Fraud Protection

This week the Cleveland Browns (8-5) will face off against the Buffalo Bills (7-6) in a game with enormous playoff implications. If the Browns win, they will extend their lead on the Bills to two games, while also holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Buffalo with only two regular season games remaining. In other words, if the Browns beat Buffalo, their only concern will be the Tennessee Titans, currently 7-6, who have two tough matchups left on their schedule (at Kansas City, and at Indianapolis).

So this game is the big one for the Browns. If they beat the Bills, they can essentially start printing playoff tickets, and start worrying about catching Jacksonville to avoid a first round showdown with Pittsburgh on the field that condiments built. But for now, the focus needs to stay on this Sunday’s game.

When all 32 teams embarked on their quests for the Lombardi Trophy back in September, nobody circled the week 15 pairing of Buffalo and Cleveland. Hell, until recently, tickets for this game could have been had for significantly under face value on various ticket resale sites. But in the NFL we’ve learned to expect the unexpected, and the Bills and Browns are textbook examples of how things can be turned around in just one season. The Bills have already matched their 2006 win total (seven), while the Browns have already doubled their ‘06 victories (four).

So how did this happen? How did these two teams who were given little respect or attention outside of their respective cities, play their way into contention? We know the various reasons for Cleveland’s improvement; relatively good health, a friendly schedule, a revamped offensive line, great receiver play, a rejuvenated running back, sound offensive play calling, a Cinderella story at quarterback, and a defense that has risen up to make some key stops when necessary. But what about Buffalo? What winds their collective clock?

Honestly, the Bills are a lousy team on offense (ranked 28th). They’re right in the middle of the league running the football (16th-110.5 yards per game), but they can’t pass worth a lick. Rookie quarterback Trent Edwards seems to have beaten out the disappointing JP Losman, but Edwards has looked very rookie-like, and thus the Bills have averaged only 173 yards per game through the air (28th).

Nobody has suffered from Edwards winning the starting job more than wideout Lee Evans, the Bills’ most explosive player. Last season, Evans caught 82 balls and racked up nearly 1,300 yards, but he hasn’t so much as sniffed those numbers this year (47 catches, 768 yards). Nevertheless, Evans is probably Buffalo’s best player, and he’s a threat to go for 150 yards and multiple touchdowns if Trent Edwards can get him the football. The Browns need to use a safety to double cover Evans whenever possible.

As mediocre as the Bills are on offense, they’re ranked lower on defense (30th overall). Weather permitting, Derek Anderson should put up monstrous numbers against a Bills secondary that gives up 251.4 yards per game through the air (29th). The Bills have trouble stopping the run, as well (16th-112.4 ypg). Somehow, Buffalo has managed to stay in the middle of the pack in points allowed (16th-22.4 points per game), as they aim to play rubber band defense; bending for big chunks of yardage but refusing to break in the red zone.

Roscoe Parrish is the only Buffalo special teamer worthy of recognition. Parrish leads the league with an intimidating average of 17.5 yards per punt return, and has returned one punt for a touchdown. Unfortunately for the Bills, their defense doesn’t force many punts.

So here’s the lowdown: the Bills score 17.1 points per game, allow 22.4 points per game, and have been outscored by 69 points total this year. Yet, the Bills are 7-6. How can this be?

The answer is simple: a cushy schedule. Buffalo plays in an AFC East that, minus the Patriots, is an absolute joke. Four of the Bills’ seven wins have come against Miami and the New York Jets. Two of Buffalo’s wins are against Baltimore and Cincinnati, a pair of teams having tough seasons. And Buffalo notched one win against the grieving Washington Redskins on the week of Sean Taylor’s passing. The Redskins are a mediocre team even by NFC standards. You can search high and low for a quality win, but you won’t find one on Buffalo’s schedule.

On the flipside, when the Bills have had to face a playoff-caliber foe, they haven’t been up to the task. Buffalo has lost four games by 23 points or more (Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, New England twice), and they couldn’t beat the Cowboys in Orchard Park in spite of six Tony Romo turnovers.

Folks, this is not a playoff football team. The Buffalo Bills are a complete fraud, and like Jacksonville, New England, and Pittsburgh before them, the task of exposing the Bills now falls to the Browns.

This is the cliché “statement game” for the Browns. It’s at home, it’s December, and a win would give the Browns a stranglehold on a Wild Card spot. The Browns need to draw a line in the sand, come out of the tunnel, and absolutely buffalo the Bills. Here’s a chance for the Browns to develop some killer instinct, a chance to get ahead of a mediocre team early and stomp on their figurative throat in the second half

This is a game that the Browns should win handily. A blowout win would send a message not only to the Bills but to the rest of the league that Cleveland Browns football is no longer a punch line, that this team has arrived, and that this team has no intention of going quietly in the first round of the playoffs. It’s time for the Browns to take care of business.

Independent events

Let's discuss briefly the Jets' end-game strategy during this past Sunday's NFL contest in New Jersey, won by the Browns.

Many people are criticizing Jet coach Eric Mangini's decisions to kick field goals and attempt on-side kicks instead of trying to convert 4th-and-long situations late in the game. Personally, I think Mangini's decisions were OK, except that out-of-bounds deep kick at the end was kind of weird. Getting that field goal with two minutes left to pull within a touchdown was not a bad strategic move, nor was kicking prior to that instead of trying to convert a 4th-and-10 with Kellen Clemens at QB. You could argue that playing for the touchdown would have been the right move, and I think you also would have been right. To me, both were reasonable strategies - I probably would have done it like Mangini but would be OK with a coach going the other route.

