhere on Cleveland's 2011 schedule that you're not giving them a chance to beat that they will neverthelesstake down. [The opposite will unfortunately happen too - 2010 (Buffalo), 2009 (Detroit), 2008 (Bengals) and 2007 (Bengals, thanks DA).]

2) The NFL has a lot of turnover each year in terms of which teams are good and bad. Frankly, I don't know how true this is, though I know I and others take it as an article of faith. If that's true, how come the stupid steelers are never bad? Granted, there are always a couple of surprise teams, but on average how much movement is there in the standings for a given year? I think it's time to see how much turnover there really is, and I'm just the guy to do it.

The Browns' 2011 opponents posted a .492 overall winning percentage in 2010, buoyed in no small part by the 12 wins posted by both Pittsburgh and Baltimore and the fact that we have to play both of those horrible franchises twice, as usual. Take out those AFC North behemoths, and the rest of our schedule is a paltry .406. All right!

Now the question: how much volatility is there really in the NFL for a given season? How useful are that .406 and .492 marks I calculated? I looked at the 2009-10 seasons, because why would I pick another one? It's possible, I suppose, that 2010 wasn't representative, but it didn't feel not representative, and I don't feel like evaluating multiple years' win-loss deltas.

In 2010, the average NFL team experienced a change in wins of 3.3, and moved up or down in their division 1.25 spots, the latter being rather significant because of the small four-team groupings in the current NFL. Fun fact: only two teams posted identical records in '09 and '10; the Miami Dolphins and YOUR Cleveland Browns.

In my view, that average number of 3.3 supports the conventional wisdom that success or failure in the NFL is highly variable year-over-year. Fifteen teams, just a shade under half of the entire league, won at least four more or fewer contests in 2010 than they did in 2009, a swing of an entire quarter of a season from one column to the other! So when you inspect, for example, the Browns' schedule and see a date with Jacksonville on November 20, you can note that the Jags went 8-8 in 2010 but also need to bear in mind that they're just as likely as not to post four or fewer (or 12 or greater) wins in 2011 as they are to remain in the 5 to 11 wins band, which is itself pretty wide. So armed with this knowledge, why on Earth would I try to forecast the Browns' season?

Ha, I talked myself out of it.

But it's still interesting to look at the groups of should-wins and should-loses and consider that they're virtually certain to buck public opinion on (at least) one from each list.

Should-wins (6 or fewer wins in 2010): Bengals (2x), Titans, 49ers, Cardinals

Should-loses (10 or more wins in 2011): steelers (2x), ravens (2x), Colts...and those are the only 2010 10-win clubs we play, thanks to it being our turn to play the NFC West this year.

I suppose the take-home message here is: expect the unexpected. That's good news for Browns fans, since pretty much everyone expects us to be awful this year.

That sucked

What a weekend :(

Coming off of three straight series wins against AL Central foes, including grabbing 2/3 from division-leading Detroit at Progressive Field and 2/3 from third-place Chicago on the road, the Indians pulled within 1.5 games of first heading into Detroit for a three-day showdown with the Tigers. And then...played one of their worst series on the season, failing epically in basically every phase of the game and marooning themselves deep in second place.

Josh Tomlin started the opener on Friday night, and actually pitched a decent ballgame, though he was victimized by three home runs (including Jhonny Peralta continuing his inexplicable, irksome monster season) that translated into Detroit's four runs on the evening. The Indians, unfortunately, were facing five-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer, and dropped a listless affair 4-1.

Back in the majors after some roster mathematics sent him down to Columbus despite three sparkling starts for the Tribe (20 2/3 IP, 1 ER) David Huff (happy birthday today!) started Saturday's ballgame, and a problem was immediately apparent: the Indians accidentally called up 2010 David Huff! You know, that guy who doesn't throw strikes, gives up walks, falls behind in counts, and gives up 5 ER in 2 1/3 IP. Boy does the Indians Front Office feel silly today! Hopefully they'll get the correct version of Huff for his next turn in the rotation. The Indians' bats contributed their customary token run in what eventually was an embarrassing 10-1 drubbing.

You've likely noticed that this article is a little more sarcastic and biting than usual - some of that is because of how annoying the games were, but part is because of my infuration with MLB's stupid "warn both benches" policy. I'm not saying Ubaldo Jimenez' horrific 3 1/3 IP, 8 ER outing was entirely because of the warning he was issued in the top of the third for not having done anything wrong at all, but taking away his inability to pitch inside because of something the other team's pitcher did certainly didn't help.

Let's review. In the top of the 3rd, Asdrubal Cabrera cranked one far down the right field line against Tiger pitcher/world-class douchebag Rick Porcello. Cabrera stood at the plate with his bat, knowing it had the distance but quite aware that it was hooking foul, despite all the wishful body english Cabrera could muster. Upset with this...foul ball, Porcello immediately threw the next pitch at/behind Cabrera, which is a straight-up dick move. Completely uncalled-for. Cabrera wasn't "showing him up" (not that I recognize that as a legitimate reason to throw a baseball 90 MPH at a guy anyway), just lamenting the inevitable foulness of his drive.

So of course, the umpires take the pathetic, brainless MLB-sanctioned action of "warning both benches," wherein if either pitcher plunks a hitter from then out, they're ejected. This policy could not be stupider. For one, hit batsmen are a part of the game, and it does happen acidentally. I know they're trying to prevent Jimenez from retaliating, but it's preposterous to essentially make him walk a tightrope every time he wants to come inside with a pitch just because Porcello is a moron. How about warning, I don't know, the guy who threw the purpose pitch? Why wouldn't a team just, every game, throw one behind an opposing batter early in the contest? Especially if you're facing a superior pitcher - just throw one at the other team's guy, and MLB's brilliant rules mean if your opponent's ace pitcher accidentally plunks a guy, you've knocked him out of the box.

The Indians eventually woke up after spotting the Tigers seven runs in the 3rd, scoring just enough to still lose an 8-7 game on a game-ending flyout/throw out at home after about 100 chances to tie the game, to complete the sweep. Damnit.

Inflation

We received a notice from baseball-reference.com the other day regarding Forest City Fanatics' sponsorship of one Matthew Vincent LaPorta's page on their site, a page which, by the way, is an unbelievably useful tool. In case you didn't know, we plunked down $25 last year to attach our name to LaPorta's career stats, an investment which, as far as I can tell, has yet to net us a single reader. Such is life.

But apparently, the Matt LaPorta market is hot, despite Mister X having clevery nicknamed him Matt "Hey, Matt LaPorta, You Suck" LaPorta the night he hit that three-run walkoff against the Royals. Check out our invoice:

This e-mail regards your sponsorship of page on Baseball-Reference.com.
"sponsorship of page"

Thank you for supporting Baseball-Reference.com. We are writing to let you know that your sponsorship of the following page will expire in 21 days. Clicking the link will take you directly to the renewal page.
At this point, I'm thinking, eh, maybe I'll renew - I probably got $25 of use from B-R last year anyway, right? All those ERA+ and OPS+ I scatter about my unread articles come from B-R. Then:

Matt LaPorta ($95 to renew for 1 year)
$95?????
Really?
This represents a 280% price increase from last year for the privilege of sponsoring the page of a dude with a sparkling 2011 WAR of 0.2. How did this inflation come about? Has B-R's demand been that explosive? Curious, I poked around a bit at the available Tribe pages (Steve Buffum of the B-List snapped up Lou Marson). The fact that over half of our roster is up for grabs makes me wonder about B-R's pricing scheme.