I'm not here to discuss that, though. No, I'm here to set the record straight on onside kick probabilities and how Mangini's choices should be evaluated. A number of people at my Browns club during the game and many of the people criticizing Mangini since the game have talked up "the odds" of recovering two onside kickoffs in one game or, as one blogger put it, having lightning strike twice. This is poor analysis.

The chances of a successful on-sider are roughly 1 in 4 in the NFL. So, starting from scratch, the odds of getting two in a row are about 1 in 16 (6.3%). That is not good. Considering the Jets actually tried three kicks, their chances of getting two were closer to 11%. Still not especially good, but in this discussion, not especially relevant either.

You see, those criticizing Mangini for trying a second kick, both at the time he elected to do so and after the game, failed to realize that the first kick had already succeeded and had no bearing on future on-side recovery probability. People kept saying, "what are the odds of getting two onside kicks in a row?" and I kept saying, "It doesn't matter - they've already gotten the first one so now all that matters is the odds of getting one again, still 1 in 4." Once lightning has struck, the odds of it striking twice are the same as they originally were for it hitting once.

The point is that the second (and third) onside kicks were independent of the successful result of the first. Likewise, a failed first try wouldn't have meant they were "due" or had any enhanced probability of getting a second attempt, nor should it have deterred them if a second one seemed like the right strategic move. The whole notion of athletes being "due" is entirely incorrect - the past does not strongly affect the present. Fans and columnists may criticize Mangini for trying a second short kick if they wish, but they cannot frame it in the context of trying to grab two on-siders, since the first had already been executed successfully.

NFL Picks: Week 14

REDSKINS (-3) vs. Bears
Andy: Bears
Nick: Redskins (No way Bucko, no forfeits here)
(Try to make it on time, next time. I doubt Vegas would let you make this pick on Saturday night.)

LIONS (+10.5) vs Cowboys
Andy: Cowboys
Nick: Cowboys

BILLS (-7) vs Dolphins
Andy: Bills
Nick: Bills (the Dolphins will win this game)
(Odd, then, that you picked the Bills.)

EAGLES (-2.5) vs Giants
Andy: Giants
Nick: Giants

JAGUARS (-10.5) vs Panthers
Andy: Panthers
Nick: Jags

TITANS (PK) vs Chargers
Andy: Titans
Nick: Chargers

BENGALS (-7) vs Rams
Andy: Bengals
Nick: Bengals (They have killed me this year)

PACKERS (-10.5) vs Raiders
Andy: Raiders
Nick: Pack

PATRIOTS (-10.5) vs Steelers
Andy: Steelers
Nick: Pats

TEXANS (+3) vs Bucs
Andy: Bucs
Nick: Bucs

SEAHAWKS (-7) vs Cardinals
Andy: Seahawks
Nick: Seahawks

NINERS (+8.5) vs Vikings
Andy: Vikings
Nick: Vikings

JETS (+3.5) vs Browns
Andy: Browns!
Nick: Browns

BRONCOS (-6.5) vs Chiefs
Andy: Broncos
Nick: Broncos

RAVENS (+9) vs Colts
Andy: Colts (feel free to edit this, slacker)
Unlike some of us, I'll have them all in before gametime...
Nick: Colts (I'm cuckoo for favorites!)

FALCONS (+4) over Saints
Andy: Saints
Nick: Saints

Tim Couch's Finest Moments

The offensive success the Browns have enjoyed this season has naturally led to much discussion of the team's quarterback situation - they've got a guy (Derek Anderson) who is showing that he is a solid NFL starter, plus an untested rookie who seems a very safe bet to succeed. This whole QB situation, along with the random appearance of a dude at the Capital District Browns Backers last Sunday sporting a #2 jersey, led my thoughts to none other than Tim Couch.

Couch, as you almost certainly know, was the New Browns' #1 pick when they re-entered the league, helmed the club off and on for five tumultuous seasons, and never really made it back into the league. Debates are ongoing as to whether Couch was a victim of an unfortunate situation or simply not an effective QB. The right answer is probably a bit of both. Couch played behind a terrible line, usually trailed thanks to poor defense, and rarely had any semblance of a running game. Still, he was maddeningly inconsistent even when given time to throw and never really developed into the type of QB you expected to lead the team forward.

But we're not here to talk about that. We're here to reminisce over the Best of Tim Couch. Let's not forget that the guy had some really awesome games, and a pretty solid campaign overall in 2002, when he led the Browns to an 8-3 record down the stretch and their lone playoff berth of the new era. For fun, and to give the guy some credit, let's talk about the five greatest games of the Tim Couch Era. To eep it to 5 (which I didn't actually manage to do), I had to leave off his commanding performance in the 2000 win over Pittsburgh (127.9 passer rating, 23-31 for 316 yards, 2 TD's, no INT) and efficient work in the first 2001 over Baltimore (124.5, 11-18, 149, 2TD, 0 INT). Still, I wanted to give them Honorable Mention as an excuse to talk about those great wins over those two rival clubs.

Onto the list...


5) 21-16 over NO (1999), 21-20 over JAX (2002)
If you need a guy to play consistently week-in and week-out and direct a high-scoring offense while making smart decisions and not turning the ball over, Tim Couch wouldn't be your first choice. But if you need someone to throw a desperation jump-ball into the end zone at the end of a game, you can't do better, as these two ridiculous wins prove. The first one, of course, was hauled in by Kevin Johnson in the Superdome, giving the resurrected Browns their first victory over a stunned New Orleans team. The second, one of about 300 improbable events that had to happen for the '02 squad to qualify for the playoffs, was lucky but not entirely so. They wisely sent everyone to the left side of the end zone except Quincy Morgan, who hauled in the catch near the right boundary over two defenders. After surviving a replay challenge, the Pittsburgh Browns Backers club I was at erupted in celebration over the victory and the bizarre season rolled on.


4) 24-21 over NYJ (2002)
The week after Al Lerner's death, Couch led the Browns to an inprobable comeback win in the Meadowlands, highlighted by an absurd hook-shot falling-down throw that was somehow completed for a game-tying two-point conversion. They were behind by like 18 points or something in this game and still came back and won it in dramatic fashion. For the game, Couch finished with good-not-spectacular stats: 97.0 rating, 32-48 for 294 yards, 2 TD's and 0 interceptions, but I'll always remember that 2-pointer.


3) 41-38 over TEN (2001)
One of the wildest games in New Browns history, this was the only contest the Browns won out of their last six in 2001, after starting the year 6-4. After four straight losses, the Browns promptly fell behind 14-0 to the Titans and things didn't look good, to put it mildly. I was barely into my first beer by the time McNair threw his 2nd TD pass. But Couch and the Browns offense never gave up; Timmy posted a line of 20-27 for 336 yards, 3 TD's and just one pick for a sparkling passer rating of 137.3. The Browns trailed late, needing an onside-kick recovery and a TD pass from Couch to Northcutt to force overtime, where they quickly put the stunned Titans to bed with a Phil Dawson FG. This one is Couch's best shootout, trailing only DA's gunslinging against Cincy earlier this year and Holcomb's loss to Cincy in 2005 among new-era slugfests.

2) 14-13 over Baltimore (2002)
If the Browns only scored 14 points and Couch's passer rating was a so-so 86.6, how is this the second-best game of his career? The final drive, that's how. Trailing 13-7 to the Ravens on the road in the season's penultimate game, back when Baltimore was still pretty awesome on defense, Couch and the Brownies had only 2:08 and no timeouts to go 92 yards for a TD and keep their playoff hopes alive. I still don't know how they did it. I almost hit my head on Mike's ceiling when they scored the winning TD. The icing on the cake was Couch sarcastically waving to Baltimore's fans on his way out of the stadium - it was great to see such a beleaguered fellow so happy.

1) 33-13 over Pittsburgh (2003)
Easily Couch's finest hour, this Sunday night special is the only time we've taken down the Steelers in about the last 800 tries. Couch wasn't even supposed to start this game - Holcomb was a late scratch. I was living in Pittsburgh and remember listening to a radio DJ doing a remote and announcing to the crowd that Couch was starting and everyone laughing. All Couch did was lead the Browns to a dominating victory, completing 20-25 passes including two scores and running for a TD(!) by halftime. All this while wearing orange pants.

Where Credit Isn't Due

The Cleveland Browns have seemingly come out of nowhere as a serious playoff contender. As I write this, the Browns are 7-5, tied for the AFC’s second Wild Card sport, and have a 63.4 percent chance of making the playoffs according to projections by Football Outsiders.

As the Browns begin to garner national attention and respect, head coach Romeo Crennel has likewise been praised for the job he’s done with this year’s squad. But what has been the true catalyst for the vast improvement of the ‘07 Browns?

Naturally, the narrow scope of national media outlets like ESPN focuses on a few key skill players (i.e. Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow) and the head coach. No doubt, the Browns have received markedly improved play at the quarterback and receiver positions, but what has Crennel done differently? How much credit does Crennel actually deserve?

Of course when a team is struggling, the head coach will be criticized, and vice-versa. Sometimes the praise and criticism is warranted and sometimes it isn’t; a head coach’s influence is often difficult to truly quantify. But getting back to the original question at hand, why are these Browns so much better than last year’s version? Here’s a look at the drivers behind Cleveland’s Cinderella season, complete with commentary on who’s really responsible for all of this development.

An Apple A Day…
One of the biggest reasons that the Browns are better is that they have managed to avoid their customary mass visits to the Cleveland Clinic. At the 12 game mark, Cleveland offensive linemen are usually wearing “Hello, my name is…” tags, and keeping the quarterback off of a stretcher, let alone upright, is a tremendous achievement. The NFL is too well-balanced for any team to survive the heightened attrition of a barrage of injuries, and the Browns are no exception.

Obviously, the Browns have not been completely injury free. Several players, such as Willie McGinest, Seth McKinney, and Eric Wright have missed significant time due to injury. But the Browns have yet to suffer the lethal blow of a season ending injury to one or more of the team’s most integral players, and unless such a catastrophe befalls them (e.g. LeCharles Bentley), the Browns will remain highly competitive.
The Credit Goes To: Luck


Luck Of The Draw
For once, the Browns received a break from the folks responsible for drafting the league’s schedule. The Browns schedule currently has a collective record of 84-108, a winning percentage of only .438. Although the Browns have won seven games, only one victory has come against a team that presently has a winning record (i.e. Seattle). As a borderline playoff team, sometimes the difference between a playoff birth and playing golf in January is simply the luck of the draw.

While some might contest that the NFL’s scheduling formula is responsible for the Browns’ good fortune, this really isn’t the case. Yes, due to their 2006 fourth place finish, the Browns do play some teams that also finished in fourth. But the only two teams on the Browns’ schedule who are not on the schedule of any of the other AFC North teams are Houston and Oakland (who, like the Browns, finished fourth in their respective divisions). This year’s weak schedule isn’t so much attributable to the Browns finishing in the AFC North’s cellar last season as it is to the North matching up with two divisions that are very weak overall this season, the AFC East and NFC West.
The Credit Goes To: Luck


It All Starts Up Front
General manager Phil Savage made several key personnel decisions in the off-season that helped stimulate this year’s improvement, not the least of which being a renewed commitment to the offensive line. Savage first moved to re-sign the solid, if unspectacular, center Hank Fraley to a long-term contract on the eve of free agency. During the ‘07 free agency, Savage made a big splash early, adding prized guard Eric Steinbach within the first 24 hours of the signing period with a 7-year, $49.5 million contract.