Travis Hafner is $180 (the most expensive Indian, even in cyberspace)
Grady Sizemore for $230 (I stand corrected!)
Kosuke Fukudome is an almost impossible-to-believe $195. Read that number again.
Justin Masterson is $150 (try getting Verlander for that price. Sabathia is $680 for a year. Pujols is the Boardwalk of MLB'ers at $1795 - the only one I've seen over $1k. I sense a party game...)
Josh Tomlin $105 (starting pitching is so hard to find)
Carlos Carrasco is $85
Carlos Santana is $115 (this seems fairly accurate to me)
Jack "The Zookeeper" Hannahan is a preposterous $85

Young'uns can be had on the cheap:
The Chiz is $55
Cord Phelps is $50
Zeke Carrera $30
David Huff $25
"The Baseball Index" snapped up Jason Kipnis, damnit.

The bullpen is amazingly cheap:
Raffy Perez is $25
Vinnie Pestano is $30
Joe Smith $25

The 2011 Indians' team page is only $510, as it turns out. You could buy the Tribe three and a half times for what it takes to nab Pujols' page. Prince Albert must get some serious traffic.

If you're looking for a good bargain buy for FCF, and I am, I feel like Vinnie Pestano is my best choice. Come on, same birthday as JHH, career ERA+ of 133, sprints from the bullpen, allows me to use a hilarious Italian accent every time he comes in. Definitely worth the < 1/3 of the fee I'd have to fork over to B-R for LaPorta. Don't delay! supplies are limited! I could also listen to arguments for the Chiz, or maybe Huff.

On the "Don't Buy" ledger, Fukudome has to be the worst value on the board. Hannahan plays a wonderful 3B, but $85?

If you have decided to no longer sponsor this page, thank you for your prior support, and we hope you will continue to visit Baseball-Reference.com.
I'm going to visit the living shit out of your site, like always, and might even throw a few bucks your way for Vinnie.

If you have any questions or comments, please reply to this e-mail, and we will take care of your request.
I'm much more comfortable replying via blog post.

Sincerely,
[Redacted]
Thanks for the heads-up.

Super-comment metapocalypse

So...I read David Schoenfeld's article about the Indians winning Game 1 of the Tigers series, and for some reason, found myself drifting down into the comments, which I never do, what with them being a cesspool of idiocy and all. But I found myself entranced with many of the comments, so here you go:

jim_cash1021

when i saw schlereth throwing 90% 78mph curve balls, i had a gut feeling we were going to squeeze. I told my wife the right before he threw the wild miss by brantley that Acta was going to squeeze. Brantley hadnt done jack at the plate and the pitcher threw slow. 7/10 times that play works in that scenario.

90%? 7/10? I don't know what's more entertaining, this guy's random number generation or his seer-like powers of prediction.


Sacfly69

I can't believe I watched that terrible game last night. Neither of those teams deserved to win that. They should have just given away the win to KC.

Great plan. Are you sure you thought that one through, Sacfly69? They don't typically award wins to non-participating teams in American baseball. And the Indians did in fact deserve to win, by virtue of having scored more runs than Detroit. And could a game that went 14 innings with zero errors really have been so poorly-played?

Here we've got a goofy series of comments:

PilotAn-225

"Psychologically, the Indians entered the game with a 54-54 record."
-It was a 56-56 record, actually, but close enough, Mr. Schoenfield

IndianaAce

Yeah, well this is a major sports company. All they do is sports. I don't care if this was written at 2 AM or not. Get the darn record right. All that aside, the Indians should be favorites to win this division next year, with the experience from this year and a healthy Choo posting normal numbers to help the lineup. He's been missed.

Gothica639

Can you people possibly cry a bit harder? Or are your lives so miserable that you have to nitpick and whine about every little thing?

Thanks for the haranguing and life perspective there, guy who's commenting about someone else commenting about a story written about a baseball game! Granted, I'm doing a meta-comment piece myself, but I'm not accusing people of having miserable lives because they pointed out a fairly indefensible error in a story by the Worldwide Leader. This is a weird thing done by Internet elitists everywhere, from LeBron to Gothica639, going all ad hoc on someone and assuming that their entire life is sad based on a piece of sports criticism.

andrewjbates

i'm a huge indians fan and as much as i hate everything about the state of michigan (detroit, the tigers, the university of michigan and so on)

By the way, great start from AJ. I already like this kid.

neither team is gonna be winning the world series this year. until a firm salary cap is placed in baseball teams like detroit and cleveland will be fighting for division titles and not much else.