Certainly, the Browns had to overpay for Steinbach, but you can’t add premium talent in free agency without paying an equally extravagant price. Savage would later do more to solidify up the line, inking Seth McKinney, a 28 year old guard from Texas A&M.

Finally, Savage made the biggest move of all, sending a mild shock through the football world by drafting Wisconsin tackle Joe Thomas with the third overall pick, in lieu of running back Adrian Peterson or quarterback Brady Quinn. No one with more than half a brain will debate the fact that Thomas was the right pick, especially in hindsight, but at the time it was surprising to see the Browns pass on the “sexy” pick of a flashy running back or a high profile signal caller. The Thomas pick made all kinds of sense, but considering that it was made by a Browns franchise that has written the book on high-end draft busts, it was a pick that left fans and media alike in disbelief.

The Thomas pick represents a commitment by Savage not only to throw big money at the offensive line, which the Browns have been doing for years, but to build the line the right way; both with quality draft picks and via a more focused approach in free agency. In other words, the dart board “shoot ‘till you hit” strategy that the Browns previously employed when adding free agent offensive linemen, is dead.
The Credit Goes To: Phil Savage


Behind Enemy Lines
Savage also added running back Jamal Lewis by way of free agency. When paired with the trade of plodding incumbent back Reuben Droughns to the New York Giants just days later, the Cleveland backfield had a brand new look, and many murmured quiet criticisms of the Lewis addition.

Prior to joining the Browns, Jamal Lewis was one of the most hated players within the fraternity of Cleveland fans. Lewis torched the Browns for 500 yards in 2003 on his way to a 2,000-yard rushing year. Along with Ray Lewis, Jamal became a symbol of a Baltimore Ravens team that Browns fans hated at a level second only to that of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

But Browns fans have put aside their initial reactions and embraced Lewis, as he’s helped fuel the team’s bid for the postseason. The addition of Lewis has given the Browns a bruising, between-the-tackles runner who effectively sets up the play action game, in addition to giving the Browns the best goal line back that they’ve had since their 1999 return. Lewis has proven to be an excellent signing.
The Credit Goes To: Savage


“He Is The One…”
Perhaps the most publicized change for this incarnation of the Browns has been the astonishing emergence and development of third year quarterback Derek Anderson, who replaced the incompetent Charlie Frye just two quarters into the season opener.

Anderson looked awful during the preseason. In fact, Anderson looked worse than the clueless Frye. But after watching Anderson play almost an entire season, it’s easy to see why he looked so bad in the exhibition games: Crennel was alternating series with the quarterbacks. DA is a guy that needs to get into a rhythm, and sometimes it takes him a few drives for him to do so. With Crennel initially auditioning the quarterbacks - one drive for Anderson, one drive for Frye, etc. - Anderson never had the opportunity to show how explosive the offense can be with a strong-armed quarterback because he never found his rhythm.

Don’t blame Crennel for rotating quarterbacks so frequently, because there weren’t any clearly superior options. The Browns wanted to see each quarterback both with the first team offense and pitted against the opposition’s first team defense, and considering how little the starters play in three of the four preseason games, it was the only way to achieve that goal.

But Crennel is at least partially to blame for not identifying Anderson as the better player in mini camp and training camp. Crennel also might be responsible for Charlie Frye starting the season opener against Pittsburgh.

There was never anything concrete, but rumors swirled in late August and early September that Crennel was in favor of starting Frye, while Chudzinski and Savage preferred the laser-armed Anderson. At any rate, thank God that Anderson wasn’t traded over the summer, or worse, released. Author’s Note: Over the summer, I suggested cutting Derek Anderson after the second or third preseason game, when it became clear that Frye would be the starter, at least initially. I am an idiot.

Crennel substituted Anderson for Frye in the opener, but Koko the gorilla could have made that decision. Coach Crennel certainly isn’t responsible for discovering Derek Anderson. If anything, Crennel’s handling of the quarterback competition only hindered Anderson’s development.

Rob Chudzinski deserves accolades for designing game plans in which the passing game is primarily vertical, and focuses on long and intermediate patterns. Such game plans accentuate Anderson’s main strengths of pocket presence and a freakishly strong arm, while taking the onus off of Anderson’s Achilles’ heel, the short slants and dump off patterns. If the Browns had tried to run a West Coast Offense, for example, Derek Andreson might have already been deposed by the Mighty Quinn.
The Credit Goes To: Savage, Chudzinski, and the Steelers (for exposing Frye)


Bring In The Chud
Installing Rob Chudzinski as offensive coordinator has brought order to a chaotic Browns offense that seemed to invent new and unique ways to implode in recent years. Chudzinski has given the Browns sensible, yet creative play calling, coupled with an offensive system that plays to the strengths of the offense. Anderson’s strong arm, the downfield playmaking abilities of Edwards and Winslow, and Joe Jurevicius to a lesser degree, along with the juggernaut left side of the line composed of Thomas and Steinbach, all have been brilliantly exploited by Chudzinski during Cleveland’s scoring renaissance.

Why was Chudzinski hired? It’s easy to forget that Romeo Crennel was on the hot seat less than one year ago, when Crennel was essentially given an ultimatum by Savage that there would be significant, non-negotiable changes instituted on Crennel’s coaching staff. You can hardly blame Savage for being so active, as Crennel had been guilty of significant cronyism in his first two seasons with the Browns, particularly with the hiring (and retaining after one awful year) of Maurice “Throw Vickers, Throw!” Carthon as offensive coordinator.

After some deliberation, Savage hired Chudzinski, in addition to eight other coaches, replacing nearly half of Crennel’s staff (offensive coordinator, special teams coordinator, offensive line coach, strength-and-conditioning coach, assistant strength-and-conditioning coach senior offensive assistant coach, running backs coach, quarterbacks coach, tight ends coach).

Romeo Crennel had nothing to do with hiring Rob Chudzinski.
The Credit Goes To: Savage


Back To Romeo
Crennel was not integral to any of the changes that have made this team so much better than its predecessors, but he hasn’t made any noticeable improvements while coaching, either.

Time management has always been an issue for Crennel, and his problems handling the clock have continued this season. How can this be? It’s baffling to think that Romeo Crennel has coached in the NFL for 26 years, and yet he still struggles to identify the correct moment to stop the clock. From a fan’s perspective, Romeo being chronologically challenged is extremely frustrating because time management should be one of the easiest parts of a head coach’s job. If a guy can’t determine the appropriate time to stop the clock, he’s not qualified to lead a professional franchise.

During his time in Cleveland, Crennel has always struggled to get his team prepared and well-focused going into a game, while also struggling to make the appropriate adjustments at halftime. The proof is in the pudding; the 2007 Browns are being outscored in the first (50-85), third (73-79), and fourth (85-91) quarters, outscoring opponents in only the second (122-83) quarter and overtime (6-0).

While the team’s performance in the second half is similar to their opponents’, a difference of only 12 points, it still reflects that Crennel’s halftime adjustments don’t give the Browns a significant advantage in the second halves of games. More disturbing, though, are the aggregate scores of this year’s first quarters, where the Browns are losing by a total of 35 points. To start the game, the Browns have kicked off six times and received six times, so the skewed numbers aren’t tainted by an inequity of possession. No, the Browns’ first quarter problems appear to simply be the result of coming out of the tunnel flat, lifeless, and ill-prepared, a staple of the Crennel era.

Another very visible ongoing problem for Crennel has been his complete ineptitude with the use of the coach’s challenge in instant replay. Crennel’s infamous multiple timeout challenge that may have cost the Browns their week 10 game in Pittsburgh has become the stuff of legend.

Crennel came into the season 1-for-15 on his career coach’s challenges, including 0-for-7 his first year, and 1-for-8 last year. This year hasn’t been much different, as Crennel currently stands at 2-for-7, bringing his career mark to a bleak 3-for-22. That said, if this trend continues, Crennel will win not one, not two, but three challenges next season. Watch out, New England! Book your flight to Tampa for the ’08 Super Bowl, folks!

At least Crennel has apparently realized that he’s challenge-challenged, as he designated TJ McCreight, the Browns personnel director, the new replay advisor this season. McCreight replaced Jerry Butler, the Browns director of player development, who occupied replay advisor post the previous two seasons. Unfortunately, a new face has done little to change Crennel’s luck with the red flag, and one has to wonder how NFL teams don’t have replay review down to a science by now.

There are coaches who have excellent records on challenges. In fact, one of the things Butch Davis was best known for during his time in Cleveland was his mastery of the replay system. Maybe Romeo should give Butch a ring down at UNC to ask for a few pointers, because whatever he’s doing now, it’s not working.

Three concerns regarding Crennel’s coaching techniques have been isolated, and standing alone, each concern might be forgivable. HOWEVA, the bigger issue here might be Crennel’s apparent inability to identify and rectify the problems that have plagued him in each of his three seasons as a head coach. It’s not easy to be a successful NFL head coach, which is why it’s not unusual to see as many as half a dozen head coaching changes in any one off-season. If you can’t identify and correct your mistakes as an NFL head coach, your chances for success are severely diminished.

Romeo Crennel has numerous positive qualities; he’s a very experienced coach, he’s learned from legendary coaches like Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick, he’s a class act all the way, and he’s loyal to his players, never publicly berating or embarrassing one of his guys. And there’s no debating that Crennel has a brilliant football mind, because coaches like Parcells and Belichick are renowned for their abilities to identify and surround themselves with smart people. Hell, it’s why other teams keep stealing Belichick’s coordinators.

But does Crennel have the ability to think on his feet and adjust on the fly that separates great head coaches from the also-rans? Does Crennel have that elusive “it” factor, or is he just a great defensive coordinator? Two weeks ago I referenced the Peter Principle, insinuating that it might apply to Crennel, and I’m willing to stand by that assessment. Crennel may have been promoted to his point of incompetence.

Like many of the Orange and Brown faithful, I was extremely lukewarm on Crennel at the season’s onset. Although the Browns have exceeded all realistic expectations, nothing seems to indicate that Crennel has played a major role in the team’s improved performance. I still don’t think that Romeo Crennel is the right man for the job.

Make no mistake, Crennel will be back next season. The Browns’ resurgence has earned Crennel some buzz as a coach of the year candidate, which shows just how ignorant the national pundits can often be. Romeo’s contract runs through the 2009 season, and unless the Browns absolutely go into the tank next year, it looks like Crennel will serve out the duration of his contract.

For better or worse, we’re stuck with him. But that doesn't mean we have to like it.

Vote Cribbs

One of my favorite topics to harp on is how stupid fan voting is for pro sports all-star games (the games themselves aren't that great, but that's another article.) Fans are totally inept at this task and shouldn't have any influence on who is selected, ever. Ever. I remember a few years ago when Nomar Garciaparra led AL shortstops in All-Star voting even though he hadn't, in fact, played a game that year. Great job, fans!