Says who? One of them is going to get in, and we've seen countless times what a free-for-all the MLB playoffs are. The Cardinals won all of 83 games in '06 and took the title.

detroit is a HOCKEY town for christ's sake. not baseball, not football.... hockey. i do like the red wings though.

Wow, should have stopped after that first clause - this comment just got worse and worse. Why does a city have to be a "____" town? Can't a city have devoted fans of more than one sports franchise?

Ihatebandwagons

Hold up... It's not like these teams have always been in trouble. Tigers WS run in 2006... Indians were hands down the second best team in the league and was one game away from the WS in 2007. There was no cap then. The system works fine... What baseball needs to try and do is curb bandwagon fans. Support the teams you live by don't just buy Gonzo red sox jerseys and sit around and never go to a game.

"Hands down the second best team" is a weird phrase. They won 99 games that year, most in the majors. Though I share this fellow's distaste for fair-weather fans, I'm not clear on how he wants to implement this Bandwagon Blockade.

johngrove09

This comment [Ed: andrewjbates'] is just factually incorrect. Teams with lower payrolls (including the Indians as well as the Rays, Rockies, Marlins, Rangers and others) have made serious runs at World Series titles just in the last few years. Beyond that, Detroit spends a lot of money - top 10 in payroll. If the Tigers are somehow disqualified from the WS because they don't spend enough, then you're basically saying that only NY, Bos, or Philly could win a title, which is clearly not true.

Paul Cousineau at the DiaTribe has covered this topic far more in-depth than me, but suffice it to say Mr Grove isn't making the right argument here, though he does effectively shoot down Bates' position that the Tribe or Tigers couldn't get out of the first round.

Unfortunately, he puts a lot of words in other people's mouths, and the fact that low-payroll teams occasionally seize on their windows of opportunity doesn't mean that baseball's payroll imbalance is a good thing or that the game is fair. Grove's comment here has some truth, but it's buried in some misconceptions about baseball's competitiveness and some weird quasi-logic.

It's no wonder these comment threads become such dungeons of inanity - who could possibly police all this madness?

When in doubt...michigan sucks

Anyone even peipherally associated with or interested in this sports weblog, or "blog," knows that Ohio State University's football team has absolutely dominated the unit representing the university of michigan over the past decade. Ohio State's legal troubles notwithstanding, it remains a fact that the wolverines (which I recently discovered are a member of the weasel family) haven't toppled the Buckeyes in The Game since 2003. That's seven straight for those of you from michigan. In fact, the yearly contest has become something of a formality, with OSU posting easy wins in each of the past three seasons.

I certainly don't think the final outcome is going to change this year, but the departure of Jim Tressel from Columbus and arrival of Brady Hoke in ann arbor may level the playing field a bit. As much as I enjoyed watching the hapless LLLLoyd Carr and über-douche Rich Rodriguez tarnish the wolverine legacy, the game will likely become more interesting with a more legitimate guy in charge of the yellow and blue. Much as Jim Tressel immediately put the focus of his tenure on beating the school up north (and delivering 9 wins in 10 tries), Hoke is trying to put his stamp on college football's greatest rivalry as well.

Of course, being from michigan, he's going about it in a dim-bulb fashion. Look at one of the signs posted around um's campus:



Hoke's concept is to not acknowledge the "THE," "State," "University," or "Buckeyes" part of OSU's name - I guess he's trying to go for something like how we call them the "school up north"? It's totally lame though, inasmuch as we actually have an Ohio University. Are we to believe that Hoke has his sights set on the mighty Bobcats?



I kid, I kid. I know Hoke is gunning for the archrival Buckeyes, and I also know he's new to this, so I'm going to go ahead and help him out with sign design.