Now I've got a new one to complain about: the Patriots' Wes Welker leading the AFC in voting for kick returners just because he plays for the Patsies. The man is SEVENTH in punt return average and doesn't return kickoffs. Think about that, digest it for a minute. He only does half of the team's returning, and six guys are better than him at that half of it. Granted, seventh is respectable in punt returns, but we're not voting on respectability, we're trying to select the league's best return man. And Welker is clearly not even close to that.

I think we've established that anyone who casts a vote for Welker is a fool. This is especially true when you have an option like the Browns' Josh Cribbs. Not only does Cribbs lead the league in kick return average (his total KR yardage is nine times of what Welker has piled up in all of six returns on the year), but also sports a punt return average that is, you guessed it, better than Welker's.

Vote Cribbs!

Because we're playing the Jets...

Heroes & Zeroes: Week 13

That was rough. When the Browns lose a game to a better team, or even a team of comparable talent, it’s tough for fans to swallow. But when the Browns flat out gift wrap a game for a team, especially a team that’s clearly inferior, it’s beyond frustrating. And that’s without a doubt what happened on Sunday; the Cardinals didn’t win the game, the Browns lost it.

The glass half full perspective says that four turnovers including a pick-six is an insurmountable obstacle for most teams, and yet the Browns still had a chance to win the game on the final play. But there’s no way to spin the fact that Cleveland should have beaten Arizona by multiple touchdowns, and the Browns let a golden opportunity go by the wayside on Sunday.

I swear, the Browns should carry Tim Couch on the roster solely for Hail Mary endgame scenarios…


This Week’s Zeroes

Five Demerits: Derek Anderson
Derek Anderson seemed to be getting his turnover problem under control. In the three games prior to facing the Cardinals, DA had limited himself to just a pair of turnovers.

Apparently Anderson hasn’t quite turned that corner yet, and DA Harvey Two-Face reared his ugly head on Sunday. Two interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, and a lost fumble, those are the numbers that really mattered for Anderson. Throughout his collegiate and professional careers, the big knocks on Anderson have been inconsistency, bad decision-making, and turnovers. We saw all three against the Cards.

Anderson’s pick-six to Roderick Hood put the Browns in a 7-0 hole. But Anderson’s fumble on the ensuing drive which led to another Arizona touchdown put the Browns behind the eight ball, and it was a lead that would prove to be too much for the youthful squad to overcome.

Anderson has only started 14 NFL games, and he looked like a first year starter against the Cards. But Anderson does deserve some credit for recovering from a putrid start to at least give the Browns a chance to win.

DA’s struggles have allowed the Brady Quinn murmurs to restart. This is only natural when a high profile and very gifted prospect is sitting on the bench. But under no circumstance except injury will Brady Quinn replace Anderson this season. It just won’t happen. Frankly, all the Brady Quinn in ‘07 talk is silly; it’s time for everyone to get behind Anderson for these last four games, for better or worse.

And whether you’re a Quinn guy or and Anderson backer, the fact remains that Derek Anderson playing well this season is great for the Browns both short term and long term. In the present, Anderson playing well means the Browns will make the playoffs. And if Anderson plays well, it will help the Browns in the future, when they will most likely trade him for draft picks in the off-season.

Four Demerits: NFL Rules Committee
Force-outs are not reviewable, but they should be.

Anyone with half a brain who watched the replay of Derek Anderson’s 37-yard “incompletion” to Kellen Winslow will tell you that K2 was forced out of bounds. I realize that a force-out is a judgment call, but there are plenty of reviewable plays that are judgment calls, so I’m not buying that excuse.

How about a sideline catch, isn’t that a judgment call? The receiver needs possession of the football and two feet inbounds. How often does the official have to make a judgment call regarding possession?

I rest my case. NFL, get the rule fixed this off-season.

Three Demerits: Brian Billick
Author’s Note: There’s a very good chance that Brian Billick may become this column’s default whipping boy. It couldn’t happen to a nicer guy…

Did you happen to catch that puffy coat Billick was sporting this week? Was that thing made of Gore-Tex? It didn’t look like something that belongs on an NFL head coach. By contrast, Bill Belichick’s trademark hoody looked awfully classy.

I was enormously close to rooting for the Ravens on Monday night solely because they were playing the despicable Patriots. By game time I came to my senses.

Was there ever any doubt that the Pats were going to pull it out? It just felt like one of those games during which some unseen force wasn’t going to let the Ravens finish off New England. But the Patriots have sure looked vulnerable the last two weeks. I’ll definitely have an eye on that Pittsburgh/New England game during the Browns game’s commercial breaks this week.

But back to the offensive genius at hand. It’s often said that sports teams take on the demeanor of their coach, and in the Ravens’ case, it couldn’t be more true. Billick has trained a team full of whiners, and he’s trained them well. If you tuned in to any sports talk radio on Tuesday morning, you heard the whining of at least four Baltimore defenders bashing the officials from Monday night’s game. It seemed that the general consensus in the Baltimore locker room was that the officials handed the game to the Patriots. Losers. It might as well have come from the mouth of Billick himself.

Sure, Bill Belichick was the reason that Rex Ryan called a timeout. Tom Brady obviously forced Jamaine Winborne to grab handfuls of Ben Watson’s jersey on fourth down from the 13-yard line. And when Bart Scott threw a teenage girl temper tantrum and chucked a penalty flag into the stands, it was actually Randy Moss in disguise.

After his Ravens won 13 games last season, Billick’s squad has plummeted to 4-8, losers in six straight. Remember when Billick was on the hot seat following the ‘05 season? He’s about to get a refresher course in job insecurity.

Two Demerits: Joshua Cribbs
That two-point conversion was one of the coolest plays I’ve ever seen the Browns run, but it was Cribbs’ fumble on a punt return that allowed the Cardinals to extend their lead to 11 points late in the third quarter.