Much better.

Believeland

A few years ago, a friend of mine had the idea to spin "Cleveland" into "Believeland," a portmanteau expressing the support and confidence Northeast Ohio has for its teams. He had plans to market it and everything. Of course, that slogan had already been coined, and he was a steelers fan who turned out to be a weird dude, so...that's not a particularly good intro. Forget I even wrote it. Move along.

Nevertheless, I believe that the Cleveland Indians can win the American League Central in 2011, even if B-Pro has downgraded us to just an 8% probability of doing so. Regardless of the 1/12 shot B-Pro gives us ("never tell me the odds"), I'm not basing my analysis on "faith" or "hope" - as usual, occasionally to the annoyance of those around me, I'm basing it as much as possible on logic.

Consider first the Wahoos' remaining schedule. Pronounce it "shed-ule" if you like. We have 47 games remaining in which to make up two games on the Detroit Tigers and stave off the third-place Chicago White Socks, who sit just one back. Some facts about those remaining games:

- 25 are at home, 22 are on the road.
- Only 12 of the 47 are against teams with winning records
- The average win percentage of our remaining opponents, weighted by how many times we will face them, is just .476.
- We have nine more shots at Detroit and eleven against the White Socks. Our destiny is entirely in our own hands.

Schedule-wise, you couldn't set up a better seven-week closing stretch for the Tribe. Minnesota, for example, comes into town this week with three starters dragging 4.50+ ERA's into their starts, in the personages of Pavano, Duensing, and Slowey. Winnable much?

That's fine, but what about the Indians themselves, a team who is just 28-42 (.400) over their past 70 games? I've argued all season that the Indians have been a well-balanced team, despite the odd "conventional wisdom" that pitching has carried them, and we still currently sport a 100 OPS+ and a 97 ERA+, backing my view. We sit just below the "LgAvg" entry when you sort the AL in both categories, scoring 4.31 a game (LgAvg = 4.36) and posting an ERA of 3.97 (LgAvg = 3.95). Balance is the key to this team - as maligned as their lineup has been, more AL teams plate fewer runs a game than the Tribe (7), than plate more (6).

Some new arrivals, most notably Ubaldo Jimenez, may change that balance in favor of the pitching staff. The strength of the mound unit all year has been the Bullpen Mafia - recent road trip notwithstanding, Smith, the Perezes, Pestano, and Sipp have all been excellent this season. The starters have been less impressive - only Justin Masterson (ERA+ = 142) has been above-average, and dramatically so. But think about how the rotation can slot now, given some recent acquisitions and promotions:

Masterson
Jimenez
Tomlin
Carmona
Carrasco
Huff

You only need five from that group to perform for the rest of the season, and frankly I see Carrasco as the odd man out. Huff appears to have really figured things out, not just based on his two stellar outings with the Tribe but on the numbers and reports from Columbus as well. Tomlin seems extremely likely to be his same consistently good self ("a quality, classy pitcher") and Carmona has shown flashes (like his final four innings last night) that maybe having the pressure of being a #1 might help him relax and get people out.

We shouldn't expect a huge upswing in runs, though having Choo back should provide a lift. If he and Brantley can return at close to their normal levels, we can slot the lineup as:

Brantley LF
Kipnis 2B (how about this kid?)
Cabrera SS
Hafner DH
Choo RF
Santana 1B
Fukudome CF
Chiz 3B
Marson C

I'll take my chances with that lineup, not least because it puts Ezequiel Carrera in a role as 4th OF where he belongs so I don't have to see him every day.

Look, we're not going to breeze to a division title, and I know there were a few "ifs" both explicit and implicit in my forecast. But the schedule, heavy on home games, weak sisters, and the teams we need to oust, is right where it needs to be. The rotation got a big shot in the arm by the addition of Ubaldo (last start: 8 IP, 0 ER). The bullpen has been strong all year. And the lineup looks like it might all be coming together at the perfect time.

GET EM.