Cribbs made a rare error in the return game, and he looked like the greenhorn punt returner we saw at the end of last season. JC has to realize that when you run more than 10 or 12 yards to catch a punt, the risk becomes far greater than the reward. When in doubt, just let the ball go.

We probably won’t see this mistake from Cribbs again, so lesson learned. Plays like this make Cribbs’ fumble forgivable.

One Demerit: Leigh Bodden
Following Anderson’s fumble on the second drive of the game, the Browns’ defense had the Cardinals stopped. It would be fourth down from the Browns 37, and the Cardinals would probably elect to punt.

But Leigh Bodden earned a delay of game penalty for kicking the football after it bounced off the turf, apparently having watched The Big Green the previous evening. The penalty kept the Cardinals’ second touchdown drive alive, and without it, the Browns would have been left with a much more manageable one possession deficit.

A quick side note: is it just me, or has Bodden looked really, really bad at times this year? I remember him being a dominant cover corner in the past, even Chad Johnson gave him props back in 2005. CHAD JOHNSON! But this season, Bodden’s been getting torched all too often, and he’s frequently getting turned around by receivers.

In all fairness, Bodden has been a little banged up with that groin pull earlier this season. And to his credit, this looks to be the first season in which Bodden will play all 16 games, a notable achievement for a guy with a significant injury history. Still, it certainly wouldn’t hurt things for Bodden to regain his form circa ’05-’06.



This Week’s Heroes

Five Dog Bones: Rob Chudzinski
Remember when one of the excuses made by Maurice Carthon apologists was “it’s hard to call plays in the NFL for the first time”? The Chud begs to differ.

I can’t say enough about Rob Chudzinski. Chud is arguably the biggest reason for the offense’s improvement, and there’s no doubt that the guy has some serious game when it comes to calling plays.

That two-point conversion play was without a doubt the coolest and most inventive play the Browns have run during Romeo Crennel’s tenure. The deception of Anderson calling an audible was beautiful, and we finally got to see Cribbs throw a pass. Let’s hope this is a sign of things to come, as giving Cribbs a couple of plays each game in a Kordell Stewart-esque role (a “Slash” role, not a lousy interception machine role) could really give opposing defensive coordinators nightmares.

The early deficit forced Chudzinski’s hand a bit, as the running game became secondary. It’s clear that Chud wants to pound the rock on the ground as Old Man Winter makes his entrance; the Browns had run the ball 30 and 33 times, respectively, in the previous two contests.

Four Dog Bones: Braylon Edwards
Our favorite Michigan Wolverine had himself a huge day in the desert. Isn’t it weird seeing a Michigan guy in a stadium where they play BCS Bowls? It seems oddly out of place…

At any rate, Edwards has clearly mastered the Zen of the receiver, as his 149-yard day made him the first Browns receiver to break the 1,000-yard barrier since Antonio Bryant in 2005. Scary numbers: Edwards is only the Browns’ third 1,000-yard receiver since their 1999 revival (the other being Kevin Johnson in ‘01).

Edwards’ 67-yard touchdown catch and run was controversial, but down by contact or not, it was still an amazing play. It was nice to see Edwards grab seven catches; he had averaged only 4.33 catches over the previous three games. The Browns need to work to get Edwards 10-plus looks in every game, especially in the vertical passing game where he’s a threat to go the distance every single play.

Three Dog Bones: Sean Jones
Wow, Butch Davis actually got one right.

Jones is quietly putting together his second consecutive solid season. He’s arguably the Browns’ best playmaker on defense, as he’s a human missile in run support, and a ball hawk in coverage.

Jones doesn’t get the respect of guys like Bob Sanders, Ed Reed, and Troy Polamalu, but he’s the glue of the Browns’ defense. Without Jones…well, let’s just not entertain that theoretical.

Two Dog Bones: Kellen Winslow
Wow, Butch Davis actually got two right.

Winslow didn’t put up his usual numbers, as he had only three catches for 35 yards. But he did execute the two-point conversion perfectly. The Browns made it look like a direct snap to Cribbs, and Winslow blocked an Arizona linebacker to further sell the illusion of a Cribbs run. The Cardinals took the bait, Winslow released from his block, and he was all alone in the back of the end zone to consummate the conversion.

But Winslow’s biggest play of the game didn’t show up in the box score. It was a 37-yard “incompletion” in the end zone on the game’s final play. I won’t dance around the subject: it absolutely was a catch. There’s no doubt that Winslow was pushed out of bounds in midair, and had he not been pushed out, he would have landed with both feet comfortably in bounds. Touchdown, Browns! Phil Dawson kicks the extra point, we all go home happy. If only it was that simple…

The official didn’t make the force-out call, and the Browns’ fourth loss was finalized after a booth replay that was mostly for the sake of thoroughness. You can say the Browns got hosed, because yes, it was the incorrect call. But you’d be wrong, the Browns weren’t really hosed at all.

That’s not a call that Winslow’s going to get on the last play of the game. The final play is a completely different animal. Referees are extremely hesitant about making a game-changing call on the last play. To be called on the final play, a penalty needs to be visible to Stevie Wonder, or at least Snake Plissken. It’s the reason that Derrick Mason wasn’t called for mauling Asante Samuel on the final play of that Patriots/Ravens game on Monday night, and it’s why LeBron James and other hoopsters have to put up with anything and everything that doesn’t qualify as an assault charge on the final play of a basketball game. Whether it’s right or wrong, the refs usually let the players determine what happens on the last play of the game.

Lone Bone: Ken Whisenhunt
The Cardinals are now tied with the Lions and Vikings for the NFC’s second Wild Card spot. Considering the remaining schedules for the three teams, the Cards are my pick to grab that final spot. And although the NFC is weak enough that Notre Dame might be able to break .500, Arizona averaged only five wins during the previous five seasons, so just being in the playoff conversation is a major achievement for that franchise.

No doubt, Whisenhunt’s Cardinals have overcome some obstacles. Number one, they’re just not very talented on defense. Second, their starting quarterback struggled, and then suffered a season-ending collarbone injury in the fifth game of the season. And C, Kurt Warner has been limited by torn ligaments in his left elbow, leading to Warner playing with his left arm in a cumbersome brace. Despite the hurdles, Arizona has managed to stay afloat at 6-6, and three of those six losses were by three points or less. All in all, a very impressive head coaching debut.

Whisenhunt made a great coaching move on Sunday, instructing Neil Rackers to keep the football away from Joshua Cribbs on kickoffs. The Cardinals were basically conceding that the Browns would start their drives at the 30-yard line or better, but they kept the ball out of the hands of the decidedly explosive Cribbs. It’s a decision that more teams should probably make. If it were me, I’d squib kick every time because Cribbs has had problems handling squibs in the past.


Standings

Total Dog Bones
Offensive Line---23
Kellen Winslow---18
Joshua Cribbs---17 (t)
Braylon Edwards---17 (t)
Derek Anderson---16


Net Dog Bones
Offensive Line---21
Kellen Winslow---18
Joshua Cribbs---15
Braylon Edwards---13
Rob Chudzinski---12


Total Demerits
Romeo Crennel---25
Derek Anderson---16 (t)
Defensive Line---16 (t)
Brian Billick---12
Todd Grantham---10


Net Demerits
Romeo Crennel---17
Brian Billick---12 (t)
Defensive Line---12 (t)
Todd Grantham---9
Andra Davis---8


Playoff Picture
The Browns’ loss to the Cardinals coupled with Pittsburgh’s win over Cincinnati realistically squelched the Browns’ opportunity to win the AFC North. For the Browns to achieve an AFC North coup, Pittsburgh must lose three out of its last four games, and the Browns have to run the table. The chances of that coming to fruition are faint, at best.

The good news is that although the Browns lost and are now tied with Tennessee for the second Wild Card spot, they still have a great shot at making the playoffs. If I had to put a rough number on it, I’d certainly give the Browns better than a 50-50 chance.

Other than Cleveland and Tennessee, the only real competitor for that second Wild Card spot appears to be the Buffalo Bills, who have quietly compiled a 6-6 record. Buffalo plays Miami this week, and if the Bills and Browns both win, it will set up a week 15 matchup at Cleveland Browns Stadium that could very well decide who’s in the driver’s seat for that last Wild Card spot. Denver and Houston are both 5-7, and have a remote chance of getting back into Wild Card conversation.

Games that the Browns should keep an eye on this week include Miami at Buffalo, Tampa Bay at Houston, Carolina at Jacksonville, San Diego at Tennessee, and Kansas City at Denver.

Up Next: 12/9, At New York Jets, The Meadowlands, 4:15
The New York Jets are not a good football team. If you remember, the Browns beat them last year when the Browns were completely rancid. Sure, the Jets made the playoffs last season, but much of that was attributable to a weak schedule, and some smoke and mirrors cleverness from wunderkind head coach Eric Mangini.

This year, the Jets aren’t sneaking up on anyone (except the Steely McBeams) and they’re gunning for a top five draft pick at 3-9. It’s worth mentioning that two of those wins were against the Miami Minnows.

At any rate, the Browns are still a young, inexperienced team, so any road game could potentially be difficult. That said, the Jets don’t really do anything well; they’re twenty-eighth in total offense and twenty-fifth in total defense. But the Jets are still scrappy, and they have been in several close games, as seven of their games have been decided by a touchdown or less.

New York’s second year quarterback, Oregon alumnus Kellen Clemens, has struggled since taking over for Chad Pennington, the quarterback who once earned the emphatic approval of a frisky Joe Namath. (I want to kiss you…YEEEAH!)

Clemens has only four touchdowns against seven interceptions, and New York’s new acquisition at running back, Thomas Jones, hasn’t seen much daylight, averaging only 3.6 yards per carry. The Jets have two capable receivers in Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles, but they haven’t seen the football very much with Clemens under center.

Number two running back Leon Washington, a former Seminole in his second season, is arguably New York’s most explosive player, and he handles all the punt and kick returning duties. Washington has three kickoff returns for touchdowns this season, and is averaging a robust 30.6 yards per return.

This is a team that the Browns absolutely should beat, and they should do so by multiple touchdowns. The porous New York defense allows over 141 yards per game on the ground, so expect Rob Chudzinski to serve the New Yawkers a main course of Jamal Lewis, with a Jason Wright garnish.

The Browns need to beat a bad team in blowout fashion, something they’ve failed to do so far this season, in order to boost their confidence heading into the final three games. The Jets might be just what the doctor ordered.

My Call: Browns 38, Jets 17

Stupid Bowls

NFL Films has released a boxed set called America's Game, a 40-disc epic where each installment documents the season of the eventual Super Bowl Champion, I through XL. Just what I want, 40 discs of some other stupid team winning the Super Bowl and not so much as an orange helmet even appearing. No word on whether it comes with pins to poke your eyeballs with as you watch.

I love pro football, but watching other clubs repeatedly earning the glory of Super Bowl victory is not my idea of a good time. Think about it: the entire set goes for $140, meaning that as part of the deal I'm shelling out $17.50 for a 5-disc retrospective of the steelers' championship-winning squads. No thanks.

That was a touchdown